Offering some hope based on science for the coronavirus AKA SARS CoV-2 or Covid-19 pandemic, 72-year-old Stanford University Biology Professor-Nobel Laureat in chemistry Michael Levitt said his disease models indicate the crisis won’t continue for too long. Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 62, with the best of intentions, warned today about New York sucked into the vortex forecasting million of residents infected. Cuomo, like 52-year-old California Gov. Gavin Newsom, adds to the growing hysteria, when distinguished scientist put the breaks on such wild speculation. Newsom predicted March 19 that California, currently with 2,566 cases, would have 25.5 million cases in two months. No one knows where Newsom got his figures but it’s reckless to whip up mass hysteria when there’s noting behind his forecasts. “What we need is to control panic . . we’re going to be fine,” Levitt said.
Cumo said the rate of increase was doubling every three days, without knowing the scientific reasons behind it. “The rate of infections is doubling every three days,” Cuomo said. “The curve is actually increasing,” raising more alarm for New Yorkers trying to cope with the governor’s “shelter in place order.” Speaking out of hat, Cumo doesn’t know the trajectory of the SARS CoV-2 outbreak in New York, other than parroting back briefings on the subject. Unlike Cuomo and Newsom, Levitt uses his in-depth education to give a more measured assessment of what’s really happening. “In exponential growth models, you assume that new people can be infected every day, because you keep meeting new people . . “ Levitt said, dismissing statements by elected officials observing daily fluctuations in numbers but not able to extrapolate what it all means.
Levitt’s point is that with “shelter in place” orders, social isolation and distancing practices going on, it goes against the exponential model of infectious disease proliferation, because people have already kept away from infected people. “But if you consider your own social circle, you basically meet the same people every day,” Levitt said, also hinting that exponential rises in cases, as forecast by Cuomo and Newsom, aren’t happening that way anymore. When the virus first traveled to Milan, Italy in December 2019 from Wuhan, China, football events were in full swing, spreading the coronaviurs to thousands of people. While still dealing with high numbers on infected people, Italy still has 69,176 total cases, 5,249 new cases and 6,820 deaths. But as Levitt predicts, Italy has started to see a leveling off of new cases, due to quarantine, social isolation and distancing.
Levitt makes the astute observation that most people now have been alerted to the dos and don’t in the current viral outbreak. “You can meet new people on public transportation, for example, but even on the bus, after sometime most passengers will either be infected or immune,” Levitt said, refuting the idea that the course ahead is for the millions-and-millions of new cases forecast by Cuomo and Newsom. Elected officials have a solemn duty to not hype public health crises, instead must let reputable scientists explain what’s happening. But Cumo and Newsom prefer to hide their sources because they lack any kind of scientific credibility. For all we know, they rely on Las Vegas-type odds makers like Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog, that forecasts anything, using “mathematical” models to predict presidential elections or the Final Four NCAA Basketball Tournament.
Levitt attributes the disproportionately high number of SARS CoV-2 caes in Italy to its elderly population, but, more importantly, Italy’s vibrant social culture, where ordinary citizens like to hang out in public squares, bars and restaurants. Like New York, most Italians live in crammed spaces, bunched together in apartments where contagions don’t have to travel too far to spread disease. “Furthermore, Italian culture is very warm and Italians have a very rich social life. For these reasons, it is important to keep people apart and prevent sick people from coming in contact with healthy people,” Levitt said. Levitt thinks it’s utmost important to continue to quarantine, social isolation and distancing, so the least number of people can get infected. Levitt contends in any population some people exposed to SARS CoV-2 are naturally immune, will never get the virus even when exposed.
Levitt wants government officials to continue to quarantine, social isolation and distancing to prevent hospitals from getting overwhelmed. “We know China was under almost complete quarantine, people only left home to do crucial shopping and avoided contact with others,” Levitt said. Levitt noted that even in Wuhan, Hubei Province where everyone had the chance of infection, only 3% of the population got infected. “Even on the Diamond Princess [the quarantined cruise ship] the infection did not top 20%,” Levitt said, reminding elected officials to stop wild speculation about millions of citizens getting infected. Whether anyone can “see the forest for the trees,” Levitt’s a calming voice for elected officials and the public to calm down. Levitt thinks all the profits of d0oom-and-gloom could be disappointed when the current coronavirus outbreak begins to settle down.
