LOS ANGELES.–Former U.N. Amb. and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, 51, backed by the anti-Trump lobby, promised to keep going in the GOP primaries, no matter what the results. She’s already lost in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada by big margins but Haley operates on a different timetable or kind of arithmetic. Without a admitting it, Haley talks about counting primary votes but, in reality, waits-and-hopes that 77-year-old President Donald Trump face-plants, largely from one of his many legal problems. Trump’s upcoming trial in Manhattan for hush money payments made in 2016 to former adult film star Stormy Daniels could result in a felony conviction. Prevailing wisdom expects that with a felony conviction it would all but end Trump’s 2024 run. Whether a criminal conviction stops him or not, it would become clear to the vast majority of independent voters that Trump is no longer viable.
So, no matter what Haley says, she waiting to see what happens to Trump in the next few months, not so much in the primaries but in his many pending legal cases. “I refuse to quit,” Haley said. “I feel no need to kiss the ring. I have no fear of Trump’s retribution. I not looking for anything from him,” Haley said, knowing she has the anti-Trump bankroll as long as she wants it. It makes you wonder by former GOP candidates 61-year-old former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis didn’t take the same approach. Surely, Christie’s anti-Trump campaign was funded by the same folks as Haley. Christie and DeSantis decided to call it quits, not wanting, like Haley, to face the kind of humiliation from losing badly to Trump. Haley as an unlimited bankroll should she continue to use it. Haley hasn’t ruled out serving as Trump’s running mate.
Forget about the delegate math to win the GOP nomination, Haley’s sticking to her guns, at least for now, until after the Feb. 24 South Carolina primary. She’s vowed to stay in until Super Tuesday March 5 when 874 out of the 2,429 delegates, amounting to 15 states vote. It’s conceivable Haley would be blown out on Super Tuesday but, with her Trump face-plant strategy, why should she care? Haley now sees herself as picking up carnage should Trump fall due to his many legal problems or some other medical mishap. Haley knows she only picked up a few delegates in New Hampshire because independents were allowed to vote, largely anti-Trump votes. While the same thing could happen on Super Tuesday, the math doesn’t look good for the former accountant. Haley’s strategy is based on hoping that Trump gets convicted of at least of one felony starting in Manhattan March 25.
Haley has been spurred to stay in the race knowing that Trump has less of a chance in the general election than he does in the GOP primaries. “Instead of asking me what states I’m gonna win, why don’t we ask how he’s gonna win a general election after spend a full year in a courtroom,” Haley said. Republicans voters aren’t too happy with Haley dividing the party, reflecting the fact that the GOP has real divisions when it comes to Trump. Haley wouldn’t keep her campaign going if she were not bankrolled by anti-Trump money. “People are not looking six months down the road when these court cases have take place, He’s going to be in a courtroom all of March, April, May and June. How in the world do you win a general election when these cases keep going and the judgments keep coming?” Haley asked. Haley’s strategy is simply letting Trump legal battles play out.
Haley’s strategy is one of attrition hoping that Trump gets caught in his legal sticky wicket, convicted on felonies, viewed as unacceptable to voters. Some of Trump backers could dismiss his charges, but the vast majority of GOP and independent voters won’t vote for a convicted felon, whether they think the prosecution was unfair or rigged. “As hard as it is to envision a scenario in which she wrests the nomination from Trump [at the convention] there isn’t much precedent for a nominee with four criminal indictments either: A felony conviction would breathe oxygen into the case for Haley . . “ said Politico’s Charlie Mahtesian. Newer Trumpers have put all their eggs into the Haley basket, hoping she can outlast the former president. Trump legal problems are all theoretical until a jury of his peers convicts him on one or more felony charges.
Trump finds himself behind the Eight Ball no matter how optimistic he appears in campaign rallies or in front of cameras. Haley’s strategists are all on the same page to outlast Trump as he dies by a thousand cuts, with at least one of his criminal cases ending in conviction. Haley won’t give up until she’s told by her donors the money has run out. Because that won’t happen anytime soon, she’s in the race for the long haul, not because she galvanizes much support compared to Trump but only waiting for an impending legal mishap to do Trump in. Haley has little chance of getting many delegates going forward unless Trump gets convicted of at least one or more felony charges. When compared with Biden in the general election, Haley runs ahead largely because a sizable percentage of voters think Biden is too old to serve another four years in the White House.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
