After sentenced to nine years on a drug charge, 31-year-old WNBA star Brittney Griner got some good news from 72-year-old Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, saying Russia was ready to work behind the scenes on a prisoner swap to get Griner and 52-year-old convicted spy Paul Whelan out of Russian prison. Griner looked deflated in her steel cage when the Moscow Judge sentenced her to nine years in a Russian penal colony. U.S. officials, led by 59-year-old Secretary of State Antony Blinken, has been trying Griner’s case in the media, thinking it puts pressure on the Kremlin to come up with a deal to release Griner. “We are ready to discuss this topic, but within the framework of the channel that was agreed upon by presidents Putin and Biden,” Lavrov said on a visit to an economic forum in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Lavrov said that overt public discussion was counterproductive.
President Joe Biden, 79, continues to run his mouth, saying yesterday on Brittney’s sentence that she’s been “wrongfully accused.” Kremlin officials reject the White House narrative that Griner was “wrongfully detained,” suggesting that Russian drug laws don’t count. Kremlin Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that U.S. drug laws don’t apply in Russia. So, when it comes to saying Griner was “wrongfully detained,” it makes getting Brittney out of jail more difficult. “If the Americans decide to once against resort to public diplomacy . . . that is their business and I would even say that is their problem,” Lavrov said, warning Biden and Blinken that putting a deal together must be done privately. Blinken thinks because he made Lavrov an offer for a two-for-one swap with convicted Russian arms smuggler Viktor Bout, it’s the exact deal Russia should take to get Griner out of jail.
When you look who’s in a more vulnerable position, the U.S. has a weak bargaining position because Russia holds Griner in custody. So, no matter how good of a deal Biden or Blinken offered, it’s irrelevant because it doesn’t take into account what works for the Russian side. Russian President Vladimir Putin, 69, knows that Biden is under enormous political pressure to get Griner out of jail. “The Americans have already made that mistake, suddenly deciding to use megaphone diplomacy to resolve these issues,” said Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Biden said yesterday that Griner’s sentence was “unacceptable,” knowing that it hurts Brittney’s chances of getting out anytime soon. Biden and Blinken want to call the shots but they have no leverage over the Russian Federation. Whether admitted to or not, the Ukraine War hangs over everything like a dark cloud.
Biden and Blinken refuse to acknowledge that the Ukraine war as interfered with any deal for Griner’s release. Putin and the Kremlin know that the U.S. supplies Ukraine unlimited cash-and-arms to fight a proxy war against the Russian Federation. When Biden said publicly in Warsaw, Polcand March 26 that Putin should not remain in power, it complicated the Ukraine War and extraneous issues like prisoner swaps. There’s nothing “normal” about U.S.-Russian relations when Biden pays Ukraine to fight a proxy war to topple Putin’s government. U.S. officials want to detach any prisoner swap from the ongoing Ukraine War But, the 800 pound gorilla in the room, Biden’s war against the Russian Federation looms over everything. Biden isn’t about to change the Ukraine War to negotiate a prisoner swap for Griner. Blinken keeps saying the U.S. offer was a “serious proposal,” something debated in Moscow.
When it comes to deal-making, both sides must feel that the arrangement suits the present circumstances. If Lavrov asked Blinken to back off sending lethal weapons to Kiev, he would feel blindsided on any deal for a risoner swap. But because U.S.-Russian relations are at a new post WW II low, Biden and Blinken can’t ignore the context in which they’re trying to consummate a deal. “This is not how they are resolved,” said Peskov, referring to trying to put a deal together through the media. Calling Griner “wrongfully detained” or saying the court ruling was “unacceptable,” Biden sets back the cause of getting Brittney out. “We urge them to accept it,” said National Security Council Spokesman John Kirby. “They should have accepted it weeks ago when we first made it,” Kirby said, doing the exact wrong thing that makes putting a deal together more difficult.
No matter how far up the chain-of-command, White House officials needs to stop lambasting Russian officials in the media, making demands or saying publicly how they offered such a good deal to get Griner out. Whether admitted to or not by the White House, they need to get on the same page and stop pandering to the U.S. press, demanding updates and public statements that make a deal less likely. Given the state of war between the White House and Russia, it’s inconceivable that Putin would negotiate a prisoner swap at this time. What if Putin said, if you want Brittney out, Biden needs to stop supplying lethal arms to Ukraine? Biden would probably reject those terms. But the conditions for an ordinary prisoner swap are not ideal, given the state of war between the U.S. and the Russian Federation. White House officials needs to impose a black out on all talks about any prisoner swap,
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
