Every mainstream media organization in the U.S., except Fox Newa, has predicted a “blue wave” in the 2018 Midterm elections, where Democrats hope to take back the House and the Senate. Democrats hoped to do to Trump what Republicans did to former President Barack Obama in 2010, take back the House and Senate. No one in the mainstream press admits that Obama was a disaster for the Democratic Party, losing the House and Senate in 2010. With all the bad press against Trump, Democrats hoped to influence public opinion enough to seize control of Congress, something not likely to happen on Election Day Nov. 6. Aggregate polling reported in Real Clear Politics give Democrats, at best, a 50/50 chance of retaking the House, nearly a zero percent chance of taking back the Senate. Democrats need 24 seats to flip the House but need 15 of the 29 toss-up seats to go their way.
Unlike the Democrat Party, President Donald Trump has been campaigning nonstop for GOP House and Senate candidates, hosting rallies in battleground states around the country. While Democrats have former President Barack Obama, former Vice President Joe Biden and a variety of celebrities on the campaign trail, Democrats don’t have a charismatic candidate to mobilize the base. Trump hopes the immigration headlines, with thousands of Central American refugees descending on the U.S. border turns the tide. Ordering up to 15,000 U.S. troops on the U.S.-Mexican border, Trump has found the issue to mobilize the GOP base. Midterm elections typically get weak turnouts, far under 50%, especially for Democrats. While total GOP registration is lower than Democrats, Democrats usually get far less turn out for Midterm elections, something likely on Tuesday.
Trump has warned the base in a series of campaign rallies the consequences of a Democrat House takeover. Divided government would no doubt make almost any legislative agenda impossible for Trump over the next two years, while Democrats wield the best possible candidates to take on Trump in 2020. With Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s final report about Russian meddling and alleged Trump collusion in the 2016 election expected after the Midterm elections, no one knows what will happen. If Trump’s cleared by Mueller, it’s going to give him a tailwind heading into 2020. Capturing the House would no doubt galvanize anti-Trump Democrats, like Rep. Maxine Watters (D-Calif.) to start impeachment proceedings, despite knowing she’d fail in the Senate to convict the president. All the criticism of Trump from the mainstream press has held down Trump’s approval ratings.
Since Trump beat former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton Nov. 8, 2016, the media and Democrat Party has stood on their heads to discredit Trump. Only recently has Trump’s approval ratings risen to near 50%, a milestone when you consider all the bad publicity. Democrats hoped that Trump bad approval ratings would help Democrats retake the House and Senate in 2018. All indications look like Democrats only hope now is winning at least 15 of the 29-toss-up House seats heading into the Midterms. Cook’s Political Report gives Democrats the edge of 209 seats heading into the Nov. 6. Cook’s report gives Republicans only 197 secure seats, meaning that Democrats need to pull off more of the 29-toss-up seats than Republicans to regain control of the House. Democrats need pick up six toss-up seats or those currently leaning Republican, a difficult seat.
While aggregate polling five days out from the elections shows Democrats with a slight edge, the polls were wrong in 2016. Unlike Trump and the GOP, Democrats have no overriding issue on which they’re running. Talking about health care doesn’t motivate voters like Trump’s immigration issue, where many voters are genuinely worried about what’s happening at the border. If Trump continues to influence voters in Midwestern swing states, Democrats could find it difficult to get 15 of 29 toss-up seats currently in play. Seats in West Virginia and Tennessee have leaned Republican, not likely to somehow go to Democrats. Seats in Indiana and North Dakota also lean Republican, making the House battle all the more difficult for Democrats. Trump’s nonstop campaigning has helped toss-up seats, especially those GOP leaning states in the South and Midwest.
With polls predicting a Democrat victory in the House next Tuesday, those same polls predicted Hillary would be the next president of the United States. While House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has guaranteed a Democrat victory Nov. 6, Democrats look like they’re counting their chickens too soon. Trump’s relentless campaign turned things in his favor in 2016 and it could do the same next Tuesday. When you consider that most incumbents lose the House in Midterm elections, it’s remarkable that Trump’s GOP remains so competitive. Watching nightly images of heavily-numbered Central American caravans moving toward the U.S. border, the GOP base has become more galvanized heading into Election Day. Democrats can complain about health care but they can’t do the same about the U.S. economy. A new Harris Poll said today that Trump gets credit for the economy, giving the GOP the edge.
