When 72-year-old President Donald Trump cancelled former President Barack Obama’s 2015 Iranian Nuke May 8, Iran went into a frenzy, trying to stop other counties from joining Trump’s sanctions. After Nov. 1, Trump plans to sanction any country doing oil business with Tehran, making it impossible to continue the P5+1, U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China and Germany, deal that offered Iran cash and sanctions relief in exchange for Iran suspending it uranium enrichment program. Iran insists it never worked on weapons grade uranium with the intent of building an A-bomb. Yet every time Trump threatens to stop Iran’s oil trade, Iranian officials threaten to ramp up uranium enrichment activities. If Iran wasn’t working on a bomb, why would it threaten to ramp up uranium enrichment if Trump applies new sanctions? Most Western intel agencies believe Iran’s developing atomic weapons.
Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh rejects statements by Saudi Arabian Defense Minister Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that the Kingdom could make up oil production from a loss of Iranian oil. “[Mohammed] bin Salman and such bragging can only satisfy U.S. President Donald Trump. No one else will believe him. Iran’s oil cannot be replaced by Saudi Arabia nor any other country,” said Zanganeh. Zanganeh knows perfectly well that Saudi Arabia can make up for any loss of Iranian crude oil. Bin Salaman said Oct. 5 that Saudi Arabia promised Washington that whatever loss of Iranian oil from renewed sanctions, the Kingdom would make it up. Bin Salman has no sympathy since Iran’s March 22, 2015 war in Yemen, firing ballistic missiles at Riyadh and the Saudi Airport. Trump’s pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPA] to stop Iran’s war in Yemen.
Supplying Yemen’s Houthi rebels with ballistic missiles to hit Riyadh and the Saudi Airport, Iran has started a proxy war against Saudi Arabia in Yemen, hoping to strike the Kingdom. Iran’s mischief, supplying arms-and-cash to Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, prompted Trump to withdraw from the JCPA. Expecting biting sanctions to restrict Iranian oil sales Nov. 1, Iran’s starting to panic, especially after watching its currency plummet to new lows. Trump wants U.S. allies to stop buying oil from Iran Nov. 1. Iran remains the world’s third largest oil producer behind the United States and Saudi Arabia. Trump hopes that hitting Iran’s oil sales would convince the Mullah government to stop its proxy war in Yemen. Iran thinks the price spike in crude oil to $83 a barrel directly relates to re-imposing sanctions on Iran’s oil production.
Iran believes that worldwide demand for crude oil or refined products continues to drive up the price of oil on world markets. “The price hike in the market is the best evidence to state that . . . the market faces a supply shortage and it is worried,” said Zanganeh, warning oil producers that if Iran can’t sell it crude than no one will sell crude, including Saudi Arabia. Zanganeh threatened to shut down the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz through which one third of the world’s petroleum passes. If Iran’s swift boat fleet tries the block the Persian Gulf, Iran knows the U.S. would intervene militarily, potentially threatening Tehran’s Mullah regime Trump and his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo think Iran is the world’s leading state sponsor of state terror, calling for collective action to stop Iran. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz would be seen by Trump as an act of war
Of all the things Tehran wants to avoid is a military confrontation by the U.S. government. Any action to block the Strait of Hormuz would result in war with the U.S., surely toppling the Mullah regime. While no one knows what would replace Mullah regime, most Iranians would welcome it. Since taking over in a coup in 1979, the Ayatollah’s regime has been a repressive force in Iran, driving away most of Iran’s engineers, scientists and intellects. “Any country that makes such claims . . . just wants to display its support for the U.S. sanctions against Iran,” said Zanganeh, warning other countries to not follow suit. Iran banks on it’s oils customers to find clever ways to defeat U.S. sanctions, continuing to buy oil from Tehran. Zanganeh thinks the U.S. and Saudi Arabia will fail to stop Iranian oil deliveries because the world can’t afford for Tehran to halt oil deliveries.
Iran has lobbied hard for its customers to reject Trump’s attempt to stop oil sales, threatening to slap sanctions on any county doing business with the U.S. Iran tried to divide the P5+1, telling the U.K., France, China, Russia and Germany to stick by Iran after the renegade Trump breached the JCPA. While China and Russia have their own beef with the U.S., the U.K. and France aren’t likely to continue oil sales with Tehran, knowing the amount of trade with the U.S. China, who buys plenty of Iranian oil, isn’t expected to cut back anytime soon. Russia, which sells oil on world markets, also isn’t likely to follow Trump’s warnings. “What the Saudis had been supplying the market with, were not from Riyadh’s spare capacity but from tapping its oil stocks,” said Zanganeh, calling Saudi’s bluff. But whether it’s new or old oil, flooding the market hurts Iran’s oil sales.
