Heading into the Nov. 6 Midterm elections, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) promised a Democrat victory, ending Republican rule over the 435-member House. Whether Democrats pull of their victory Tuesday is anyone’s guess, despite most aggregate polls showing they’ll pick up the 24-or-more seats needed to retake the House. At the same time, Democrats look like they’ll loose between three and five seats in the U.S. Senate, making Rep. Maxine Waters plans of impeaching president Donald Trump next-to-impossible. Democrats need a two-thirds majority in the Senate to convict Trump and toss him from office. Whatever happens on Tuesday, expect the government to face more partisan gridlock, especially if Democrats get the 24-or-more votes to retake the House. With Trump campaigning nonstop, the generic ballot favoring Democrats looks shrinking.
Most polls show Democrats picking up enough toss-up seats in the House to take control of the chamber but not by a big margin. While Democrats want the results to prove that their candidates have momentum heading into the 2020 presidential race, the truth is that Democrats look to do rather poorly on Nov. 6, especially when it comes to losing seats in the U.S. Senate. Most Midterm elections over the last 100 years favor the opposing party of the president, in this case Democrats. Yet instead of losing both Houses of Congress like former President Barack Obama in 2010, Trump looks poised to pick up seats in the Senate and state houses. In the month leading up to the election, Democrats help a 12%-15% advantage in generic polling. Most recent ABC News/Washington Post and NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls show Democrat at around 7%-8%, shrinking before Election Day.
Trump has been a relentless campaigner for GOP House and Senate candidates, looking, on the one hand, like he’s losing ground but, on the other, an eerie déjà vu for Democrats in the 2016 elections. None of the major polls expected Trump to beat former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Yet a last minute surge put Trump over the top in battlegrounds states. While Trump’s not on Tuesday’s ballot, voters know they’re voting for Trump’s economy, the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years, with a growth three-to-four times the size of Obama’s. Voter turnout will no doubt impact Tuesday’s outcome, something favoring Republicans. While it’s hard to gauge voter enthusiasm between Democrats and Republicans, both parties have much at stake. If Democrats don’t make a strong showing, it could indicate bad things to come in the 2020 presidential election.
If Democrats eke out a small House majority but lose seats in the Senate, it’s not going to look good heading into 2020. Looking beyond Tuesday’s vote, everyone awaits Special Counsel Robert Mueller report on Russian meddling and alleged Trump collusion in the 2016 election. If Mueller finds no collusion, but, more importantly, that Trump did not obstruct of justice firing former FBI Director James Comey, then Trump comes out the Midterms with wind at his back. If Mueller finds Russian collusion or obstruction, then the Democrat-controlled House will no doubt hold endless hearings leading to impeachment. If Trump gets the same kind of surge from GOP voters, Democrats may not takeover the House, something that would be a disaster for the party. When you consider the mainstream media is 100% against Trump, it’s remarkable the GOP is running competitively.
Eking out a small House victory would not be a good omen for Democrats moving forward to the 2020 presidential election. With the media, according to a Harvard University study, about 93% biased against Trump, it doesn’t say much winning a small House majority. Against Democrat strategy, Trump has salvaged his low approval ratings, something comparable to Obama in 2010 when he lost the House and Senate. Trump’s approval ratings have moved up from the mid-30s to the mid-40s, due to improvements in the U.S. economy. As Trump’s approval ratings rise, in part due to the strong showing of Wall Street and U.S. economy, it’s more difficult for Democrats to go consistently negative. Democrats have run on Trump’s attempt to dismantle Obamacare, shifting attention away from the U.S. economy. Every time there’s economic good news, Trump’s approval rating improves.
Whether Trump and the GOP can make up enough ground before Tuesday to salvage GOP control of the House is anyone’s guess. Recent polls show Democrats shrinking on a generic ballot against the GOP. If Trump’s last minute push makes a difference, Democrats could be looking at a repeat of the 2016 election, losing by a hair at the finish line. Even if Democrats eke out a small House majority, it won’t be enough to do anything other than change party leadership. Talk of impeachment puts the cart-before-the horse, especially not knowing what Mueller says in his final report to Congress. Having such a tough time getting back the House indicates that Democrats haven’t found any compelling issue on which to run in 2018. Trump’s message of improved border security and a strong economy eclipses Democrats push to save Obamacare, even where it’s clearly not working.
