Former U.N. ambassador and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, 74, after traveling to Moscow in September, believes that 31-year-old WNBA star Brittney Griner and former Marine Paul Whelan could be released by the year’s end. Richardson offered zero insights into his prediction, even telling CNN he hates to make forecasts but still thinks the prisoner swap could happen by year’s end. Richardson said he believes the U.S. will have to do a two-for-two prisoner swap, not the one offered by 59-year-old Secretary of State Amtony Blinken that offered 55-year-old arms smuggler Viktor Bout in exchange for Gnriner and Whelan. News of a two-for-two swap has not been confirmed by the U.S. government, nor has Richardson’s trip been approved by the State Department. Richardson expressed “cautious optimism,” but offered no specifics to back up his forecasts.
Griner was arrested Feb. 7 in Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport for possessing cannabis laced vape-cartridges, something highly illegal in Russia. Griner told her Moscow judge that she packed the vape-cartridges inadvertently in he luggage but had been prescribed the drug for pain relief under Arizona’s medical marijuana law. Griner was convicted July 7 of violating Russia’s drug laws, then sentenced Aug. 4 to nine years in a Russian penal colony. Griner’s wife Cherelle met with 79-year-old President Joe Biden Sept. 16, trying to reassure the family the U.S. government is doing everything humanly possible to get Brittney out. So when Richardson senses he has a hunch she’ll be out by year’s end, a lot has to change between the U.S. and Moscow. As it stands right now, 70-year-old Russian President Vladimirj Putin is in no rush to cut any deals with the White House.
Richardson didn’t mention a thing about the extraordinary circumstances of trying to get Brittney out in the middle of a U.S. proxy war against the Russian Federation. Things changed March 26 in Warsaw Poland when Biden said Putin must be removed from power. Then, one month later April 26, his 69-year-old Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told a Ramstein, Germany audience that the aim of the U.S. military in Ukraine was to degrade the Russian military to the point it could no longer wage war. If that’s not a declaration of war, then what is? Richardson knows that his hostage negotiation strategy got a lot harder with Biden at war with the Russian Federation. Biden admitted Oct. 6 that the world faces Armageddon if Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Biden said he took Putin threats to use nuclear weapons seriously but offered no way of deescalating the situation.
Griner and Whelan find themselves caught between a rock-and-a-hard place, knowing they’re hostages in the middle of a hot war with Russia. No matter how much the U.S. pretends it only supplies cash-and-lethal arms to Uraine, Biden, in fact, fights a deadly proxy war using Ukrainian troops to topple the Putin government. Zelensky said last week that the only time he’d negotiate an end to the war is if Putin is removed from power. Ukraine’s 44-year-old President Volodymyr Zelensky knows without U.S. funding and arms shipments, the war would stop. Zelensky knows that the U.S. foots the bills to the Ukraine government and war effort. Calling for Putin’s removal only antagonizes the current standoff, leaving Russia controlling some 25% of Ukrainian sovereign territory. Zelensky is in no position to call any of the shots, since the U.S. subsidizes his government and war against Russia.
When it comes to getting Griner and Whelan out of Russia prison, Putin must see Biden stop funding the Ukraine war. There’s currently no deal that’s good enough to convince Putin to finish and prisoner swap with the U.S. As long as Biden fights a bloody proxy war to remove Putin from power, Griner and Whelan will rot in prison without any end in sight. If Biden really wants to get Griner and Whelan out, he needs to end the conflict by starting ceasefire and peace talks in a neutral country. Biden and Zelensky have showed no interest in ceasefire and peace talks because Putin controls some 25% of Ukraine’s sovereign territory. Biden said Ukraine must win more territory on the battlefield to have any leverage at peace talks. When Biden talks of Armageddon, he acts like he’s not able to deescalate the situation. Any announcement about ceasefire or peace talks would deescalate the threat of nuclear war.
Richardson’s trip to Moscow was without White House blessings, only going as a private citizen. As long as Biden continues his proxy war against the Russian Federation, it’s doubtful Putin would negotiate a prisoner swap to get Griner out. Only real progress toward a ceasefire and peace talks would convince Putin to negotiate in good faith to get Griner and Whelan out. Prisoner swap negotiations can only happen if Biden’s willing to move the Ukraine War to the peace table. Continuing the proxy war against the Kremlin gives Putin no incentive to do anything with Griner or Whelan. Richardson hopes there’s progress on a ceasefire and peace deal before Ukraine’s long winter where combat operations slow down. If Biden really wants to get Griner and Whelan back home, he needs to move the Ukraine War to the peace table where Biden’s proxy war ends.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
