Desperately trying to salvage the July 15, 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA] AKA the “Iranian Nuke Deal,” 41-year-old French President Emmanuel Macron tried to keep Iran’s compliance with nuclear pact. When former President Barack Obama negotiated the deal with Iran and the P5+1 [U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China and Germany], he tried to restrict Iran’s uranium enrichment programs. Western powers concluded that the only way to keep Iran from getting an A-bomb was to make them an offer they couldn’t refuse, handing over $150 billion in sanctions relief plus another $16 billion in cash. Iran’s 80-year-old Supreme Leader Aytatollah Ali Khamenei agreed to the deal, gladly taking the sanctions relief and U.S. cash. When Trump came to office Jan. 20, 2017, he promptly fulfilled a campaign promise canceling the JCPOA May 8, 2018.
President Donald Trump promptly cancelled the deal because of Iran’s proxy war with Saudi Arabia, supplying Yemen’s Houthi rebels with ballistic missiles and drones with which to attack the Kingdom. Since re-imposing billions in new sanctions, Trump launched a “maximum pressure” campaign, stifling the Iranian economy with the strictest ban on Iran oil sales and international banking. Trump’s sanctions have made it difficult for Iran to sell oil into world markets, prompting Iranian officials to say the U.S. has declared economic war on Iran. Suspicious Limpet bombings of oil tankers in the gulf plus the Sept. 19 Cruise missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery have implicated Iran. While Iran denies responsibility, U.S. intelligence sources point to Iranian involvement. Marcon has tried to defuse the prospects of military action between the U.S. and Iran.
Ayatollah Khamenei, who holds the last word on matters of state, has said that Iran would not talk with the U.S. unless Trump returns to the JCPOA. Macron tried to finesse a deal with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to re-start some kind of dialogue with Trump. Warning Iran not to resume uranium enrichment, Macron tried to keep Iran in compliance with the JCPOA, despite promises by Khamenei to breach the JCPOA’s limits on uranium enrichment. Macron’s four-point plan would require Iran to stop Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, help security in the Persian Gulf in exchange for the U.S. removing all sanctions, allowing Iran to sell oil into world markets. While Macron’s plan all sounds good, Trump won’t agree to anything unless Iran suspends its proxy war against Saudi Arabia, using Yemen’s Houthi rebels to attack the Kingdom. Trump also wants Iran to stop supplying arms to Hamas in Gaza.
Macron has his own self-interest for France, wanting to resume buying cheap Iranian crude oil. Whatever Macron’s motives, he seems genuinely interested in calming tensions in the Persian Gulf, realizing that any military confrontation would send already shaky world markets reeling. Speaking to Rouhani on the sidelines of the United Nations last week, Macron has good intention but knows there’s more at stake than ending Iranian sanctions. Macron knows that Iran’s been a bad actor, funding the proxy war that’s destabilized the world’s oil supplies. “The American president on two occasions . . . said explicitly that we want to intensify sanctions. I told these European friends, so which part should we accept? Should we accept you word that you say America is ready,” Rouhani said. Rouhani can’t reconcile Macron’s optimism with Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran.
Iran has showed no interest in dialoguing with Trump unless he agrees to return to the JCPOA. Since Trump considers the deal dead, Iran must start a new negotiation with the U.S., putting the proxy war with Saudi Arabia on the table. “Or the words of the president of America who in 24 hours said explicitly twice . . . that I want to intensify sanctions? [The Europeans] didn’t have a clear answer,” Rouhani said, noting that Macron does not speak for Trump. Rouhani has zero power unless granted to him by the Supreme Leader, who’s said emphatically, no talks with the U.S. unless Trump returns to the JCPOA. Since that won’t happen, Macron should work with Iran to deal with the proxy war in Yemen and arms transfers to Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Trump’s told Macron he willing to sit with Iran without preconditions but only if Iran puts the proxy war on the table.
Threatening to ramp up uranium production, Khamenei’s throwing a monkey wrench into talks with the U.S. and European Union. Macron’s made it clear that the EU must have nuclear compliance with the JCPOA. “We will continue the reduction of commitments and must continue with complete seriousness,” Khaemeni told commanders of Iran’s elite Republican Gurards. As long as Khamenei uses uranium enrichment to exact concessions out of the West, it’s going to be difficult for Trump to negotiate any deal with the U.S. Threatening more uranium enrichment doesn’t sit well with the U.S. or EU because it implies Iran’s ready to enrich military grade uranium. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Macron’s four-point plan does not consider Iran’s point of view but he’s open to dialogue. Without Iran agreeing to stop the proxy war against Saudi Arabia, it’s doubtful Trump agrees to sanctions relief.
