Warning the United States to stay out of Veneauela’s internal affairs, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged all parties to let the United Nations help resolve the oil-rich nation’s political crisis. Lavrov, like his boss Vladimir Putin, has disdain for fair, free and monitored elections, something Russian protesters took to the streets claiming voter fraud when Putin last declared himself the winner May 7, 2012 of Russia’s last presidential election. Like last year’s vote in Caracas, Putin’s election results were questioned by a vanishing opposition in Moscow, whose numbers continue to shrink as anti-Putin activists disappear off the streets. U.S. foreign policy has operated under the July 12, 1948 Trump Doctrine, promising to keep the Soviet Union [Russian Federation] out of the Western Hemisphere. Truman’s Doctrine was tested by President John F. Kennedy in the Oct. 16-28, 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
When Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev decided to place intermediate range nuclear missiles in Cuba, 90 miles from Miami, Kennedy invoked the Truman Doctrine, with a breathtaking nuclear standoff with Moscow in the Gulf of Mexico. For Lavrov to dictate to the U.S. now to stop meddling in Venezuela shows how far things have changed. Faced with a popular uprising led by 35-year-old National Assembly Leader Juan Guaido, Moscow’s now doing the bidding of 55-year-old Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. With widespread shortages of basic necessities and hyperinflation plaguing the country, Guaido acted under the Venezuelan Constitution to call for new presidential elections. Declaring the May 2018 election fraudulent, Guaido appointed himself interim president under the Constitution. Russia opposes U.N. monitored elections to replace Maduro.
More than 50 countries in Europe and Latin America have recognized Guaido as Venezuela’s interim president. Guaido wants monitored presidential elections to let the Venezuelan people pick their president without interference from foreign powers. Looking to avoid a new presidential election, Lavrov hopes to save Maduro’s power. Guaido said Feb. 4 that as interim president he could ask the U.S. to intervene militarily to remove Maduro from power. Maduro responded Feb. 5, saying he’d call for new parliamentary elections to replace Guaido and his backers from what he sees as a U.S.-backed coup d’etat. “We have been maintaining very important contacts with the government of this country and stand ready to provide the kind of service in order to facilitate the process of finding ways out of the situation,” said Tass, Russia’s state news agency quoting Lavrov, hoping to keep Maduro on Caracas.
Russia has a vested interest in Venezuela, spending billions on the country’s oil infrastructure. Keeping Maduro in power guarantees an orderly repayment of Venezuela’s oil debts. Beijing has also heavily invested in Venezuela’s oil industry, also owed billions by the Maduro government. Guaido warned Maduro to stop using the military to block humanitarian aid shipments of food and medicine now stuck across the bridge in Columbia. Maduro won’t accept the emergency aid because he doesn’t want to admit that his country is in economic ruins. Despite Venezuela’s oil wealth, the country has widespread shortages of food and medicine, leaving its population in desperate shape. Lavrov wants the U.S. to stay out of Venezuela despite interim President Guaido asking for U.S. help. Russia seeks only to preserve Maduro’s power, not help Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said all options for Venezuela are on the table, including using the U.S. military to end Maduro’s stranglehold. Maduro has already received some 400 Russian paramilitary forces to ward off a possible U.S. invasion. With substantial military assets in Latin America, the U.S. has plenty of resources to deal with any contingency, including military resistance from Venezuela or any other country. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wants to submit a resolution in the U.N. Security Council to force Maduro to hold supervised presidential elections. Russia plans to introduce its own resolution, calling for U.N. mediation but not new elections. U.S. and European Union officials want nothing less than new elections, despite Russia and China threatening to veto the resolution. Russia’s U.N. Amb. Vassily Nebenzia called the U.S. resolution “completely unbalanced.”
Dealing with authoritarian regimes like Russia, China and Venezuela, democracy represents a clear-and-present danger to the status quo. No dictator, even one like Putin who talks a good game to the press, wants free, fair and monitored elections. Maduro claims sovereignty based on a rigged election according to sources familiar with last year’s election. It’s doubtful anything can be resolved for Venezuela in the U.N. Security Council, where any attempt at new presidential elections would be met with a veto by Russia or China. Lavrov wants the U.S. to stop meddling because he wants the Kremlin to call the shots in Venezuela on behalf of the dictator, Maduro. When push comes to shove, Trump will have to decide how far he’s willing to go to enforce the Truman Doctrine to keep Russia out of the Western Hemisphere. So far, Russia looks firmly entrenched in Caracas.
