Announcing new government appointments today in the wake of the Jamal Khashoggi affair, Saudi Arabia removed U.S.-educated Adel al-Jubeir as foreign minister, replacing him with 69-year-old Finance Minister Ibrahim al-Assaf. Al-Jubeir hurt his credibility backing 33-year-old Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman after 59-year-old Washington Post freelance journalist Jamal Khashoggi disappeared Oct. 2 from the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. Saudi Arabia’s monarch King Salman was under enormous pressure to replace his favorite son Mohammed bin Salman for his involvement in Khashoggi’s disappearance. When the CIA concluded that Bin Salman ordered Khashoggi’s death, key members of Congress and foreign officials wanted no part of Bin Salman or Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir. Al-Jubeir went over the top defending Bin Salman, turning off U.S. and foreign officials.
Al-Assaf served as Finance Minister, Saudi Arabia’s main contact with the International Monetary Fund [IMF] and World Bank [WB] for the Kingdom. Al-Jubeir lost all his credibility defending the Kingdom during the Khashoggi Affair. King Salman hopes his more senior Finance Minister can restore credibility to the Kingdom, knowing that 33-year-old Crown Prince Bin Salman ordered Khashoggi’s death in response to his disparaging remarks about Bin Salman, the Kingdom. “Al-Assaf will basically follow orders, but is seen as a key to rebuilding the Kingdom’s tarnished image given his own positive international image,” said Neil Quilliam, a senior research fellow at Britain’s Chatham House think tank. “So this rings in the new for the new year, but no real change,” referring to the fact that Bin Salman remains Defense Minister and heir apparent to the Saudi crown.
King Salman had no choice but to shuffle the deck after his 33-year-old heir-apparent Mohammed bin Salman was implicated in Khashoggi’s death. Al-Assaf was once detained in a hotel under house arrest by Bin Salman when he claimed to be cleaning house of Saudi corruption in 2016. Though released and exonerated by Saudi officials, he’s well aware of Bin Salman’s propensity to act impulsively when it comes to consolidating his power in the Kingdom. King Salman replaced Prince Khaled bin Asyaf with Prince Adullah bin Bandar bin Abulaziz as Chief of the National Guard. General Kalid bin Oirar al-Harbi was named Saudi Security Chief. Harvard-educated Musaed al-Aiban was named the first Saudi intelligence chief. All of the changes were designed to give Bin Salman cover as the U.S., European Union and U.N. demand a full accounting of the Khashoggi Affair.
Faced with plunging world oil prices now at $45.72 a barrel, Saudi Arabia looks to reshuffle its Cabinet position at a time when the war in Yemen has been looking for a permanent settlement. U.S. officials backed Saudi’s war against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. When Trump announced Dec. 19 he was pulling 20,000 U.S. advisers out of Syria, he threw Saudi Arabia for a loop. Trump refused to follow former President Barack Obama’s policy to supply arms-and-cash to Syrian rebels seeking to remove Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Trump’s decision to pull out of Syria also signals that he won’t support more cash-and-arms to fight Houthi rebels in Yemen. Trump’s new policy forces the Saudi to rethink its 4-year-old war Yemen War. Unable to stop Houthis from firing Iranian-made guided missiles at Riyadh’s International Airport, Trump finally ends the old Obama policy.
All of King Salman’s Cabinet changes say nothing about curbing the power of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, essentially telling the U.S., European Union and U.N. not to question bin Salman’s credibility. “None of this however calls into question the position of the crown prince. On the contrary, it reinforces it,” said James Dorsey, senior fellow at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Putting sports tsar Turki al-Sheikh to head entertainment, King Salman and Bin Salman means business when it comes to getting out the message. With no change with Bin Salman as Defense Minister, King Salman pretends that the Khashoggi Affair will eventually go away, especially with al-Jubeir out and al-Assaf in has Foreign Minister. Changing Cabinet positions doesn’t automatically assert more control over Bin Salman, other than the fact than King Salman’s attempt to fix PR damage.
Remaining Defense Minister, Bin Salman continues to call the shots in Saudi Arabia. While Western powers wanted Bin Salman’s head for Khashoggi’s death, it looks like the Crown Prince will take a less high profile role in Saudi affairs. Putting 62-year-old Prince Sultan bin Salman, former head of Saudi tourism, to head a new space agency, King Salman wants desperately to divert attention away from the Khashoggi Affair and onto new headline projects. Ramping up the Saudi Space Agency can only improved the Kingdom’s credibility. Bin Salman once flew into space on the Space Shuttle in the 1980s, making him uniquely suited to head the Saudi Space Agency. Rearranging the deck chairs, King Salman hopes to take the heat of his son and heir-apparent Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Changing Cabinet positions helps divert attention from Khashoggi.
