LOS ANGELES.–Waiting for an expected Iranian retaliatory strike for the April 1 Israeli hit on the Al-Quds headquarters at the Damascus, Syria Iranian embassy killing 12, including two Al-Quds generals, 81-year-old President Joe Biden warned Iran. At this point, there’s nothing the U.S. or Israel can do to stop what looks like an imminent Iranian attack. But, if true to form, Iran’s 84-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will not attack directly but use his Houthi proxy force to do the dirty work. Since the Oct. 7 war with Hamas broke out Oct. 7, Houthis have been using Iranian drone and missiles to disrupt commercial shipping in the Red Sea, forcing the world’ largest shipping companies, like Copenhagen-based Maersk, to eschew the Red Sea and reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, costing shipping companies untold millions in added shipping costs.
U.S. intel picked up movement from Iran of Cruise missiles and drones, moving into position to hit Israeli infrastructure from spots outside Iran. Ayatollah Khamenei is worried about attacking Israel from inside Iran, prompting retaliatory strikes from Israel and the U.S. Dealing with enough unrest around Iran, Ayatollah wants no part of a wider war that could fuel revolution in Iran. For the last two years since the Basij militia beating death of 22-year-old Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini, Ayatollah has cracked down on dissent all over Iran. Any war with the U.S. or Israel could spark more revolution in Iran, with growing number of Iranians discontent with mullah rule. Israel has been dealing with almost daily attacks to its northern border by Lebanon-based Hezbollah, more confident in dealing with Hezbolah’s 63-year-old Supreme Leader Hassan Nasrallah.
President Biden was asked whether a strike by Iran or its proxies was imminent. “I don’t want to get secure information, but my expectation is sooner or later,” telling Iran, “don’t.” Biden has no control of what Iran does or doesn’t do with respect to Israel, knowing that Iran hijacked an Israeli-flagged freighter in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage into the Persian Gulf, often patrolled by Iranian swift-boats. “Whoever harms us, we will harm them,” said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at an Israeli airbase. “We are prepared both defensively and offensively,” serving notice to the Ayatollah that any attack from Tehran would be met with a corresponding strike inside Iran from Israel. For that reason, it’s doubtful that Iran would strike Israel directly but, instead, direct its Houthi militia to strike Israel from outside Iran’s sovereign territory.
Former Mossad security service official Sima Shine, said “it was a dangerous moment for the region and the most worried she has been.” Shine thinks anxiety is high in Israel and Iran, not knowing the extent of Iran’s eventual retaliation. “They [Iran] will try to do it on the military or some military asset,” Shine said. “But the question will be the damage. If there would be many injured people, killed or injured, think it has the potential for huge escalation,” admitting neither side wants a wider conflict. Ayatollah must respond to Israel’s April 1 strike or lose any credibility as the world chief state terror sponsor. U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of State Charles Q. Brown said the U.S. “is really trying to avoid war,” yet warning Iran if they attack Israel directly, the prospects of retaliatory strikes on Tehran escalate where a wider war in the region is possible.
Brown said is role is to prepare and plan for any contingency in the fluid situation now happening in the Middle East. “This is part of the dialogue that I have with my counterparts within the region, to include the Israeli chief of defense, who I talk to yesterday,” Brown said. “My role, as the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, is to plan and prepare,” Brown said. “That’s the one think we do very well,” serving notice to the Ayatollah that the U.S. is ready for any Iranian action. Israeli Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Herzl Haalevi said he too is ready for any Iranian contingency. “The IDF is very strongly prepared, both offensively and defensively, against any threat,” Herzl said in a statement.” “The IDF continues to monitor closely what is happening in Iran and different areas, constantly preparing to deal with exist and potential threats in coordination with the United States Armed Forces,” Herzl said.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.