Telling 68-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin to stand down in Urkaine, 67-year-German Chancellor Angela Merkel insisted that Russia remove its forces from the Ukrainian border. Ukraine’s 43-year-old President Volodymyr Zelensky complained about stepped up pro-Russian separatists military attacks on Ukrainian troop, killing four soldiers March 26. Zelesnsky has asked NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg for the shortest path to NATO membership, despite warnings from Moscow. Putin has made it clear to Zelensky that any attempt to join NATO or engage in joint military activities would be met with a strong Russian response, including annexing Ukraine’s Russia-speaking territories in the Donbass region. Zelensky exacted a commitment from President Joe Biden April 2 to stand “shoulder-to-shoulder” with Ukraine against Russian aggression.
Merkel called Putin’s military build up in eastern Ukraine “provocative actions,” that could lead to more conflict in the region. But if you think about what Merkel’s saying, she’s blaming Russia for the conflict in Donbass, not the colossal failure with Zelensky’s Kiev government. Eastern Ukraine, comprising Donbass and the city of Donetsk, feels alienated from pro-Western Kiev, the main focus of Ukraine’s resources. “The Chancellor demanded that this build-up be unwound in order to de-escalate the situation,” said Merkel’s office after her phone call with Putin. But Merkel seems to take Zelensky’s side, not reporting the abysmal poverty and lack of resources provided by Kiev to the Donbass region. If there’s discontent in Donbass, it has nothing to do with Putin, everything to do with the abandonment the people of Donbass feel with the Kiev government.
When Putin invaded the Crimean Peninsula March 1, 2014, causing the current stalemate with Ukraine, the U.S. and European Union, it was in response to the Feb. 22, 2014 CIA-backed coup the toppled the pro-Kremlin government of Viktor Yanukovych. Putin has said that Russian troops pose no threat to Donbass but rather support Russian-speaking enclaves that feel abandoned by Kiev. When Ukraine got its sovereignty form the former Soviet Union Aug. 24, 1991, many Ukrainians living in Donbass lost their pensions and government aid. Those same groups want to restore their affiliation with Russia, since, after 30 years of Ukrainian rule, they’ve been left out in the cold. “This has nothing to do with any detainees or anyone,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. “Such a restless region as Ukraine near our border with the potential for renewed hostilities.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said April 2 that bringing NATO into Donbass would potentially “destroy Ukraine,” saying that Russian would not tolerate such a move without considering it a threat to Russia’s status quo. Merkel, who’s a lame duck set to finish her term in September, is in no position to make demands on Putin when it comes to the presence of Russian troops near the Ukraine border. “Vladimir Putin noted provocative actions by Kiev which is deliberately inflaming the situation along the line of contact.” Putin sees the situation at the “line of contact” as a provocative threat to the Russian Federation. When Zelensky talks to partnering with NATO in war games or, worse yet, asking Stolenberg for a path to NATO membership, Putin see only red. Whether admitting it or not to Zelensky, NATO has no interest in fighting Ukraine’s battles.
Zelesnky waves a red flag before Putin flying to Donbass and asking Stoltenberg for a path to NATO membership. When it comes to U.S.-EU-Russian relations, things have deteriorated to the lowest point of the Cold War. Merkel wants Putin to stand down in Ukraine but she voted to slap the Kremlin with new economic sanctions over Putin’s treatment of 44-year-old Russian dissident Alexi Navalny. Navalny’s currently serving out a two-year-eight-month prison sentence in a Russian penal colony. Biden and his Secretary of State Tony Blinken have demanded that Putin release Navalny from prison. Navalny runs a clandestine organization that seeks to topple Putin’s government. Putin sees the West’s support of Navalny as proof that the U.S. and EU want him out as president of Russia. Putin takes the Donbass situation as seriously as the Feb. 22, 2014 pro-Western coup.
Senior Kremlin official Dmitry Kozak said the Ukraine government were like “children playing with matches,” meaning that Zelensky continues to push the region to the brink. Putin rejects Merkel’s assessment that Russian troops are too close to Ukraine’s border. “I support the assessment that the star of military action—this would be the beginning of the end of Ukraine,” said Kozak, warning Zelensky to stand down. Merkel will be long gone if Zelensky tricks NATO into joint exercises in Donbass or, worse yet, if Stoltenberg approves a plan for NATO membership. Putin sees Ukraine’s NATO membership as a red line, threatening its position in Crimea and elsewhere. When Kozak says Ukraine’s like playing with matches, sending NATO into Ukraine could escalate into a wider conflict. U.S. and EU need to figure out how far they’re willing to go in Ukraine.
