When 72-year-old President Donald Trump announced Dec. 19, 2018 that he would withdraw 2,000 U.S. advisers from Syria, the Pentagon gasped, knowing the commitment to the Kurds, the U.S.’s main fighting force against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS]. Trump campaigned to end U.S. involvement in Syria, primarily to reverse the policy of former President Barack Obama who spent millions for six years backing Syrian rebels of topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Unlike Obama, Trump was not beholden to Saudi Arabia, funding the proxy war since March 15, 2011 to topple al-Assad’s Shiite government. Trump realized that Russian President Vladimir Putin was committed to preserving al-Assad’s regime, beating back the Saudi-Turkey-U.S.-backed insurgency. Sending National Security Adviser John Bolton to Ankara, Trump made clear the U.S. was not pulling out of Syria yet.
Trump’s announcement Dec. 18, 2018 to pull out of Syria was more about celebrating the symbolic defeat of ISIS, at least its eviction from Raqqa, Syria and Mosul, Iraq. Trump caused a jockeying for position among Turkey, ISIS, Syria rebels and Kurdish fighters all embroiled in securing territory in Syria near the Turkish border. When Trump announced the pullout, no one was happier than the Turks, seizing the chance for a military operation against Kurdish Protection Units AKA the YPG militia. U.S. State Department special Syria envoy Brett McGurk was so incensed by Trump’s policy, he moved up hi retirement date Dec. 22, 2018 by two months. McGurk worked closely with Syrian rebel groups for six years to bring about regime change in Damascus. Trump recognized that giving arms-and-cash to Syrian rebel groups only led to more death-and-destruction.
Once Trump made his decision public to pull out of Syria, Turkish officials openly shared their intention to go after the Kurd’s YPG militia. When the YPG asked al-Assad Dec. 30, 2018 for help against the Kurds, Trump realized he’d gone too far, too soon, announcing to withdraw U.S. troops. Bolton told Turkish authorities Jan. 4 that the U.S. wouldn’t leave Syria until ISIS was completely defeated. With ISIS massacring 23 YPG fighters in December, Trump reconsidered his decision to remove U.S. forces from Syria. “We are confident we can achieve an outcome that achieves both of those,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in Abu Dhabi today. Pompeo referred to defeating ISIS and, at the same time, protecting the YPG militia. Pompeo antagonized Ankara who sees the Kurd’s YPG as part of the Kurdistan Workers Party {PKK], a mortal enemy of the Turkish state.
Pompeo put Turkey on notice that the U.S. would not abandon the Kurds, giving Syria the green light to for a military operation. “The Turkish people’s right and [Turkish President Recept Tayyip] Erdogan’s right to defend their country from terrorists,” Pompeo said. Turkey plans to order its military against the YPG has been thwarted by continued U.S. presence in Syria. “We also know that those fighting alongside of us all this time deserve to be protected as well,” Pompeo said, telling Ankara that any attempt to go after the YPG would have to go through the U.S. military. With Pompeo and Bolton running Trump’s foreign policy, Trump’s not likely to make more mistakes, like prematurely pulling out of Syria. More than anything, U.S. advisers send a message to Iran that they can’t take advantage of the lawless parts of Syria to establish a strategic military foothold.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a member of the Armed Forces Committee, prevailed on Trump to reconsider the pace of the Syrian pullout. Israeli President Benjamin Netayahu told Trump that he was concerned that a U.S. pullout would embolden Iran in Syria, something that changed Trump’s mind. Turkey wasn’t happy about Bolton’s statement that any U.S. withdrawal was contingent on the full defeat of ISIS, something that could take years, since the terror group has some 20,000 fighters left in Syria’s northern desert. “If the [pullout] is put off with ridiculous excuses like the Turks are massacring Kurds, which do not reflect the reality, we will implement this decision,” said Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, walking back his past remarks. Cavusoglu threatened a military operation specifically designed to go after the Kurd’s YPG militia.
Pompeo has taken charge of U.S. foreign policy, spelling out remaining U.S. objectives in Syria. “Expel every last Iranian boot” from Syria, becomes the new U.S. foreign policy, something that needs backing of Russia. With U.S.-Russian relations at Cold War lows, it’s going to be difficult to get Putin to buy into the U.S. policy to rid Syria of Iran. “The fact that a couple of thousand of uniformed personnel in Syria will be withdrawing is a tactical change,” Pompeo said, stopping to specify any timetable for the foreseeable future. Pompeo wants to morph what’s left of Syrian Democratic Forces [SDF] into a fighting force to prevent Iran from gaining a permanent foothold in Syria. Building a Gulf State coalition against Iran’s military ambitions also appeals to Pompeo, who sees a clear opportunity to challenge Iran. Trump’s new Syria policy has begun to take shape.
