Wrangling in Vienna on the contours of a new Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA], Iran’s 81-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei shows no interest in completing a deal before picking a new President to replace 72-year-old moderate President Hassan Rouhani. Since serving as president Aug. 3, 2013, Rouhani has had virtually no impact on Iran’s domestic or foreign policy, where matters of state exclusively go to Khaemnei. Waiting in the wings for the next presidential election, Iran’s 60-year-old Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi is the clear frontrunner to replace Rouhani, running only against 63-year-old former Speaker of Iran’s Consultative Assembly Ali Larijani, not expected to become replace Rouhani June 18. Khamenei will then give either Raisi or Larijani the reigns to cut a deal with the P5+1, replacing the old JCPOA with a new nuke agreement.
Former President Donald Trump, 74, cancelled the July 15, 2015 JCPOA on May 8, 2018, citing flaws in the original agreement, especially about verification for compliance. Since Trump cancelled the agreement, Iran has reportedly been out of compliance with the 3.5% enrichment limits specified in the original JCPOA, Khamenei has reportedly approved enrichment limits to 60%, prompting Western authorities to work feverishly toward a new agreement. Biden expressed interest in a new agreement but only if Iran return to the 3.5% enrichment limit, something not likely anytime soon. Khamenei wants a kindred spirit to replace Rouhanis, most likely Raisi, whose conservative views align closely with Khaemnei. Of the two candidates slated for president, only Ebrahim Raisi has the close personal relationship with Khaemei needed to carry on the tradition.
Lariijani doesn’t have the charisma to lead the country through what promises some tough times. “Hardliners have a majority in Iran’s parliament . . . the judiciary chief is appointed by Khamenei and if, as expected, a harliner wins the election, then we can say hardline allies of the supreme leader are in full control of the country. Khaemenei would like to see U.S. sanctions lifted but not at the expense of conservative principles, something important to Khamenei. “If the sanctions are lifted after the election, then hardliners close to the leader will be seen as heroes in the country,” said a former unnamed senior government official. “The urgency is there. We need an agreement before the election . . . We have to take this opportunity now and no wait several months. I’m not sure the Americans will offer this branch twice,” said the European officials, hoping to get a deal in Vienna soon.
Watching the latest Hamas-Israeli war should remind everyone of the role Iran plays in sponsoring proxy war by supplying rockets, missiles and cash to Gaza to battle Israel. Trump cancelled the Nuke Deal May 8, 2018 because Iran was supplying arms-and-cash to Yemen’s Houthi rebels to battle Saudi Arabia. Iran has had a destructive effect on the Saudi-Yemen war where Tehran backs its Shiite brothers against Sunni Saudi Arabia. Trump wanted Iran to cease-and-desist in prosecuting its proxy war against Saudi Arabia and Israel, both looking for some long-term security. Trump’s snap-back sanctions on Iran have plummeted the value of the Iran’s currency, creating the worst economy crisis since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Khemenei wants an end to U.S. sanctions but he’s willing to wait until Raisi gets installed in Iran’s next president. Khamenei has had to suppress street demonstrations in recent years all stemming from Iran’s failed economy.
Iran claims that its uranium enrichment program is purely for peaceful purposes, not trying to pursue a nuclear bomb. Western officials see it differently, giving Iran a short breakout time to a bomb. “The urgency is there. We need an agreement before the election . . .We have to take this opportunity now and not wait several months. I’m not sure the Americans will offer this branch twice,” said the unnamed European officials. Biden’s demand that Khaemnei first return to compliance with the JCPOA hasn’t played well with the Iranian government. Everything depends on how Iran bounces back economically, especially if they can secure a promise from the Biden administration to end punitive U.S. economic sanctions. Iran’s 83 million population has plunged deeply behind the poverty line. Ending U.S. sanctions would have a positive effect on the Iranian economy.
Iran isn’t about to strike a deal with the U.S. unless its ends all sanctions before the Iranian government puts the brakes on uranium enrichment. Over half of Iran’s 83 million population lives under the poverty line because of U.S. sanctions. With only 30% of Iran’s population expected to vote, it favors the election of Raisi to replace Rouhani on June 18. “After the election, improving the economy will be essential to improve our people’s living standards,” said the unnamed Iranian officials. “Any unrest over the economic hardship can seriously hurt the Islamic Republic,” worried that more prolonged economic hardship could threaten the rule of Iran’s mullahs. Getting a nuke deal sooner-or-later would be a positive step toward reassuring the public. All indications point to Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi emerging as Iran’s next president. Iran’s U.S.-educated Foreign Minister Mohamad Javad Zarif has been virtually silenced.
