When 34-year-old North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un met with 72-year-old President Donald Trump June 12, the whole world sighed with relief over the prospects of peace on the Korean Peninsula. Before the summit, Trump and Kim traded barbs and threats, with North Korea Foreign Minister Ri Yong ho saying Sept. 29, 2017 that it’s “inevitable” North Korea Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles [ICBMs] would hit the U.S. Twelve months later, Trump talks of a “bromance” between the two leaders, with neither country threatening the other. Whether admitted to or not, tensions on the Korean Peninsula have been greatly reduced due to Kim and Trump’s willingness to talk face-to-face. Only Democrats in Congress and their media friends have criticized Trump for failing to deliver on his promise of denulearization. Now Kim says denuclearization no possible in the current atmosphere.
Behind the scenes, the U.S., North and South Koreas are busy working on a peace treaty, 65-years after the July 27, 1953 end to the Korean War. Ripping Trump for not delivering yet on denuclearization, the press finds any reason possible to find fault with Trump’s diplomacy with North Korea. But it you really look at what’s changed, North Korea’s no longer threatening to hit the U.S. homeland with a nuclear-tipped ICBM. Meeting of South Korean President Moon Jae-in, Kim offered to shut down North Korea’s Yongbyon heavy-water plutonium plant but only if the U.S. were to take similar measures, something not clear to South Korea or U.S. officials. “The end of war . . . is not just a gift from a man to another at all. Furthermore, it can never be a bargaining chip for getting the DPRK denuclearization,” said the DPRK’s official KCNA news agency repeating Kim’s position.
North Korea wants the U.S. to let up on sanctions as a confidence building exercise, something the U.S. has refused to do. Trump and his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wants Kim to make good on his promise at the June 12 summit in Singapore, Malaysia to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. Moon wants Kim to disarm but is far more focused on relaxing tensions between the two Koreas. U.S. officials aren’t looking at Kim’s nukes as a “bargaining chip,” they see denulearization as the key to normalizing U.S.-North Korean relations. Kim wants to keep his nukes but at what price? Now he’s under strict sanctions on energy and food that could help life the DPRK out of its abysmal poverty. Kim hasn’t yet come to grips with the idea that his nukes and ballistic missiles prevent North Korean from economic development. Kim still sees his nukes as leverage against the U.S. and other countries.
Trump and Pompeo have to rethink U.S.-North Korean strategy before things return to the state before the summit. No one wants to see the U.S. and North Korea hurling nuclear threats at each other. “The North is trying to reduce the negotiation value of Washington’s potential offer of a peace treaty, by suggesting that it’s not good enough to make us denuclearize,” Cho Sung-ryul, an analyst at Seoul-based Institute of National Security Strategy. With Trump boasting about a friendly letter from Kim asking for another summit, the time’s right for a peace treaty without preconditions, especially expecting Kim to disarm his nukes and ballistic missiles. Disarmament should be part of ongoing discussions once Trump and Pompeo has inked a peace treaty. Whether or not Kim has nukes and ICBMs, a peace treaty means the two countries are no longer in a state of war but actively working together.
When you consider all the national resources and prestige put into its nukes and ballistic missiles, the DPRK isn’t likely to abandon its greatest national accomplishment without U.S. commitments on security and nation-building. Estimating the DPRK’s arsenal of nukes and ICBMs is useless, unless the U.S. is willing to do something about it. Calling Kim’s “beautiful letters,” Trump shows none of the hostility once part of his relationship with Kim. Looking to meet again for another summit, Kim wants to continue the dialogue of how to proceed to normalize U.S.-North Korean relations. South Korea’s reunification minister Cho Myoungyon estimated that Kim now possesses between 20-60 A-bombs, urging both countries to continue on the path of denuclearization. No one in South Korea—or the U.S.—wants to see it at war with North Korea ever again
Instead of focusing on denuclearization, the White House should pivot to completing a workable peace treaty with the DPRK. Disarming Kim’s nukes and ballistic missiles should come after a peace treaty where South Korea and the U.S. has reassurances about Kim’s peaceful intentions. With a workable peace treaty, the U.S. should be far less concerned about North Korea’s nukes and ballistic missiles, focusing instead on economic development. Once Kim understands that his nukes and ballistic missiles prevent the DPRK from economic development, he’ll no longer have the same meaning. With a workable peace treaty, Kim’s nukes and ICBMs no longer have the same clout when combined with a peace treaty. Foreign leaders, like German Chancellor Angela Merkel, are thrilled Trump and Kim have improved their relationship, relaxing tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
