Under relentless attacks ordered by President Donald Trump since taking office Jan. 20, 2019, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS] has been reduced to 0.5% of its former territory. When ISIS leader Abu Barkr al-Baghdadi declared a caliphate July 5, 2014, ISIS had seized some 30% of Iraq and Syria, in one of the largest land-grabs since the Nazi era before WW II. When Trump announced a withdrawal of 2,000 U.S. advisers in Syria Jan. 15, the Pentagon and intel community went wild, suggesting that ISIS was still a dangerous threat to the U.S. and region. Trump insisted that ISIS had all but been defeated, dramatically reduced in size, both in terms of numbers and territory controlled. Yet the U.S. intel community and hawks on Capitol Hill insist that it was premature to withdraw non-combatant U.S. advisers, fearing ISIS could reconstitute itself in short order without U.S. forces.
When commanders on the ground say that ISIS has been reduced in territory to about 0.5%, members of Congress and the intel community should take notice. Trump’s Jan. 15 decision to begin a methodical pullback was met with exaggerated fears stemming from former President Barack Obama decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq Dec. 15, 2011. Most experts believe that the U.S. withdrawal prompted the rise of ISIS, leading to al-Baghadi’s seizure of Iraqi and Syrian territory. Today’s situation is different because much of al-Baghdadi’s caliphate has been destroyed and dispersed since Russian President Vladimir Putin used his air assets to degrade ISIS and other Syrian rebel groups seeing to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Major General Christopher Ghika, deputy coalition commander, confirmed the caliphate is reduced “approximately 99.5 percent” of its former size.
When commanders on the ground confirm ISIS is virtually nonexistent with U.S.-backed Kurdish forces going after a few remaining villages, U.S. intel agencies and Congress should not exaggerate the threat. No one wants to underestimate the potential risk posed by ISIS remnants but nor does the Pentagon need to exaggerate any remaining threat. Trump’s statements about the virtual destruction of ISIS have been accurate, not hyperbole coming from Capitol Hill. While no one knows where al-Baghadi’s hiding, Ghika knows that ISIS has been confined to a few villages near Baghourz in Eastern Syria. Ghika said ISIS fighters “are attempting to escape through intermixing with innocent women and children attempting to flee the fighting,” Ghika said, insisting Kurdish forces would not allow the jihadists to escape. ISIS has been on the run for two years since Trump took office.
Once considered a major threat in the region and in Europe, ISIS no longer has the networks or sleeper cells needed to continue plotting terrorist attacks on Western targets. ISIS once had a powerful Internet recruiting network, promising disenfranchised young men sex slaves and money to further Baghdadi’s sick ambitions. When he declared himself the Iman of a new Caliphate in 2014, al-Baghdadi deluded himself into believing his own grandiose claims. Once controlling the oil fields in Kirkuk, Iraq, ISIS made over a million dollars a day in illicit oil sales, largely to Turkey. Robbed of its cash cow since driven from Iraq July 26, 2017, ISIS has been on the run without any way of paying thousands of jihadists, no longer connected with the terror group. Yet if you listen to the latest intel community or Capitol Hill, you’d think ISIS was one step away from reconstituting itself in Iraq and Syria.
While it’s true that ISIS continues to attract jihadists, there’s no place for young recruits to go like when ISIS controlled some 30% of Iraq and Syria. “These tactics won’t succeed, our Syrian partners are focused on finding ISIS wherever they hide, and out Iraq partners have secured their leaders,” said Commander Ghika. Ghika disputes the idea that ISIS has been reconstituting itself, continuing to pose an ongoing threat to U.S. forces or in Europe. U.S. Syrian advisers are not the main fighting force going after remnants of ISIS. U.S. Kurdish-backed forces, including the YPG militia, have successfully routed ISIS in most safe havens in Iraq and Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erodgan has threatened military offensive against U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, equating them with their archenemy Kurdistan Workers Party [PKK], only because their the Kurdish identity.
Trump and his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have reassured Syrian Democratic Forces [SDF] that whatever U.S. withdrawal, the U.S. would not abandon the Kurds, currently fighting to rid the region of ISIS. Under Trump’s orders, SDF have intensified the fight against ISIS, driving them out of any remaining pockets. When ISIS loses its few villages in Syria, they’ll become reduced to a guerrilla fighting forces, a terror group like al-Qaeda without any territory. Gone are the days when ISIS occupied Iraq and Syria, stealing Iraqi oil to finance its criminal operation. Erdogan seems to have backed off any attempt to go after the Kurd’s YPG militia, now fighting with the SDF to destroy remaining pockets of ISIS. Without resources to pay jihadists, ISIS has been hard-pressed to recruit more terrorists, leaving al-Bagdadi’s caliphate in shambles, without any way to regroup.
