Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif), House Minority leader since 2018, has been rejected twice today by conservative Republicans, falling some 15 votes short in his bid to replace 82-year-old former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Republicans were handed a real gift in the Nov. 8, 2022 Midterm election winning back the House by a narrow margin, put pulling of a remarkable feat. Republicans lost the House in 2018 while 76-year-old former President Donald Trump was in power. Trump could not explain why such a popular president would lose the House, making his final two years unproductive to say the least. McCarthy, a loyal Trump supporter, saw his fortunes turn when he was finally in line to take over the House. But conservatives want no part of Trump’s continued influence on the GOP, worried that if McCarthy winds up House speaker it could influence the 2024 vote.
McCarthy needs 218 House votes failing to reach the necessary votes on two ballots. Whether he can turns thing around is anyone’s guess. McCarthy’s loyalty to Trump makes him radioactive with certain members of the GOP’s conservative wing. House Minority Whip Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) looks as the consensus candidate, if he decides to toss his hat into the ring. McCarthy has the backing of conservative 58-year-old Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), another big Trump supporter. Conservative Republicans want a new look in 2023, don’t want to revert back to MAGA Republicans, especially knowing that the next speaker has some clout when it comes to picking the GOP’s 2024 nominee. Conservatives want to return the GOP back to its traditional roots, as far away from Trump as possible. McCarthy and Jordan are considered Trump loyalists, out of step with GOP conservatives.
Rep. Matt Gaetz, under investigation for sex trafficking in home state of Florida, endorse Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) something Jordan didn’t expect Conservatives want to move the GOP as far away from Trump as possible, knowing McCarthy and Jordan’s loyalty to the former president. Other Trump supporters like Rep. Elsie Stepfanki (R-N.Y,) another Trump loyalist threw her support behind McCarthy for House Speaker. Stefanik said McCarthy “has what it takes” to lead the GOP. “No one worked harder for this majority that Kevin McCarthy,” Stefanik said. Democrats, led by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y) quietly gloated with Republicans looking in disarray before the big votes. Jeffries won all Democrats 212 votes in a show of unity behind the party’s new minority leader. McCarthy still has a chance of winning House Speaker if no other consensus candidate emerges.
Republicans want a clean the slate in 2023, letting go of past loyalties to Trump and his MAGA Republicans. “If you wants to drain the swamp, you can’t put the biggest alligator in control of the exercise,” said Gaietz, another big Trump supporter. Trump often used the “drain the swap” metaphor to toss out dinosaur Republicans wanting to continue the GOP’s Democrat-like big spending ways. Fiscal conservatives want new budget priorities, certainly not 80-year-old President Joe Biden’s liberal agenda. Republicans want to revisit the 2010 midterms when a new Tea Party GOP majority swept in Congress during Obama’s first term. With only a 222-seat majority, McCarthy can afford to lose only four seats, currently finds himself 15 votes shy of the votes needed to become House Speaker. House’s conservative Freedom Caucus doesn’t like McCarthy’s compromises with Democrats.
Emerging as a GOP dark horse, 57-year-old Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) has the consensus following, especially after shot June 14, 2017 and almost dying at a GOP baseball game. Republicans admire Scalise resiliency from his injuries, winning admiration on both sides of the aisle. McCarthy failed to win a bid for House Speaker in 2015 to replace 73-year-old former House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio). Scalise’s office denied that he was competing with McCartthy for House Speaker, noting the two were on the same page on most issues. “This is a lot more important than about one person,” said Doug Heye, a former Republican leadership senior aide. “It’s about whether Republicans will be able to govern.” Heye worries that if the GOP leans too far right, it will make getting anything done impossible. McCarthy is generally seen as a more moderate GOP choice.
McCarthy still has a good shoot of becoming speaker in the next votes because of pressure on the objecting conservatives to get down to business in the new Congress. There’s no other consensus House Speaker candidate that has the experience of McCarthy to advance the GOP agenda, whatever the differences between party factions. Imposing a one-vote rule on ousting the speaker makes no sense, allowing one voce to drown out majority rule. Once the band of objecting conservatives realize that they’re holding up the GOP agenda, they’ll begin to conform to majority rule. McCarthy isn’t the perfect House Speaker but neither was Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) or Rep.John Boehner (R-Ohio.). McCarthy needs to hang in there and let the process play out, heeding his party’s right wing concerns, knowing that there’s not much choice for a consensus candidate other than him.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
