U.K. Foreign Minister Dominic Raab, 47, said London would remain “calm and composed,” dealing with Iran after another round of aggression in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Raab said the U.K. would send a representative to 60-year-old President Ibarahm Raisi’s Aug. 5 inauguration in Tehran. Raab paraphrased the Queen’s message of “Keep Calm and Carry On,” reflecting Britian’s new role of peacemaker on the world stage. Because the U.S. has no diplomatic relations with Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, there will be no U.S. envoy at the event. Urging Raisi to get along with the West, Raab hoped Tehran would work with international partners toward improving international relations. Raab warned that more belligerent incidents in the Gulf would only cement Iran’s label as “pariah status.” Iran’s support of proxy war against Saudi Arabia and Israel has hurt its foreign relations.
Raab promised the U.K. would act “calm and composed, but we’re absolutely resolute and robust in terms of dealing with nefarious conduct that we’ve seen,” asking newly minted President Ibrahim Raisi to reach out to the West. But as Raab knows, 81-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khaemenei has final say on all state matters, foreign policy included. When Raisi takes his loyalty oath tomorrow, it’s not the Koran on the Iranian constitution, it’s to the Ayatollah. Killed in the Iranian attack Aug. 1 on the Israeli tanker, a Fijian-born U.K. citizen lost his life in the line of duty. Raab wants a coalition of the willing with the U.S. and European Union [EU] to deter Iran from more mischief in the Persian Gulf. Khamenei is still in retaliation mode after the U.S. Jan. 3, 2020 predator drone assassination of Al Qud’s leader 62-year-old Qassem Soleimani. Khamenei has a long memory for political assassinations.
Israel’s Nov. 30, 2020 robot machine-gun assassination of Iran’s chief nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrzadeh also weights on Khaemenei’s attack on the Israeli tanker in the Gulf of Oman. Tit-for-tat attacks are all-too-common with Iran, where the Ayatollah recalls the history behind the Aug. 19,1953 CIA assassination of Mohammed Mosaddegh, a socialist that wanted to nationalize Iran’s oil industry. So the history of tit-for-tat retaliation runs deep in Iran, not trusting anything the U.S. does to normalize relations with Tehran. Called the “butcher of Tehran,” Western officials have real misgivings about Raisi for his role as judge ordering executions of Iranian prisoners during the second phase of the Islamic Revolution in 1988. Britain plans to send its Iranian envoy to the inauguration tomorrow, irking Israel, whose tanker was hit Aug. 1 by an Iranian predator drone.
Speaking with 58-year-old Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Raab said they would work to “stop destabilizing behavior.” Both know that Israeli plays a long game with Iran, will eventually retaliate for Iran’s recent attack. Raab said that the U.K.and U.S. were “united in our condemnation of Tehran’s conduct, but said they would continue to work together to protect international peace and security,” steering clear of any kind of military response to Iran’s hostile acts. No one knows the direction Iran will go under Raisi, who pledged yesterday, to end the crippling U.S. sanctions that have hurt Iran’s economy. Working to end the sanctions means that Iran must stop terrorist acts in the Persian Gulf but, more importantly, get back to the Vienna talks to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA]. So far, Iran has shown no willingness to reduce its uranium enrichment.
Raab sounded optimistic, hoping that Raisi would turn a page when it came to the Vienna-based negotiations to return to uranium enrichment compliance under the JCOPA. “Under this new president, there is any opportunity to take steps to build up some confidence and goodwill with the rest of the international communist, or take steps further and further into pariah status,” Raab said. Raab has no more information than anyone else about what Raisi plans to do. But judging by the Ayatollah hand-picking Raisi as his presumed successor, it’s doubtful Raisi will do any-more-or-less than what’s permitted by Ayatollah Khamenei. Raab surely knows that like everyone from top-to-bottom in the Iranian regime, no one has any say other than the Ayatollah. If things couldn’t get done with a moderate like Hassan Rouhani, it’s doubtful that things will change under Raisi.
President Joe Biden has some big decisions to make when it comes to Iran. If he wants to keep the door open on Vienna peace talks, responding to Iran’s recent provocations in the Persian Gulf guarantees that Ayatollah Khamenei and his new President Raisi will not return to the table. Raisi expressed and interest in ending punitive economic sanctions. Surely he knows that more hostile incidents in the Persian Gulf or elsewhere make compromise in Vienna more difficult. British Gen. Sir. Nick Carter, head of U.K’s armed forces, said Iran “made a big mistake” by attacking an Israeli tanker in the Gulf of Oman. Carter sees the potential for a major escalation of tensions in the Gulf, leaving oil and currency markets jittery. “Ultimately, we have got to restore deterrence,” Carter said, signaling the West can only show restraint for so long before an altercation takes place.
