Former President Donald Trump, 77, has defied all odds about the 2024 presidential race, holding a commanding leads against his GOP rivals without showing up at one presidential debate. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R-Nj.) goaded Trump into showing up, calling Trump a lily-livered coward for not showing his face on the debate stage. But with a commanding 45% lead in the polls, Trump doesn’t have to go down to Christie’s level at only 2.6%, nearly a point less that former Vice President Mike Pence (R-Ind.)when he dropped out Oct. 28. Christie and other GOP candidates tried to make the case to voters that Trump was not electable in a national vote, encouraging other GOP candidates like former U.N. Amb. Nikki Haley (R-S.C.) or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fl.)to replace Trump as the GOP front-runner but nothing has happened.
Former House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), 53, came out forcefully opposing Trump’s candidacy precisely because he didn’t think Trump could win a national election. Ryan had his run-ins with Trump in 2016 when Trump unexpectedly upended former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Ryan joined the “never Trump” crowd with 77-year-old Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Ut.), claiming Trump was incapable of winning another national election. But things have changed dramatically since 2020 when 80-year-old President Joe Biden beat Trump in what’s turned out to be a backlash vote due to the Covid-19 global pandemic and a racial media frenzy from the Minneapolis police death of George Floyd. No one talks about how those two major events, the Covid-19 global pandemic and George Floyd murder, soured enough independent voters on Trump.
Now that Biden has had nearly three years in office, voters have got a chance to reset their attitudes, especially of whether they’d trade the U.S. economy and world peace to vote for Biden a second time. “Looks like I was wrong,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tx.), commenting about Trump polling over Biden in battleground states. “It’s still a long way off, but today it looks like he’s going to be the nominee,” Cronyn said, admitting that he didn’t think Trump would dominate the 2024 race. “Trump’s lead in the polls over Biden has eroded the argument that Trump can’t win a general election,” said former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-Minn. Pawleny admitted that Trump opponents have little chance of beating him, because something mysterious has happened, given that Trump faces 91 felonies, something that doesn’t bother primary voters. So what has happened with GOP primary voters to leave Trump on top by a lot?
Looks like GOP voters think Trump has been framed by the government, targeted by the liberal press to sabotage his campaign. Trump’s backers think he’s been unfairly targeted by the government and either don’t believe the charges or see them as a partisan witch hunt has Trump has said for a long time. Most GOP voters now believe that Trump has what it takes to beat Biden. In 2020, Trump was savaged by the press for the Covid-19 global pandemic that ended up killing over a million Americans. Why Trump was blamed by Covid is anyone’s guess. But voters have to blame someone. Voters recalled Dr. Antthony Faucid and Washington Post journalist Bob Woodward blaming Trump for the nation’s Covid crisis. Fair or not, Trump got the blame and voters punished him on Election Day. Things are different now with most voters focused on high gas prices and a sputtering economy.
Trump’s resilience in the polls reflects the degree of dissatisfaction with Biden, where both Democrats and Republicans see Biden as to too old to run for president. When voters say Biden is too old, they’re not talking about chronological age, they’re talking about his diminished caoacuty. When it comes to Trump, who’s only four years younger that Biden, most voters don’t find age a factor at all for Trump. Democrats like to talk about some of gaffes on the campaign trail but, compared to Biden, Trump like a track star in comparison. “Right now I’d say it looks like Trump’s going to carry it,” said Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), dismissing any fantasy that any of Trump’s rivals would pull out the win. Republicans have no one else to run against Biden except Trump. Whatever happened in 2020, the conditions have changed with the economy and world falling apart under Biden.
Trump’s commanding lead in the polls attests to his superior political skills, known for staging rallies, keeping large audiences entertained like no other candidate. All of Trump’s rivals hoped he would be done in by indictments, handing an advantage to Haley or DeSantis, two of Trump’s closest rivals. But Trump’s backers don’t want to direct their votes to any other candidate, largely because they want the Ukraine War to end and the economy to reciver. Under Biden, voters have grown anxious of the future with high gas prices and inflation still robbing their buying power. Voters know that despite all the Democrats and press arguments against Trump, the country was much better off before Biden took office. His proxy war and oil embargo against the Kremlin created the worst inflation in 40 years. With gas prices and mortgage rates through the roof, voters can’t risk four more years of Biden.
About the Author.
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
