After shooting down a U.S. Global Hawk surveillance drone June 20, Iran warned the U.S. today that things could get much worse if it violates its territory one more time. U.S. officials presented to the U.N. for all to see GPS and radar data proving the drone was 20 miles away from Iran’s airspace. Yet the Iran threatens 73-year-old President Donald Trump about breaching Iranian territorial rights. “The downing of their drone was a good experience for them to avoid any aggression against our borders,” said Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani to semi-official Tasnim News Agency. “Iran’s reaction will be stronger if they repeat their mistake of violation our border,” getting a step closer to Trump pulling the trigger. If the U.S. strikes the Islamic Republic, it won’t be the pinprick strike April 14, 2018 at Syria’s Shayrat Air Base, destroying Syrian air assets for using chemical weapons.
Trump’s showed restraint stopping a Pentagon plan to strike Iran’s surface-to-air missile sites. Calling off the retaliatory strike, Trump said that the unmanned drone caused no U.S. casualties. Trump’s critics complained that Iran would be emboldened to strike again without a U.S. response. Trump cautioned Iran Wednesday that a U.S. strike would “obliterate” Iran’s missile defense sites, weakening 79-uyear-old Ali Khamenei’s grip on power. Khamenei’s mullah government has enriched his tribal friends at the expense of the Iranian people. Khamenei has become rich monopolizing Iran’s oil and telecommunications industries. Trump told his critics if he were forced to strike Iran, it wouldn’t be an Iraq-like operation, largely hitting Iran from the air, avoiding ground troops if at all possible. Slapping Iran with new sanctions June 24, Trump’s gone after Iran’s economy.
Iran’s 59-year-old U.S.-educated Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said last week that Iran considers the U.S. at war with Iran, making no distinction between economic war and dropping bombs. Khamenei made clear today he would not sit down with Trump now or anytime in the future. Once Trump pulled out of former President Barack Obama’s July 15, 2015 Iranian Nuke Deal, Khamenei cut off all contacts with the U.S. Trump ended U.S. involvement in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA] because of Iran’s proxy war with Saudi Arabia, also supplying arms-and-cash to Gaza’s Hamas rulers and Lebanon’s Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia. European Union officials and Russia fears that if war breaks out between Iran and the U.S., it would have devastating consequences in the Middle East, promoting sectarian war between Iran’s Shiites and Gulf State Sunnis.
Neither Trump nor Iranian President Hassan Rouhani say they want war but the heated rhetoric says otherwise. “We also fear that military action against Iran will be disastrous for millions of ordinary people and could lead to the type of violent sectarian civil conflict see in neighboring countries,” said New York-based Center for Human Right in Iran [CHRI]. While that sounds obvious, Iran’s belligerent statements make a bad situation worse. Trump has opened the door to direct talks with the Ayatollah or Rouhani, only to watch his overtures rebuffed. Ayatollah Khamenei insists that all sanctions must end before there’s any dialogue with the U.S. Trump’s not going to end sanctions unless Iran stops its proxy war against Saudi Arabia. Iran’s foreign policy is built around weakening the House of Saud, pitting Shiites against the Gulf state’s Sunni majority.
Adding insult-to-injury in the Persian Gulf, Iran has ramped up its uranium enrichment program, something expressly prohibited under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA]. Rouhani has threatened that if EU nations don’t sign a new deal guaranteeing oil sales by July 7, Iran will breach the JCPOA to go to 20% enrichment, just under weapons grade material. Trump said yesterday that Iran will not get an A-bomb under his watch, putting Ayatollah on notice that he takes Iran’s JCPOA breach very seriously. Calling Trump’s latest sanctions “idiotic,” Rouhani placates the Ayatollah but puts Iran closer to a military confrontation with the U.S. Whatever Iran’s current proxy war with Saudi Arabia, Trump has drawn a red line with Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Exceeding the JCOPA uranium limits would eventually trigger a U.S. military response.
Keeping the region out of war, Iran knows that its uranium enrichment program is a red line for Trump. Warning the U.S. that more breaches of Iran’s territory would be met with a stronger response, Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani throws gasoline on a smoldering fire. If Larijani thinks Iran’s up to taking on the U.S., he hasn’t looked at the ailing Iranian economy, whose Rial currency is one-fourth of its value. Trump means business when he slaps Iran with new sanctions June 24, going after Khamenei’s business holding in the international banking community. With its economy sinking, Iran looks to military conflict with the U.S. to divert attention away from miserable economic conditions. President Trump has played an effective job of cat-and-mouse with Iran, throwing the Ayatollah for a loop. No matter what the threats, Trump made clear he’ll be calling the shots.
