Nearing completion of its $4.6 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam [GERD] to product hydroelectric power, Ethiopia has not completed an agreement with its upstream partners Sudan and Egypt, whose water supply from the Blue Nile flows from Ethiopia to the White Nile in Sudan, then the Nile in Egypt. With Ethiopia controlling the flow of water from Lake Tana Announcing a peace deal with Israel and end to U.S. sanctions on Sudan Oct. 23, 74-year-old President Donald Trump said that if Ethiopia doesn’t strike a deal with Egypt and Sudan, they’ll probably see the new dam blown up. Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedu Andargachew reacted harshly to Trump’s remarks. Ethiopian officials overreacted to Trump’s remarks, trying to get Ethopia to include Egypt and Sudan in bilateral talks over water rights, especially if Ethiopia faces any future multi-year drought.
Interrupting the flow of fresh water from Lake Tana to the Blue Nile to the White Nile in Sudan, could have disastrous consequences for Sudan and Egypt’s fresh water supply and agricultural industries. “The incitement of war between Ethiopia and Egypt from a sitting U.S. President neither reflects the longstanding partnership and strategic alliance between Ethiopia and the United States nor is acceptable in the international law governing interstate relations,” said Gedu’s statement. “The man doesn’t have a clue on what he is talking about,” said Former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Dessalegn tweeted, calling Trump remarks reckless and irresponsible. Trump wasn’t saying Egypt would “blow up” the dam, he was saying that Ethiopian can’t arbitrarily strip Egypt and Sudan of the their fresh water supply without consequences, urging all parties to negotiate a long-term water use treaty.
Creating biggest hydroelectric dam and electricity plant in Africa is a great source of jobs and pride for Ethiopia. “They [Egypt] will end up blowing up the dam,” Trump said. “And I said it and I say it loud and clear . . . they’ll blow up that dam. And they have to do something,” urging Ethiopia in the strongest possible terms to negotiate a waters rights treaty with Egypt and Sudan. Trump already suspended U.S. foreign aid to Ethiopia over their lack of progress in negotiating a water deal with Egypt and Sudan. “They will never see the money unless they adhere to that agreement,” Trump said “Occasional statements of belligerent threats to have Ethiopia succumb to unfair terms still abound,” said the Prime Minister’s office. Ethiopia needs to stop overreacting and get back to the table with Eygpt and Sudan to figure out a way to guarantee the water rights of its neighboring countries.
Egypt knows what a national source of pride to build a dam and hydroelectric plant when Egyptian President Gamal Addel Nasser built the Aswan Dam July 21, 1070. Egypt didn’t build the Aswan dam to prevent its southern neighbor Sudan from getting fresh water. While the Blue and White Nile flow South to North, eventually emptying from the Nile into the Mediterranean Sea in Alexandria, Egypt never blocked the flow of fresh water to any sovereign state. Egypt and Sudan need Ethiopia to make certain water rights guarantees to prevent rationing of water flowing from Lake Tana through the GERD dam to the Blue Nile, White Nile and Egypt’s Nile River. Given the drought in North Africa, it’s inconceivable that any sovereign state could try to control the water flow to other sovereign states. “These threats and affronts to Ethiopian sovereignty are misguided, unproductive, and clear violations of international law.”
European Union’s representative Josep Borrell tried to get Ethiopia back to the table. “ Now is the time for action and not for increasing tensions,” saying that a deal was within reach. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s office said progress has been made with the help of African Union on a water deal with Egypt and Sudan. Trump’s statement was designed to push the talks toward a deal, not let Ahmed delay a deal any longer than necessary. Ethiopia already filled the dam with 4.9 billion cubic meters of water in August, two years before fully completing the hydroelectric plant. Ethiopia has not said how much water they intend to release into the White Nile for Sudan and Egypt, leaving many unanswered questions especially in any mulit-year drought situation currently hitting North Africa. So far, Ethiopia has rejected any binding arbitration over how much water they’d release to Sudan and Egypt.
Ethiopia’s reluctance to negotiate a water rights deal with Egypt and Sudan shows that they haven’t thought through the GERD dam and hydroelectric plant very carefully. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has played his cards close to the vest when it comes to offering Egypt and Sudan a legitimate water deal. When it comes to North Africa’s drought conditions, no sovereign state can afford to let another country hijack their water supply, no matter what their intentions. Trump tried to push Ahmed into taking the water rights issues seriously or, if nothing gets done, it could lead to an a altercation in the future. Better to get to the table now before things get desperate for Egypt and Sudan when Ethiopia decides to ration water or jump the price of water per acre foot Ethiopia has no agreement how they’ll handle the future distribution of water coming from Lake Tana to White Nile in Sudan and Egypt.
