Huffing-and-puffing since the Jan. 2 drone strike killing 62-year-old Al Quds chief Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, and 62-year-old head of Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah militia Abu Mahid al-Munhandis and others, Iran’s 80-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khaemenei vowed revenge. Iran announced through its semi-official IRNA news agency that it would abandon any remaining involvement in the 2015 Iranian Nuke deal, restricting its enriched uranium production. While denying that it ever worked on a nuclear bomb, Iran has threatened to resume enriching weapons grade uranium since 73-year-old President Donald Trump cancelled the agreement May 8, 2018. Since then, European Union leaders, led by French President Emmanuel Macron, did everything possible to keep the agreement in tact, worrying about what would happen if Iran violated the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA].
Trump’s decision to take out Soleimani represents the war-like state of affairs between Iran and the United States since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. For the past 41 years, Iran has rejected all U.S. efforts to discuss improvements in diplomacy, until former President Barack Obama negotiated with Khamenei, through his Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Iranian Nuke Deal. Trump complained it was a one-sided deal that gave Iran the cash needed to continue its destabilizing actions in the Middle East and North Africa. When Iran bombed oil tankers in the Gulf last summer, then attacked Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery, Iran’s acts of war became more obvious. Since 2015, Iran used Yemen’s Houthi rebels to fight a proxy war against Saudi Arabia. Iran went too far on Trump’s watch June 20, 2019, shooting down a U.S. surveillance drone.
Iran mourns the loss of Soleimani, considered a second son by Khamenei himself, now touting him as a martyr for the Revolution. But in reality, Soleimani’s death comes from repeated provocations against the U.S. and its allies. Since heading the Al Quds force, Soleimani developed local Shiite militias, like Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah, to attack U.S. interests. When Kataib Hezbollah attacked the U.S. embassy in Baghdad Dec. 28, 2019, Trump had seen enough, not letting Baghdad turn into another Benghazi, where militants stormed the U.S. consulate Sept. 11, 2012, killing Amb. Christopher Stevens and three other Americans. Soleimani coordinated with al-Muhandis to attack the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, crossing a red line for Trump. U.S. officials had every legal right to counter-attack the perpetrators of the Baghdad attack in self-defense, including targeting Soleimani and al-Muhandis.
Media reports focus only on Khamenei’s emotional pleas during Soleimani’s funeral, worried about potential Iranian revenge. Trump said Jan. 5 that if Iran retaliates against the U.S. or its allies, he reserved the right to target 52 Iranian sites, corresponding to the 52 U.S. hostages held by Iran in the 1979 U.S. embassy hijacking, including Iranian cultural sites. Trump didn’t elaborate what he meant or which sites he’d target but Iranian authorities and media were quick to point out cultural sites would be a war crime. Trump warned Iran that with all the talk of revenge, Iran should be prepared for a devastating U.S. strike. After Soleimani and al-Muhandis’ targeted killings, Iraq’s parliament voted to end all foreign intervention in Iraq, including U.S. forces. Trump warned Iraq that if the U.S. were forced out, he would expect Iraq to reimburse the U.S. for its military costs.
Iraq forgets what happened the last time they expelled U.S. forces in 2011, per arrangements made by Obama. Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS] emerged over a three years, eventually seizing one third of Iraq’s sovereign territory. It took a costly U.S. effort to retake Mosul and Kirkuk from ISIS terrorists, something Iraq could not do on its own. Whether admitted to or not by Baghdad, they’re still in at war with Sunni terrorists trying to topple the Shiite-dominated Baghdad government. Iraq hasn’t been Sunni controlled since Iraq’s late dictator Saddam Hussein was ousted from Baghdad April 10, 2003. Iraq’s Shiite regime, led by Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, knows he can’t survive Sunni terrorism without U.S. help. It’s doubtful, with or without parliamentary decrees, U.S. forces would leave Iraq, despite all the politically correct condemnations since Soleimani’s death.
Khamenei knows the risk of retaliating against the U.S., something he watched after al-Muhandis attacked the U.S. embassy in Baghdad Jan. 2. While domestic politics consumes the U.S. in an election year, Trump’s actions in Baghdad getting Soleimani and al-Muhandis shows that Trump has reprised Reagan’s old terrorism policy of “swift-and-effective retribution.” Warning Iran that any revenge on U.S. or its allies would be met “VERY FAST AND VERY HARD,” Trump put Khamenei on notice that his 41-year-old mullah regime would be threatened by Iranian retaliation. Soleimani’s replacement to lead Al Quds Force Esmail Ghaani said he would avenge Soleimani’s death. Attacking the U.S. embassy proved a fatal miscalculation for Soleimani and al-Muhandis. Khamenei knows, whatever the bluster, he’s on thin ice with Trump if he hits the U.S. or its allies.
