U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency [DIA] saya 69-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin can’t complete his mission in Ukraine because he can’t occupy or conquer Kiev, or, most recently, the Northeastern Kharkiv region. So any of Putin accomplishments in seven months of war are diminished by the DIA because in the first four days of war Kiev pushed back Russian forces from conquering Ukraine’s capital. ”We’re coming to the point right now where I think Putin is going to have to revise what his objectives are for this operation,” said Lit. Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency [DJA]. “Because it’s pretty clear right now that he’s not going to be able to do what he initially intended to do,” Berrier said. Imagine that, Berrier calls Putin’s seven months of war a failure because in the first few days of war he decided to pivot away from Kiev.
So, when you listen to Ukrainian, U.S., EU or U.K. military analysts they give the same story that Putin hasn’t accomplished his main goal of conquering Kiev. But Putin made clear from the outset, he was interested in his special military operation of liberating Donbas, specifically Russian speaking enclaves in Donetsk and Luhansk from Kiev’s control. Putin’s forces over the last seven months have swarmed Dobnas and the Black sea coast, seizing control of Ukraine’s strategic ports. Does that sound like Putin has squandered his time in Ukraine? “The Russians planned for a an occupation, not necessarily an invasion, and that has set them back,” Berrier said, saying nothing about the 25% of Ukrainian territory lost to the Russian Federation. Ukraine’s 44-year-old President Volodymyr Zelensky talks about Putin’s failure to takeover Kiev but says nothing about losing the Black Sea coast.
Berrier won’t level with the American public about the real facts-on-the-ground in Ukraine. Repeating the same Kiev talking points doesn’t change what’s on the ground with Russian controlling 25% of Ukraine’s sovereign land, including the Black Sea coast and all its strategic ports. “He’s coming to a “decision point,” Berrier said. “What that decision will be we don’t know. But that will largely drive how long this conflict lasts,” ignoring Putin’s comments in Samarkand, Uzbekistan at the Shanghai Cooperation conference. Putin warned Ukraine that more so-called “counteroffensives” would be met with a firm response, going after Kiev’s infrastructure. Berrier doesn’t consider that there’s method of Putin’s madness, seizing all of Ukraine’s coastline an its strategic ports. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres wants Putin to allow Ukrainian and Russian grain shipments.
All Western governments and news outlets are on the same page about Putin losing the war, all because in the first few days he didn’t conquer Kiev. Listening the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Miley say Putin has lost the war shows the kind to disinformation and propaganda coming out Washington. Not one U.S., EU or U.K. news source admits that Zelensky has lost staggering amounts of Ukrainian territory. “I don’t think we should underestimate Putin’s adherence to his original agenda, which was to control Ukraine. I don’t think we’ve seen any reason to believe he has moved off that,” said CIA Deputy Director David Cohen. Cohen interjects some rationality into Berrier’s argument that Putin must pivot, change gears, rethink his objective about not conquering Kiev or Kharkiv. Putin isn’t likely to unleash nukes on the Ukraine battlefield anytime in the future.
Why the CIA doesn’t take Putin at his word in Samarkand, Ubekistan when he says he’s going to get tougher on Ukraine’s infrastructure. Putin has more than enough conventional missiles and strategic bombers to take out all of Ukraine electricity plants, natural gas storage facilities and oil refineries. Zelensky walks a dangerous tightrope thinking that Russian military has been defeated in Kiev and Kharkiv. Kiev and Kharkiv has no strategic influence to Putin, other than saying he controls the entire country. As the war stands now, Zelensky would be fighting for years to get back all the lost territory on the Black Sea coast. Going to the peace table in Istanbul or anywhere else offers no guarantees to Zelensky that he’ll get back his territory lost over the last seven months. Instead of the Berrier or Cohen fantasizing about Putin’s next move, they should evaluate what’s left in his arsenal.
Estimating the depth of Putin’s arsenal has proved Kiev, Washington, Brussels and London wrong. All three predicted that Russia doesn’t have the personnel or equipment to keep up the fight against Ukraine. Yet Ukraine has not, through its ongoing counteroffensive, retaken any of the lost territory on the Black Sea coast. Turkey’s 69-year-old President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the West should not underestimate Putin. Kiev, Washington, Brussels and London like to speculate about Putin’s terminal illness but he seems vigorous and fit making public appearances and press conferences. So with all the disinformation and propaganda coming out of the West, Zelensky can take to the bank that Putin will continue the fight for Ukraine’s territory. If Zelensky wants the war to end, he’s approach Putin about a ceasefire and move the conflict to the peace table where there’s compromise in the works.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.