Iran rejected calls the by U.S. for a “step-by-step” end to U.S. sanctions to resume full compliance with the July 15, 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA]. Former President Barack Obama spent two years negotiating the Iranian Nuke Deal, eventually giving Iran $1.6 billion in cash and $150 billion in sanctions relief in exchange for Iran agreeing to limit its uranium enrichment program. Western officials at the time were concerned about Iran’s break-out time for building an A-Bomb, something Iran has denied from Day-One. Yet all Western powers concluded that they needed a deal with Iran to increase the break-out time to a bomb. Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadine declared Feb. 11, 2010 a “nuclear state,” touting Iran’s advance centrifuge technology, capable spinning Uranium-242 in uranium hexaflouride gas to make weapons grade uranium.
Former President Barack Obama was well into his presidency when his National Security Advisor lDenis McDononough concluded with CIA estimates that Iran was dangerously close to a bomb. When Susan Rice took over as NSA July 1, 2013, she worked feverishly with former Secretary of State John Kerry to pull off the Iranian Nuke Deal. Once President Donald Trump took over in 2017, it didn’t take long for his national security team to cancel the JCPOA May 8, 2018. Trump objected to the agreement because Iran took the cash and sanctions relief to start proxy wars against Saudi Arabia and Israel. Trump’s main gripe with the JCPOA was the fact that there was no verification provision for Iran’s uranium enrichment program, preventing Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] inspectors from entering Iran’s military uranium enrichment sites.
Since Trump left the agreement, Iran’s 81-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khaenei ended Iran’s compliance with the JCPOA when it came to uranium enrichment. Since 2018, Western intelligence believes Iran now has enough fissile material to make about 20 nuclear devices. Nuclear experts estimate Iran’s break-out time to a bomb as less than six months, prompting President Joe Biden’s push to rejoin the JCPOA. Meeting in Vienna next week to talk about restarting the JCPOA, Iran’s Foreign Ministry signaled there would be no new negotiations until the U.S. ended its unilateral sanctions. “No step-by-step plan is being considered,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Kahatibzadeh said. “The definitive policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is the lifting of all U.S. sanctions.” U.S. officials led by Secretary of State Tony Blinken wants Iran to come back into compliance before sanctions relief.
U.S. officials find themselves in a compromised position with regard to reinstating the JCPOA because two of the P5+1, China and Russia, support Iran’s position of total sanctions relief. Russian and China have found themselves receiving their own U.S. sanctions for a variety of reasons, leaving them both clearly on Iran’s side in any negotiations. Biden and Blinken forgot about the importance of linkage when dealing with geopolitical foes like Russia and China. Since accusing them of human rights abuses, neither Russian nor China wants to cooperate with the U.S. France, U.K. and Germany, all support the U.S. position but that will go nowhere if Russian and China don’t sign onto the plan reinstating the JCPOA. French Foreign Minister Je-Yves Le Drian told Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohamad Javad Zarif that he wants Iran to stop violating the JCPOA before U.S. sanctions are lifted.
Once Trump backed out of the JCPOA, the U.K., France, Germany, Russia and China did everything to placate Iran but to no avail. Khaemnei, ever the game player, signaled Iran would push the pedal to the metal when it came to uranium enrichment. France has done everything possible to get Iran back to the table, encouraging both the U.S. and Iran to compromise in Vienna. “I encouraged Iran to be constructive in the discussions that re set to take place,” said Le Drian. However the P5+1 cajoles Iran to return to the JCPOA, they won’t budge until the U.S. ends its sanctions. U.S. officials know that Iran never complied with the Nuke Deal by not granting access to underground military enrichment sites to IAEA inspectors. Without verifying Iran’s compliance with the JCPOA, there’s no way to determine whether the agreement slows Iran’s break-out time to a nuclear bomb.
Biden finds himself in a difficult place putting leverage on Iran because he’s alienated Russia and China, both take Iran’s position about an unconditional end to Trump’s new U.S. economic sanctions. “They are meant to help identify in the coming week the steps that well be needed to return to full compliance with the nuclear deal,” said Le Dria, hoping that next week’s talks in Vienna pave the way for progress. But without Iran agreeing to intrusive, unrestricted IAEA inspections at its secretive military uranium enrichment sites, the JCPOA remains worthless. Iran’s break-out time to a bomb isn’t even relevant anymore because they’ve amassed so much weapons grade fissile material it’s just a matter of time before Iran announce it’s gone nuclear. Whatever happens in Vienna, it’s a good lesson for Biden that alienating old adversaries doesn’t help diplomacy needed for U.S. national security.
