All the talk about Russia invading Ukraine for the second time comes from the anti-Kremlin Kiev government, hyping world leaders into thinking there’s an imminent Russian invasion in the works. No one in the West acknowledge what happened March 1, 2014 when 69-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian army to seize the Crimean Peninsula, a strategic piece of land adjoining the Black Sea and Sea of Azov where the Crimean Wars were fought 1853 to 1856, where a coalition of France, Ottoman Empire, Britain and Sardinia defeated the Russian Empire. Putin knows his history and isn’t about to repeat the same defeat in the 21st century. But the real story in Crimea happened when a CIA-backed coup led by former heavyweight boxer Vitali Klitschko toppled the Kremlin-backed government of Viktor Yanukovych in Kiev Feb. 22, 2014, while Putin hosted the Sochi Winter Olympics.
Western conspirators planned the pro-Western coup carefully while Putin couldn’t act soon enough to save Yanukovych’s pro-Kremlin government. One day after the games ended, Putin moved in the Russian army to annex Crimea, home to Russia’s warm water fleet in Sevastopol. “We don’t know what President Putin’s intentions are, but we do know what’s happened in the past,” 59-year-old Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters. “We do know the playbook of trying cite some illusory provocation from Ukraine or any other country and the using that as an excuse to do what Russia is planning to do all along,” creating the rich fiction that justifies NATO saber-rattling, the very thing that keeps Putin on the defensive. Blinken knows that the CIA-backed the pro-Western coup Feb. 22, 2014 that toppled the duly elected government of Viktor Yanukovych.
Blinken can’t possibly think or say with a straight face that there was no provocation in 2014 to annex the Crimean Peninsula. There’s nothing “illusory” about chasing Yanukovych out of Kiev, toppling the pro-Kremlin government. Blinken knows that the Russian Federation uses Crimea as a base for its warm water fleet. Any sudden change of government in Kiev certainly threatened the Russian Federation. There’s no threat to Crimea or the Russian navy base at Sevastopol at the moment, so the question about an imminent Russian invasion is overblown. ”There is a major risk of Russian military activity in Ukraine in the next few months. All the signs point to a major build up of military capability,” said Ivo Daalder former U.S. Amb. to NATO from 2009-2013. Whatever military build up near the Ukraine border in Russia is precisely designed to deter more NATO involvement in the Black Sea.
Russian wants no part of another invasion of Ukraine unless it’s defending its interests from a NATO incursion into the Black Sea region. Putin has made clear his red lines when it comes to Ukraine to keep NATO away from Ukraine. Ukraine’s 43-year-old President Volodymyr Zelensky has practically stood on his head to get NATO Secretary-General Jens Stotlenberg to accept Ukraine membership. Zelensky’s plan was to get NATO to fight a bloody war with the Russian Federation to return the Crimea to Kiev. Zelensky’s sick fantasy could play out if the Western Alliance doesn’t see clearly what the 43-year-old former comedian is trying to do. Stoltenberg has given Ukraine many excuses over the last seven years since Putin invaded Crimea. U.S. pundits warning about another Russian invasion look to do Ukraine’s bidding, knowing that they can’t get Crimea back without war.
Whatever troop build up near the Ukrainian border, it’s Putin’s way to telling NATO to stay out of the area. NATO officials don’t acknowledge that Russian-speaking enclaves in Crimea and the Donbass region want no part of the Kiev government. “One way or another, he [Putin] wants Ukraine neutralized,” said Fiona Hill, a former member of former President Donald Trump’s national security team. “You’ve got to take it seriously because Russia has crossed the Rubicon many times before when people said they wouldn’t,” Hill said, referring to Putin’s invasion of Georgia in 2008. Back then, it was Russian-speaking enclaves in South Ossetia and Abkhazia that wanted no part of pro-Western Mikail Saakashvili Tblisi government. Hill thinks it was the same situation as Crimea in 2014, but it clearly wasn’t. Had Klitskhko’s coup not occurred, Crimea would still be in Ukraine’s hands.
Ukraine has received $2.5 billion in security assistance since 2014, including offensive weapons. Ukraine is no match for the Russian army, nor, for that part, is it any match for NATO that has no stomach for confronting Russia on the battlefield. When you look at the big picture, Ukraine offers no strategic purpose to NATO or the U.S., making war with Russia indefensible. No matter how war hawks want to spin the situation, the U.S. or NATO has nothing to gain for going to war against Russia to defend Ukraine. Ukraine has more than border issues with Russia. Zelensky is furious at Putin for doing an end run on Ukraine’s natural gas business, opening up the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline with Germany. So when it comes to the U.S. or NATO fighting Ukraine’s battles, Zelensky needs to get back to serious diplomacy and work out his problems with Putin.
