Resisting an angry media call to sanction Saudi Arabia’s 35-year-old leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, 78-year-old President Joe Biden has another big decision what to do with Iran. Biden’s figuring out the 2020 campaign is over, no need to do everything to spike 74-year-old former President Donald Trump. Biden’s first month in office was spent trying to undo Trump’s four years with executive orders, something that satisfied his base but not what’s best for the country. What’s best for the country is to get foreign policy right, not to do the opposite of Trump and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Biden just did the right thing today telling the press that he will not sanction Bin Salman over loud objections from the press for the Oct. 2, 2018 gruesome murder of former Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi embassy in Istanbul.
Now comes the acid test for Biden on Iran, currently breaching the uranium enrichment limits of the July 15, 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA]. Former President Barack Obama spent two years getting badly out-negotiated by Tehran, handing Iran $1.6 billion in cash and $150 billion in sanctions relief. Iran took the money and went on a state-sponsored terrorism binge, feeding arms-and-cash to Houthi rebels in Yemen to prosecute a proxy war against Saudi Arabia. Iran spent large sums of cash supporting proxy war against Israel, feeding arms-and-cash of Hamas terrorists in Gaza and Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon and Iraq. So when it comes to Iran, Biden’s best move is not repudiating Trump’s foreign policy but using it to his advantage to gain leverage on Tehran to return to compliance. Iran insists there can be no compliance until the U.S. ends all sanctions.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khaemenei thinks that Biden would do anything to spite Trump, including entering into another bad nuclear deal. Trump has afforded Biden new leverage by maintaining sanctions, forcing Iran back into compliance before making any new nuclear deal. “President Joe Biden’s administration should change Trump’s maximum policy towards Tehran . . If they want talks with Iran, first they should lift sanctions,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibxzadeh. Iran thinks they can play Biden’s contempt toward Trump into a bad deal with the U.S. Trump was a tough negotiator with Tehran, despised not because of weakness but because he called Tehran on the table for its malign activities in the Persian Gulf and North Africa. Biden said Sunday that the U.S. would try to “re-engage in meaningful diplomacy” in consultation with P5+1 partners.
Biden knows that the most influential P5+1 partner is Russian President Vladimir Putin. If Joe listened to the media, he’d burn all bridges with Moscow, slapping Putin and key members of the Kremlin with new economic and travel sanctions. Slapping Putin with sanctions over Russian dissident Alexi Navalny makes zero sense. State Department officials, led by 58-year-old Tony Blinken, can’t possibly think that Trump’s logic in trying to get along with Putin was a bad idea. Since coming to power last month, Biden has spent much of his time bashing Putin, meddling in Russia’s internal affairs in terms of handling Navalny. Now that Navalny’s spending the next two-years-eight-month in a penal colony, he’s the last excuse Biden should give not to get along with Putin. Biden played his cards right with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, now it’s time to get it right with Putin.
Asking Iran to return to compliance under terms of the JCPOA sounds like a simple request before the U.S. ends economic sanctions. But Iran was never in compliance with the JCPOA because Tehran would not permit Vienna-based International Atomic Weapons Agency [IAEA] inspectors to enter Iran’s sensitive military uranium enrichment sites. “The new U.S. administration’s refusal to return to the deal is a historic mistake,” Khatibzadeh said, saying Tehran would continue to work with IAEA inspectors, despite saying last week they would not grant access into nuclear enrichment sites. U.S. officials asked the IAEA’s board of governors to sign onto a U.S. resolution condemning Iran for scaling back inspections. Iran’s can’t call all the shots and must allow IAEA inspectors back if it wants to see any U.S. sanctions lifted and further negotiations.
Biden has a golden opportunity to use Trump’s tough approach with Tehran to enable him to get Iran back into full compliance with the JCPOA. Ayatollah Khamenei insists that the U.S. must first end sanctions before Tehran will even enter into informal discussions. Khamenei has said Iran will enrich uranium to whatever level he sees fit, regardless of what the U.S. does with its sanctions. “Europeans, with the backing of the United States, have initiated a wrong path in the IAEA’s board . . . we believe this move will lead to a mess,” said Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. “We have solutions for all the scenarios,” showing that Zarif’s ever the game player. After getting nowhere with Trump, Zarif figures he’s back to his old tricks with the Biden administration. Biden should learn from Obama’s past mistakes, and hold Iran’s feet to the fire until they comply with the JCPOA.
