When Kim Jong-Un had his half-brother murdered with VX nerve agent in the Singapore, Malyasia airport Feb. 14, 2017, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was watching carefully how the reclusive Stalinist dictator deals with family. Bin Salman watched Russian President Vladimir Putin dispose of his of his enemies when his agents gave former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko Nov. 1, 2006 a lethal cocktail of Polonium 210, a radio active isotope from a Russian nuclear reactors. Only a month before Oct. 7, 2006, anti-Putin Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya was shot dead in the elevator in her apartment. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman learned from the best how to intimidate, whether journalists, activists or family. When Jamal Khashoggi disappeared Oct. 2, rumored killed by a Saudi hit squad in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Bin Salman left his mark.
Intimidating the opposition is the way of tyrannical dictators, no matter what the country or period of history. Bin Salman becomes the latest tyrant trying to ingratiate himself to world leaders before his true colors came out in the Khashoggi affair. President Donald Trump pledged that he’d get to the bottom of what happened to Khashoggi, letting the Turks and Saudis complete their investigation into Khashoggi’s disappearance. When it comes to doing business of brutal dictatorships, the U.S. picks-and-choose its friends-and-enemies. While it’s popular for elected officials to vilify the former Soviet Union or Russian Federation, Communist China or North Korea,
Saudi Arabia is given a pass because of its ties to multinational oil companies, historically buying Saudi crude oil. Trump called the Saudis a strong Mideast ally, despite its human rights abuses.
Routine beheadings in the public square are usual-and-customary for Saudi Arabia. Sending a 15-man hit squad to kill and dismember Khashoggi should have come as no surprise to anyone, considering what goes on in the Kingdom. While King Salman and Bin Salman deny any government role in Khashoggi’s disappearance, it’s clear from all the evidence at the crime scene that they gave the orders. When the facts come out and the Saudi government denies any state involvement, the international community will have to make their own judgment. Visiting Saudi Arabia Oct. 17, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the Turks and the Saudis were cooperating in the investigation. “He made clear that the Saudis had cooperated with the investigation that the Turks are engaged in and that they’re going to share information that they learn with the Saudis as well,” said Pompeo.
Giving the Turks and Saudis enough time to investigate Khashoggi’s disappearance allows the international community space to form its own judgments. Knowing that most reports point a Saudi state-ordered assassination, it’s going to be difficult for the Saudis to sell another explanation. “There have been a couple of delays but they seemed pretty confident that the Saudis would permit them to do the things they need to do to complete their thorough and complete investigation,” said Pompeo, hopeful the facts would come out soon. President Trump’s been reluctant to rush-to-judgment but has said that if the facts point to a Saudi state-sponsored assassination, there’s going to be consequences regardless of Saudi threats to retaliate. Calling any involvement in Khashoggi’s disappearance “baseless,” the Saudi government has boxed itself into a corner.
Sending a message to Saudi dissidents at home and abroad, Bin Salman proves he’s as ruthless as Putin and Kim Jong-un. Intimidating the opposition exposing Saudi’s brutal repression of free speech and human rights, making dissent punished by political assassination. Elected officials like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) have made clear there will be hell to pay for Saudi Arabia if today’s press reports about Khashoggi prove correct. Whatever past relationship the U.S. has enjoyed with Saudi Arabia, the U.S. can’t support extra-judicial assassination to squelch political dissent. Had Bin Salman stuck to vaporizing dissidents inside the Kingdom, he could have gotten away with murder indefinitely, without exposing for the world to see its brutal repression. When the Turks and Saudis finish the investigation, Trump will know what to do.
Trump may want to continue the billions of dollars in defense contracts but there won’t be much support in Congress if the facts turn out as they look today. Saudi Arabia doesn’t have too many options left but to own up to what happened. Calling Khashoggi’s death a botched interrogation or not ordered by the Saudi government doesn’t have plausible deniability. Running out of choices, King Salman may have to put his son on the shelf, appointing a new heir apparent to the thrown. King Salman can still save face by showing that he can constrain his renegade son who’s brought disgrace on the Kingdom. If King Salman continues the denials, it’s going to be difficult for the U.S—or its allies—to conduct business as usual. If King Salman owns up to what happened and applies consequences to his son, the Kingdom can survive the crisis without dire economic consequences.
