Heading for a showdown in the British Parliament, 62-year-old Prime Minister Theresa May looks at a crushing defeat, with her Brexit deal with the European Union unlikely to pass. May gave it her best shot, but, in the end, the deal fell short of providing the United Kingdom the autonomy it needed to end its membership in the European Union. May bought, hook, line and sinker, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk who said the EU’s last offer was final. Members of the House of Commons weren’t happy with the trade agreement that offered the U.K. little guarantees of free trade, especially border issues with Northern Ireland and the Republic currently under the EU’s Schengen Treaty, allowing passport free travel. With the deadline vote in Parliament happening Tuesday, Dec. 11, May’s left with few choices.
Once the parliament rejects May’s deal with the EU, May faces some ugly choices, including stepping down. Already faced with a string of resignations, May has been kidding herself thinking that if she bites her lower lip all things will turn up roses. Will Quince, Colchester MP and aid to Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson, quit his post tonight. May faces growing leadership splits within the Tory Party, taking the heat for what looks like a bad Brexit deal, favoring the EU. May faces a crushing defeat on Tuesday, demanding a second Brexit vote, where British voters can reconsider the June 23, 2016 referendum that passed 52% to 48% for exiting the EU. “She’s committed to her deal, and a second referendum could now be the only way of getting it,” said an unnamed Cabinet official. With all the bad Brexit publicity, pollsters believe that a second vote would reverse original vote.
Cabinet Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd broke with May today, asking for an alternative plan AKA “the Norway option” and a second referendum. Justice Secretary David Gauke dismisses Rudd’s call as “great risks,” referring to warning by Juncker and Tusk that there’s no better deal coming from the EU. May ally, former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, said there was at least 100 Tory MPs who would reject May’s EU deal. Johnson said if 100 Tory MPs reject May’s EU deal she would be forced to resign as PM. “If it is under 50 she can probably go on and try ask for concessions from Brussels, then put it back to a second vote,” said Johnson. “People are saying it is like the last days of Rome and it cannot go on like this,” saying May’s days are numbered. Labour Party MP Hilary Benn said May’s deal lacked “clarity” and “would be a huge step into the unknown.”
All-party Select Committee on exiting the European Union unanimously rejected May’s EU deal, primarily because it provides no single market and customs union for deal with the Republic to Ireland. Benn said that negotiations are complicated “because the government has yet to set out clear objectives for the future relationship that are realistic, workable and have the support of parliament.” Torry MP Sarah Wollaston said she would introduce an amendment on Tuesday’s main motion for a second Brexit vote. Wollaston asked the Labour Party to back her plan for a second Brexit vote. May doesn’t want a second Brexit vote because she knows British voters have heard and seen enough to know that leaving the EU was a bad idea. What turned out in 2016 as a rejection of the EU’s immigration policies, there’s plenty of backing now to reverse the original Brexit vote with a second referendum.
When voting takes place in the Parliament next Tuesday at 7 PM, Benn’s amendment will call for a new Brexit vote. “If the vote in parliament goes ahead then, once rejected, I will be bringing up a cross-party amendment at the earliest opportunity to press for the People’s Vote. “I urge the Labour front bench to then stick to their promise to support it,” said Benn. May’s running out of options before now and the Tuesday vote almost certain to reject her EU deal. British MPs didn’t like hearing that Juncker and Tush’s deal was all the U.K. could hope to get. MPs want guarantees that Northern Ireland the Republic would continue its Schengen border agreement, assuring open trade between North Ireland and the Republic. MPs backing May haven’t come to grips with what looks like a crushing defeat next Tuesday. Unless May pivots quickly, she’s facing a broad-based mutiny in her Tory Party.
If May wants to survive next Tuesday’s Brexit vote in parliament, she needs to agree to a new referendum or scrap the current EU deal and go back to the drawing board. While Juncker and Tusk have driven a hard bargain, May must face reality quickly or be swept into the dustbin. Frans Timmermans, vice chairman of the European Commission, urged Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn to press for a new referendum. Timmermans made no mention of opening up the Brexit negotiations again. “The Brexit vote was the lowest point in my political life. We respect the vote. But since that vote, much has change in the world. And the EU has changed,” said Corbyn. When Corbyn talks about the EU changing, he’s referring to the liberal immigration policies pressuring EU-member states to take more Mideast and North African immigrants. With less pressure from the EU on refugees, what’s the point of Brexit?
