President Joe Biden, 78, called 68-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin today saying, in effect, “what gives in Ukraine.” With Ukraine’s 43-year-old President Voldoymyr Zelensky pushing for NATO membership, Putin has amassed 40,000 troops and heavy equipment on the Ukrainian border in what’s described by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and purely for defensive purposes. With 58-year-old Secretary of State Tony Blinken meeting in Brussels with NATO Secretary-Genaral Jens Stoltenberg, it’s clear that Biden has been pushing the Ukraine situation into a crisis. Forget about Zelensky who’s showed he can’t get along with his Russia neighbor, Putin wants NATO away from Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula where he parks Russia’s warm water fleet in Sevastopol. Putin could not be any clearer about his intent to keep Ukraine and Crimea free from NATO.
But no, Zelensky continues to push for more NATO, U.S. and EU involvement in Ukraine, when the more involvement creates regional and global tension. Putin doesn’t want a war in Ukraine, he wants NATO, U.S. and EU to stay out of the region. Stoltenberg told Blinken that NATO membership is determined by a vote from the 30 sovereign countries that comprise NATO. Zelensky hasn’t figured out why NATO has not adopted Ukraine in the seven years since Putin invaded Crimea March 1, 2014. No one at the White House, EU or NATO pays attention to what happened in 2014 that prompted Putin to seize Crimea. Putin had a close relationship with Ukraine before a CIA-backed, pro-Western coup toppled the pro-Kremlin government of Viktor Yanukovych Feb. 22, 2014 while Putin watched from the sidelines, hosting the Sochi Winter Olympics.
Whatever build-up has happens on the Donbass border with Russia, it directly relates to Zelensky’s continuous demands to join NATO. Zelensky knows that NATO’s charter prohibits a country from membership when it’s actively involved in conflict with another country. Since the March 1, 2014 invasion, Ukraine considers itself at war with Russia but doesn’t have the firepower to retake Crimea without sustaining mass casualties, possibly a Russian Federation takeover, though that’s doubtful. Putin wants no part of managing a pro-Western population in Kiev, where resistance to Russian rule would be fierce. At the same time, Putin isn’t about to let NATO threaten his strategic interests in the Crimean Peninsula and current dominance in the Black Sea. Putin knows the geography that the Black Sea is continuous with the Bosphorus Strait that leads to Turkey and the Mediterranean.
U.S. warships routinely traverse the Mediterranean into the Black Sea, something Russia has warned the U.S. navy recently to avoid. Despite having a naval base in Crimea, Putin cannot control freedom of navigation any more that China can in South and East China Seas. Whatever happens in Ukraine, it would be a mistake for Putin to think the U.S. is willing to sacrifice freedom of navigation in open seas when he has a problem with Ukraine. When Biden and Putin get together in a summit, Biden must listen to Putin’s concerns about Russian national security, not try not to bully his way to an outcome. When you read the U.S. and European press, you’d think a war in eastern Ukraine is imminent, when, in fact, Putin’s only preparing for a potential NATO occupation of the area. Stoltenberg knows that Ukraine’s state of war with Russia makes it ineligible for NATO membership.
Announcing today that the U.S. would leave Afghanistan after 20 years, spending $1 trillion and loosing over 2,200 troops, the last thing the U.S. wants is a new war in Ukraine. No matter how much Zelensky wants NATO or the U.S. to defend his borders, Ukraine must learn to get along with its neighbors, not try to suck the U.S. into another protracted war. Putin expresses no opposition to Ukraine’s economic partnership with Europe or the United States. What he objects to is NATO’s encroachment anywhere close to the Crimean Peninsula where Russia houses its warm water fleet. Biden’s been playing with fire calling Putin a “soulless killer” March 16 and demanding that Putin release 44-year-old Russian dissident Alexi Navalny from prison. Biden wants Putin to stop meddling in U.S. elections or democracy but he wants to interfere with Russia’s internal affairs.
When Biden and Putin meet for a summit in a neutral country, they need to de-escalate the kind of rhetoric that’s pushed the world to the brink. Biden needs to offer Zelensky some friendly advice that he should get along better with his Russian neighbor. That the U.S. and NATO won’t fight Ukraine’s battles anytime soon. Whatever troops Putin has on his side of the border, it should have no bearing on Donbass as long as NATO or U.S. forces stay out of the area. Biden and Putin should agree that freedom of navigation for the world’s most advanced navies should continue unabated, as long as they respect international rules governing freedom of navigation. Putin has no problem with the Russian navy passing U.S. warships as long as it respects international convention on the high seas. Zelensky needs to figure out how to resolve Ukraine’s issues without pushing for war.
