Harvard University’s Schorenstein Center for Media, Politics and Public Policy evaluated the statements 417 Capitol Hill rioters, all of whom have been charged with felonies by the Justice Department. Harvard researchers reviewed the declassified arrest and court records, asking Capitol Hill rabble-rousers why they broke the law, smashing windows, desecrating government property and making a disorderly mess in the Capitol. Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wy.) immediately took credit for Harvard’s study, insisting the motive “was mostly correct in her assessment” that “Trump summoned the mob, assembled the mob and lit the flame of this attack,” Cheney said, going way beyond any conclusion made by Schorenstein Center researchers. Cheney’s extreme bias, leaping to wild conclusions about Trump planning and orchestrating the Jan. 6 riot, shows why the House Jan. 6 Select Committee has zero credibility.
No one in Harvard’s study had the temerity to conclude that Trump planned and orchestrated the Jan. 6 riot. All motives concluded were based on admissions on police or court reports provided for research purposes. “Far and away, we find that the two most commonly-citied reasons for breaching the U.S. Capitol were a desire to support Trump on Jan. 6 in D.C. and concerns about election integrity,” Harvard researchers conclude. Where does Cheney think the researchers validated her wild conclusions that Trump planned and orchestrated his riots with his ties to right wing groups like the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers? Reviewing thousands of police or court documents, the researchers concluded that rioters were motivated by their support of Trump, both in terms of personal liking [20.6%] and belief that election fraud had occurred [20.6%], also promoted by Trump
When you consider that an estimated one million Trump backers listened to his Jan. 6 speech on the Ellipse, less than 2,000 to 2,500 rioters broke the law, it’s obvious that most Trump supporters didn’t trying to stop the Electoral College certification of Biden’s Nov. 3, 2020 victory or, for that matter, vandalize the Capitol. Written by Joan Donovan, head of the Schorenstein Media Center, the analysis was the largest review of arrest records and court documents trying to infer a motive behind lawbreakers. Called “the largest and most far-reaching publicly available archive of social media posts, private messages, and direct quotes attributed to members of the mob: Their court documents, Donovan and her research assistants looked only at what arrested criminals told the police and courts. Donovan’s research reviewed social media posts in the days before the Jan. 6 mayhem
Donovan said that social media posts showed that Trump was the primary reason for the Capitol Hill riots, meaning his errant beliefs about election fraud, drove at least 400 Capitol rioters, out of over 2,000 participants, some more passive than others. “When we were crafting a research question, we really wanted to answer: What motivates the Jan. 6 defendants to go inside the Capitol?” Donvovan said. What Donovan and her assistants don’t get is that when arrested, defendants come up with their own motives, whether true or not. Even if some of the defendants say they came to D.C. to support Trump, that doesn’t mean that Trump planned and orchestrated the Jan. 6 Capitol riots. Donovan cites arrest or court documents stating why members of the Oath Keepers, Proud Boys and others came to hear Trump speak. “Trump said it was going to be wild!!!! It’s going to be wild!!!!!!,” Oath Keeper Kelly Meggs wrote. What does Meggs’s statements have to do with motives?
Telling the FBI why rioters breached the Capitol, criminal defendants have a perfect excuse for committing any crime: Blame it on Trump. Daniel “D.J.” Rodriguez from California told the FBI that Trump asked him to go to D.C. “Trump called us. Trump called us to D.C. on Jan. 6,” Rodriguez said. “If he’s the commander in chief and the leader of our country, and he’s calling for help—I though he was calling for help. I thought he was I thought were doing the right thing,” Rodriguez said, saying nothing about Trump told him to break into the Capitol. What utter nonsense for anyone to conclude anything from such wild statements. Rodriguez, like other criminal defendants caught red handed, say anything to law enforcement to get themselves off the hook. How convenient to blame Trump for why he broke the law. Trump certainly didn’t ask anyone to break the law, telling backers to protest peacefully.
Donovan can draw whatever conclusions she wants from her analysis but it’s preposterous to think that Trump asked anyone to break the law Jan. 6. When it comes to Rep. Liz Cheney, she’s already concluded the worst possible motive that Trump actually planned an executed the Jan. 6 riots. Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans anything, including a Harvard study, to prove their bias against Trump. Donovan’s study, at best, only draws inferences from FBI and court statements of criminal defendants charged with a large swath of crimes on Jan. 6, 2021. When criminal defendants tell law enforcement or courts their motives, they’re trying to get off the hook or get mitigated sentences. “What we’re trying to understand is really the new potent forms of political violence that can come from agitation online, that creates this kind of fervor . . .” Donovan said. Statements made to police and courts are often self-serving.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnit.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
