President Joe Biden’s (78), chief Vienna negotiator on a new Iranian Nuke Deal 58-year-old Robert Malley expressed doubt about the future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA], now languishing from inactivity, since Iran decided to take a hiatus of third-party negotiations. U.S. and Iran have no diplomatic relations but since former President Donald Trump cancelled the JCPOA May 8, 2018, Iran’s hard line government wants no part of the U.S. government. Iran’s 81-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khemenei inaugurates his successor tomorrow, as 60-year-old former Chief Justice Ibrahim Raisi replaces 72-year-old moderate Hassan Rouhani as Iran’s president. Malley has gotten that sinking feeling that the Ayatollah isn’t serious about negotiating in good faith to return to the 5% uranium enrichment limits dictated the Jul 15, 2015 JCPOA.
U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China and Germany, the so-called P5+1, have been pushing Washington to resume the JCPOA since Trump cancelled it in 2018. Trump cancelled the agreement primarily because one Iran call all the billions from the Obama administration, it went on a state terrorism binge, starting proxy wars with Saudi Arabia and Israel. Trump’s only choice to stop Iran’s proxy wars was to re-impose draconic economic sanctions, including a boycott of Iranian.oil. Malley has “increasing doubts” that a deal is feasible. While stranger things have happened, it’s possible that the Ayatollah and Raisi could surprise a lot of people and re-up the JCPOA. “The real risk here that they come back with unrealistic demands about what they can achieve in these talkes,” Malley said. Raisi said yesterday that he was committed to ending crippling U.S. sanctions, something promising.
Malley’s concern stems from past statements by the Ayatollah, insisting the U.S. end all economic sanctions before Iran agrees to scale back its uranium enrichment program. For some unknown period of time, Iran has been spinning uranium 242 to 60%, in violation of the JCPOA. Khaemenei made clear that once Trump canceled the agreement, all bets are off when it comes to uranium enrichment limits. Whether Malley admits it or not, the deal is probably dead because of Iran’s malign activities in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Attacking and Israeli tanker Aug. 1 and hijacking a Panama-flagged, Oman-owned Asphalt Princess yesterday, Iran is running amok in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. No naval forces, including the U.S. and U.K., have taken Iran to task militarily on the open seas. Unless Iran stops its malign activities, Malley know any Nuke Deal is dead.
Malley can’t figure out what’s going on with the third-party talks to re-up the JCPOA. Secretary of State Tony Blinken, 58, understands the threat posed currently by Iran to international shipping, especially to the price of oil. Malley knows that Iran is enriching uranium to 60% but doesn’t really know if they’ve gone to 90% weapons grade fissile material. Iran stopped allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] from inspections May 24, creating more verifications problems. But the original JCPOA didn’t permit IAEA inspectors from going into Iran’s military uranium enrichment sites, making verification next to impossible. U.S. and European Union officials have been concerned about Iran’s break-out time to a nuclear bomb, since the IAEA has no real way to knowing what type of fissile material Iran stockpiles. Malley wants a new JCPOA to keep track of Iran’s enrichment activities.
Using advanced 1R-4 and IR-6 nuclear centrifuges, Iran’s enrichment program appears heading to weapons grade material. Biden has promised that Iran will not develop a nuclear weapons on his watch yet the longer Iran’s nuclear enrichment activity goes, the closer Iran gets to producing its first A-bomb. No one knows how much, if any, weapons grade fissile material Iran already has because IAEA inspectors only had limited access to select enrichment sites. It’s beyond Malley’s pay grade to decide what Biden will do to stop Iran from enriching weapons grade fissile material. “At that point, we will have to reassess that way forward, we hope it doesn’t come to that,” Malley said. Biden has a big problem now that Raisi becomes President of Iran Aug. 5. Ayatollah Khamenei has shown no sign of more compromise, leading Malley to believe that the JCPOA talks are in doubt.
Biden’s multilateral approach with Iran has its limitations since Iran shows no signs of compromising about its uranium enrichment program. With more aggressive actions in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, Biden has some big decisions coordinating with the U.K and Israel. Israel’s 49-year-old Prime Minister Naftali Bennett already said that Israel reserves the right to respond to Iran’s predator drone strike on its tanker in the Gulf. It’s clear that Iran is still in retaliation mode after Trump ordered the predator drone assassination of Al-Quds 62-year-old leader Qassem Soleimani Jan. 2, 2020. Whatever happened in the past, Iran enters a new era with ultra-conservative President Ibrahim Raisi taking the reins. Aligned with Khaemenei, the U.S. and EU can expect a more hard-line approach, including, as Malley fears, demanding that the U.S. end all sanctions before negotiations go ahead.
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