Meeting in Sochi, Russia today, 65-year-old Russian president Vladimir Putin and 64-year-old Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to create a buffer zone in Syria, essentially annexing Syrian territory near the Turkish border to stave off a possible assault on rebel strongholds. While the deal looks like an attempt to avert a new humanitarian crisis if Syria, Russian and Iranian troops begin an all-out assault on rebel safe havens, a deal can’t possibly sit well with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Al-Assad has said on many occasions he won’t rest until every rebel and terrorist group has been removed from Syrian territory. Today’s deal lets rebel groups essentially stay put in Idlib, in what becomes a demilitarized zone. Carving out 10-15 kilometers [9-12 miles] inside Syria on the Turkish border essentially gives 60,000 Syrian rebels a permanent safe haven.
While the plan seems a brilliant compromise, Putin can’t possibly think al-Assad would allow one inch of his territory ceded to Saudi-Turkey-U.S.-funded rebels seeking to topple his regime. Saudi Arabia’s Defense Minister Crow Prince Mohammed bin Salman and U.S.-educated Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir have said they would never give up the fight to topple al-Assad. “I believe that with this agreement we prevented a great humanitarian crisis in Idlib,” said Erdogan standing next to Putin in Sochi. “We agreed that practical implementation of the steps we plan will give a fresh impetus to the process of political settlement of the Syrian conflict and will make it possible to invigorate efforts in the Geneva format and will help restore peace in Syria,” said Erdogan. When Erdogan talks of the Geneva protocol, he’s talking about Staffan de Mistura’s attempt to get al-Assad out of Damascus.
When you consider what’s at stake in Syria, al-Assad certainly won’t agree to cede sovereign territory to Saudi-backed rebels determined to topple his regime. Since becoming the U.N.’s special peace envoy in 2014, de Mistura has watched some 200,000 Syrians lose their lives, millions more displaced to neighboring countries and Europe. When Germany took nearly 1 million Syrian refugees in 2015, it sparked a rift between the European Union, the U.K. and other EU countries, like Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland, all opposed to accepting Syrian refugees. Syrian opposition spokesman Ahmed Ramadan said Russia caved to Turkish demands to avoid what looked like a slow moving train wreck in Idlib. With 13,000 more casualties since June, Erdogan hoped to slow the carnage down, especially if no agreement could be reached. Russia believes al-Assad would acquiesce to the agreement.
Seeking control of the main highway connection Idlib with other Syrian cities, the agreement gets rebels and terrorist to relinquish control. Erdogan and Putin agreed that Islamist groups like the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS] and al-Qaeda must leave Syria. Al-Assad has made no distinction between Saudi-Turkey-U.S. funded rebels and Islamist groups in the past. How al-Assad would accept allowing rebels to stay in safe havens in Syria near the Turkish border makes no sense. “Turkey offered Putin a ladder with which to climb down from the tree threatening a military offensive in Idlip that had little chance of success,” said Ramadan, also making zero sense. Ramadan knows that Saudi-Turkey-U.S. funded rebels groups have been driven by Syria, Russia and Iran out of all their safe havens, now ending up Idlib. Ramadan knows that a new offensive would wipe out the Syrian opposition.
Convinced that Turkey was the new power broker in Syria, Ramadan believes that the opposition finally has what it wanted: A permanent safe haven in Syria. Spokesman for the Turkey-funded rebel group Faylaq al-Sham Abu Omar thanked Erdogan for stopping what looked like an impending massacre. While Erdogan thinks he’s played Putin, it’s doubtful Putin really accepts rebels’ new buffer zone, or, for that matter, Erdogan’s permanent military presence in Syria. Omar’s kidding himself that opposition groups enjoy the support of Russia, especially after Russia’s spent the last three years ridding rebel group from Syria. Convinced the deal “would not have been possible without the steadfastness of our people and fighters. That you, Erdogan,” said Omar. Staving off growing Western concerns about a new massacre, Putin bought Syria more time to plan its next move.
Thinking that the wily Putin accepts Erdogan’s buffer zone for Saudi-Turkey-U.S. funded Syrian rebels is naïve, only lasting until something triggers the next onslaught by Syrian, Russian and Iranian troops. Letting Erdogan think he’s calling the shots, Putin helps al-Assad buy more time while he plots his next move in Idlib. When Erdogan talks of the Geneva process, he’s talking about Staffan de Mistura’s attempt to remove al-Assad from Damascus, allowing the Free Syrian Army or its newly constituted Syrian Democratic Forces to take over Damascus. Putin knows that the Geneva process placates Saudi Arabia, still committed to the Arab Spring, ousting dictators anywhere possible. Allowing Erdogan to cede rebels 9 to 12 miles of territory in Syria along the Turkish border gives rebels hope that their dream of conquering Damascus is still possible, when, in reality, Russia won’t let it happen.
