Since backing out the Iranian Nuke Deal May 8, 2018, 73-year-old President Donald Trump continues to apply punitive economic sanctions on Iran, threatening to sanction any country buying Iranian oil. Iran’s currency and economy has gone into free-fall, prompting Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to order the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] to lash out at commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf. Six tanker bombings since May, with Iran’s fingerprints on magnetic Limpet mines, confirm what 59-year-old, U.S.-educated Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif called Trump’s sanctions “economic war,” prompting attacks on commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Trump sent the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln carrier strike force to the Persian Gulf May 12, following the first set of four tanker bombings in the Gulf.
Iran wants guarantees from Russia and China that would assure oil sales, circumventing U.S. sanctions. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said he would ramp up uranium hexaflouride production beyond limits set by the July 15, 2015, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA], unless European Union countries guarantee Iran oil sales by July 7. Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani said he would ask Russia and China to offer a new mechanism to guarantee Iran’s oil sales, if the EU can’t reach an agreement. EU officials want to keep the JCPOA in tack but only as long as Iran abides by restrictions on uranium hexaflouride enrichment. Britain, France and Germany [E3], all signers on the JCPOA, are trying to push a new plan that would allow Iran to sell oil into world markets, despite threatened sanctions by the Trump administration.
Iranians don’t have time on the their side with U.S. sanctions hitting the Persian currency and stock market. Hitting Saudi oil pumping stations near Riyadh May 14, only two days after four tanker bombings, Iran has denied the charges but continues to say its responding to the U.S. “economic war.” Zarif made clear Iran makes no distinction between “economic war” and firing shots. EU officials have their red line when it comes to Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. “If they do, it’s essentially game over for the EU,” said an unnamed EU official. Breaching uranium enrichment limits would not work for EU officials, essentially joining Trump in upholding punitive U.S. sanctions. E3 [Britain, France and Germany] want Iran to stay in the JCPOA but won’t tolerate Iran breaching its uranium enrichment limits. Iran can’t explain why uranium enrichment is so important to the government.
No matter how much proof EU officials want, all finger point to Iran’s IRGC in the recent Gulf tanker bombings. E3 officials plan to meet with the EU in Paris June 27 to discuss options if Iran goes out of compliance with uranium enrichment. Trump cancelled the U.S. involvement in the JCPOA because of Iran’s proxy war with Saudi Arabia, arming Yemen’s Houthi rebels with long-range missiles and predator drones to attack the Kingdom. EU officials have done little to address Iran’s malign activities in the Mideast and North Africa. Trump officials certainly want Iran to stop supplying rockets to Hamas terrorists in Gaza or Hezbollah in Lebanon. Since Trump cancelled the JCPOA and re-imposed economic sanctions, Iran felt entitled to attack tankers in the Persian Gulf. Only yesterday, the chief of Iran’s IRGC, Hossein Salami warned the U.S. about Iran’s precision guided missiles.
After threatening to exceed the JCPOA limits on uranium hexaflouride, EU officials still believe Iran would like to salvage the deal. “Our assessment is that Iran still doesn’t want to leave the accord,” said an unnamed Western intelligence official. Whether Iran spins uranium, why should Western officials be concerned if Iran isn’t planning on building a bomb? No one really believes that Iran spins uranium hexaflouride for medical, non-military purposes. Even if Iran goes out of compliance, EU officials want the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency, the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA], to inspect Iran’s uranium stockpile. EU officials have overreacted to Trump’s recent deployments, believing there’s a risk of escalation. Trump wants Iran to stop its proxy war with Saudi Arabia and to stop supplying rockets to Hamas and Hezbollah to threaten Israel.
Instead to trying to save the JCPOA, the EU should work with Iran on ending its proxy war with Saudi Arabia and supplying arms-and-cash to Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists. Contrary to news reports, Trump isn’t trying to start a war with Iran but would respond to any Iranian attack or attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz. What we need in the current Iran/US tension is some diplomatic engineering,” former French nuclear negotiator Gerard Araud. “Sanctioning and waiting for the other side to surrender is a recipe for failure or disaster.” Araud has nothing to say about how to stop Iran’s proxy war against Saudi Arabia, or, more recently, IRGC’s bombing of oil tanker in the Gulf. Whether admitted to or not, the EU has a history of appeasing tyrants. Trump put his foot down re-imposing economic sanctions, not to wage war, but trying to get Iran to stop its malign activities.
