Demanding that the Russian military release three patrol boats and six sailors, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin asked the Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe [OSCE] for help. Before the April 22, 2014 coup that ousted Kremlin-backed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, Ukrainians—at least those in Kiev—demanded NATO or European Union membership. When that demand fell on Yanukovych’s deaf ears, pro-Western factions led by Kiev Mayor Vitale Klitschko drove Yanukovyh from Kiev, prompting 66-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin to invade Crimea March 1, 2014. Putin saw the coup as a breach of Yanukovych’s duly elected government, but, more importantly, orchestrated by the CIA. No U.S. source has ever confirmed that fact. Putin threw his full backing to Russian-speaking enclaves in Crimea and the Donbass regions of Southeastern Ukraine.
Ukraine’s parliament or Supreme Rada voted overwhelmingly to not continue a friendship agreement with Russia since the Russian navy seized Nov. 25 three Ukrainian boats and six sailors in the narrow Kerch Strait in the Sea of Azov. U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the U.S. guided missile destroyer McCampbell to sail from the Sea of Japan to the Black Sea, something that could be seen a provocative to Putin. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko declared martial law Nov. 26 for 30 days putting Ukraine on a war footing after the Russian seizure. Poroshenko asked NATO to send more combat ships into the Black Sea, where Putin houses Russia’s warm water fleet at Sevastapol. Sending a U.S. destroyer into the Black Sea’s international waters could be seen by Moscow as provocative. Ukraine isn’t part of NATO and isn’t entitled to a mutual defense treaty.
Klimkin wants more NATO support for Ukraine but it can’t happen because no country can join NATO actively involved in military conflict. No NATO country is prepared to confront the Russian Federation on land, sea or air, especially for Ukraine. European Union’s high representative Federica Mogherini called on Moscow to immediately return the three ships and missing sailors. Mogherini knows that Putin won’t be intimidated by the U.S., EU or NATO when it comes to its foreign policy. OSCE mandates don’t include former Soviet republics now having conflicts with the Russian Federation. While the U.S., EU and NATO have sympathy for Poroshenko, no one’s willing to confront Russia for Ukraine. Regardless of Ukraine’s problems with Russia, they have even more problems with Poroshenko who hasn’t delivered on his promises to improve the economy.
Poroshenko’s martial law isn’t going to improve his border problems with the Russian Federation, only pander to war hawks in the U.S. Congress that are fed up with Russian aggression in Eastern Europe and countries around the Black Sea like Georgia. where Putin annexed South Ossetia and Abkhazia Aug. 7, 2008. Former President George W. Bush did nothing then to stop Putin, leaving the door open for his March 1, 2014 invasion of Crimea. Poroshenko asked for U.S., EU and NATO help in an op-ed today in the New York Times. “Our common task is not to allow Russia to spill its aggression in the Sea of Azov,” Poroshenko wrote. “While the West is speaking, Mr. Putin is acting, it’s is time to respond,” calling on Western powers to supply the military support to confront Putin. Putin learned that his battle-tested land army has no equal on the European continent or Black Sea region.
Before Poroshenko starts WW III, the U.S., EU and NATO must put him on notice that they can’t fight his battles with Russia. Poroshenko hasn’t admitted that sizable parts of Ukraine aren’t happy with his leadership, especially managing the economy. Lacking the military capabilities to defend Ukraine against Russia, Poroshenko wants the West to bail him out. Putin knows that no one in the West wants to confront Moscow in Ukraine. Whatever happened in the Kerch Strait Nov. 25, it’s not the U.S., EU or NATO’s battle to deal with lingering issues from Ukraine’s days as a Soviet satellite. Visiting the Zhytomyr Air Assault Base today to order troops to the Sea of Azov, Poroshenko’s bound to antagonize Putin, especially if it signals a military confrontation. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo must put Poroshenko on notice to stand down with Russia in the Sea of Azov.
Ukraine’s recent actions to double its control of international waters in the Sea of Azov opens the door to more Russian confrontation. No one in the Kiev government should be deluded into thinking that the U.S., EU or NATO is prepared to fight Ukraine’s battles with Russia in Crimea or the Black Sea. “In order to strengthen our defense capabilities and be ready to stop the aggression without losing a second,” said Poroshenko, referring to redeploying his Air Force to the Sea of Azov. Expecting the U.S., EU or NATO to commit more military resources to Ukraine only puts member states into jeopardy, at a time of real risks to Poland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, the Baltic States. If war breaks out between Ukraine and Russian Federation, there’s little the U.S., EU and NATO can do to stop it. Trump and Pompeo should educate Poroshenko before its too late.
