Taking out Iran’s Al-Quds’ 62-year-old Leader Qassem Soleimani with a predator drone strike Jan. 2, White House officials braced for Iran’s retaliation, knowing it could come at anytime. Soleimani played an influential role during the 1979 Islamic Revolution when militants stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran, holding 52 hostages for 444 days until President Ronald Reagan was sworn in Jan. 20. 1981. Since then, he steadily grew as Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei and now Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s key general who’s waged guerrilla war against the United States and its allies. Over the years, Soleimani routinely threatened Israel with annihilation, often talking tough to the media when Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani deferred to his threats. Soleimani was the chief architect of Iran’s global-state terror policy, starting proxy wars through surrogate militias around the Middle East.
Khamenei groomed Soleimani for his successor, when the 80-year-old cleric finally calls it quits. Supplying rockets, missiles, drones and cash to Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia and Gaza’s Hamas terrorists, Soleimani won plaudits from Sunni Arabs for putting heat on Israel. Soleimani was almost solely responsible for Iran’s military backing of Yemen’s Houthi rebels to fight proxy war against Saudi Arabia. When 73-year-old President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of former President Barack Obama’s Iranian Nuke Deal May 8, 2018, he hoped to get Iran to cease-and-desist its guerrilla war against Saudi Arabia. Trump blamed Obama’s “Nuke Deal” with Iran for giving Iran the cash needed to wage guerrilla war against Saudi Arabia and Israel. Trump’s decision to take out Soleimani was no different than getting Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS] leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
Getting Soleimani and Popular Mobilization Forces [PMF] chief Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, head of Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah militia, Trump signals that he’s fed up with Iran’s malign activities in the Mideast and North Africa. Trump has asked Khamenei to come back to the bargaining table, only to have his overtures rebuffed. When Iran shot down a U.S. predator drone June 20, 2019, Trump said he’d reserve the right to respond at a time of his choosing. Getting Soleimani and Muhandis in one hit Trump sent a loud message to Khamenei that Iran’s malign activities, largely orchestrated by Soleimani, must stop. No one knows yet how Khaemenei will respond to Soleiman and Miuhandis’s targeted assassinations. Most analysts fear that any reprisal by Iran could start a larger Mideast conflict, something that hasn’t happened yet. Khamenei faces some tough choices in 2020.
Unlike his predecessors, former Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, Trump took bold action to protect U.S. interests. “The direct assassination of Soleimani by the United States is a naked challenge and Iran has to carry out a major face-saving act to respond,” said Mohanad Hage Ali, fellow at Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “This is not the end of its,” Ali said, not knowing when, where and how Iran would respond. With popular uprisings plaguing 41-years of mullah rule in Iran, Khamenei treads on thin ice responding to the U.S. While Ali worries about “face-saving,” Khamenei’s mullah regime could face a devastating attack by the U.S., threatening the regime’s survival. Trump doesn’t fear a response from Iran because he knows the U.S. has superior military and economic strength, something that isn’t on Khameni’s side.
Soleimani was responsible as Al Quds leader to set up Hezbollah-like Shiite militias over the Middle East and North Africa to advance Iran’s agenda. Arming Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen was a perfect example of how Soleimani operates through surrogates. When Saudi Arabia’s key refinery was hit with Cruise missiles and predator drones Sept. 14, 2019, Yemen’s Houthi rebels took responsibility, shielding Iran from blame. U.S. satellite reports show that the missiles that struck the Saudi oil refinery came from Iran, not Yemen. Yet Soleimani denied any Iranian involvement. It’s difficult to underestimate Khamenei’s reliance on Soleimani to carry out proxy operations around the Middle East and North Africa. Losing Soleimani pulls the rug out from underneath Iran’s covert military activities around the Middle East. Soleimani worked closely over the last eight years to save Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Soleimani got too big for his britches Dec. 28, 2019, ordering al-Muhandis’ Kataib Hezbollah to attack the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. When Trump saw Soleimani’s boys battering the door of the U.S. in Baghdad it sparked images of Tehran in 1979 and Sept. 11, 2012 Benghazi consulate attack, killing 52-year-old U.S. Amb. Chris Stevens and three other Americans. Trump vowed he would not let Baghdad turn into another Benghazi. Ordering the predator drone strike Jan. 2 killing Soleimani and al-Muhandis, Trump signaled to Khamenei that Iran has crossed the line going after the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. Soleimani found out the hard way what happens when you threaten U.S. national security under Trump. Unlike Clinton, Obama and Bush, Trump’s returned to a Ronald Reagan-like foreign policy, where threatening-or-attacking U.S. interests carries draconic consequences.
