Both front-runners in the Democrat presidential campaign, 77-year-old former President Joe Biden and 71-year-old Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) hear that sucking sound as their campaigns go down the tubes. Biden presented himself as the heir apparent to the Democrat nomination, citing his eight years as former President Barack Obama’s Vice President. He asked voters on the campaign trail to allow him to continue the Obama legacy, even though he’s received no endorsement from Obama. Joe thought that name recognition would be enough to get him over the top, having difficulty handling the rigors of day-to-day campaigning. Unlike his rival, 78-year-old Bernie Sanders, Biden lacks the energy necessary to energize the Democrat base, looking for the best candidate to go up against 73-year-old President Donald Trump. Biden’s looked lethargic at campaign events.
Warren doesn’t lack the energy but she’s watched her fortunes change now running in 4th place with 12.4% in aggregate national polling. Like Biden, she’s been outflanked on the left wing of her party by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) whose supporters have shown far more enthusiasm at campaign events. Warren finds her message getting old but, more importantly, her delivery of the message, seems shrill, screeching at her audience to back her campaign. Unlike Bernie, Warren always seems pressing, pushing too hard, turning off voters from her message. Bernie, on the other hand, delivers his populist message with force-of-conviction, whether or not his proposals are realistic or could ever get approved by Congress. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) questioned today whether or not Bernie’s proposals, especially Medicare-for-al,l could get approved in a divided Congress.
Voters don’t care whether or not any of Bernie’s proposals, including Medicare-for-all, climate change, retiring student debt or paying for free college tuition get passed. What voters care about is that they know Bernie is sincere when it comes to trying to get change. While the same thing can be said for Warren, especially her tax proposals on the rich or plans to restructure Wall Street, voters don’t like the way in which she delivers her message. Warren sounds angry much of the time, leaving voters questioning her intentions. Some pundits think that Warren can take Bernie’s lane, leaving her left out of the race. But voters have had a good chance to evaluate Warren and find themselves turned off to her campaign. You can’t build a campaign only on ripping Trump or calling for Atty. Gen. Bill Barr to resign. Warren’s lost credibility because she spends too much time ripping Trump.
As Nevada approaches its caucus Feb. 22, Bernie has over taken Biden, once commanding an insurmountable lead until he tanked in Iowa and New Hampshire. No matter how much Iowa and New Hampshire are outliers, Nevada and South Carolina voters watch carefully to see who has momentum going into their contests. If Bernie takes Nevada, it’s going to have an effect on South Carolina voters where Biden currently clings to a small lead in the polls. Losing in Nevada could pull the plug on Biden’s Super Tuesday strategy, hoping to salvage bad results in Iowa and New Hampshire. Biden, like Warren, has spent too much time slamming Trump, not enough time talking about what he’d do differently on the economy or foreign policy. While Warren has plenty of energy, Biden looks like he’s going through the motions, not enjoying himself campaigning.
Unlike Biden, Warren isn’t positioned well for Super Tuesday where 14 sates, plus overseas ballots, cast their votes. Biden still has an edge over Sanders in Super Tuesday but that doesn’t take into account the effect of Nevada and South Carolina on upcoming contests. Losing in Nevada could stop what’s left of Biden’s momentum built largely off name-recognition, certainly not campaign performances. Judging by how things went in Iowa and North Carolina, no one expected Biden to take a 4th and 5th place finish in both states. If Biden loses in Nevada, it could spell doom in South Carolina where the 77-year-old Senator hopes to get saved by Black voters. But Black voters have their own preferences for Democrat candidates, giving Biden no lock on their votes. When you consider how things have gone, there’s no guarantee it gets much better for Biden in Nevada and South Carolina.
Warren finds herself pushed out of her left-most lane by Bernie, capturing the youth vote heading into Super Tuesday. Trying to keep a stiff-upper-lip won’t be easy for Biden or Warren as more primary losses pile up. Whether liked or not by the Democrat Party establishment, Sanders has seized the momentum, with only one candidate, 77-year-old former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, sucking oxygen out the race. Outspending his opponents 10-fold, Bloomberg’s Super Tuesday strategy could derail Biden and Warren, where Democrat voters see Bloomberg as the clear alternative. Bloomberg’s strategy is unprecedented, spending more on political ads than any other candidate. Candidates like Sen. Amy Klobushar (D-Minn.), who’s polling 4.6% nationally, have almost zero chance of making up lost ground. Only Bernie looks like he’s got momentum heading into Nevada and South Carolina.
