Charged Oct. 30, 2017 with conspiracy, money laundering, tax evasion and bank fraud by Special Counsel Robert Mueller for lobbying work in the Ukraine in 2006, 69-year-old former Trump Campaign Chairman Paul Manafort had his bail yanked by a U.S. District Court Judge Amy Berman Jackson today. Mueller charged Manafort June 6 with witness tampering, after FBI wiretaps determined the former Nixon, Ford and Reagan adviser allegedly contacted potential witnesses to influence testimony before trial. Whether that really happened as alleged is anyone’s guess, as are Mueller’s charges for violating federal lobbying laws. In denying the government’s charges, Manafort’s attorney said it’s not required to register lobbyists overseas like in the states. Yanking Manafort’s bail, Trump’s former campaign manager will have plenty of time to plan his defense behind bars
Mueller’s charges against Manafort and his former business partner Rick Gates have been touted by Democrats and anti-Trump press a proof of Russian collusion. Neither Manafort nor Gates nor anyone affiliated with his lobbying work had anything to do with the 2016 campaign. Manafort’s lobbying work for former Kremlin-backed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich occurred 10 years before Trump’s campaign, but somehow became fair game to the Special Counsel. Whether Mueller charged Manafort or not or whether he’s now sitting in a federal jail, does not mean any charges will stick. All indications point toward Manafort eventually getting off when a competent defense team turns Mueller’s case into mincemeat. “You have abused the trust placed in you six months ago,” said Judge Berman-Jackson, referring to Mueller’s original indictment last October.
None of Manafort’s charges stem from work on the Trump campaign. Mueller indicted Manafort and his long-time associate Konstatin Kilmnik on witness tampering, telling witnesses to say they were only paid for work overseas not in the U.S. Adding more multiple felony counts to Manafort, if convicted, could get him up to 30 years behind bars. Judge Berman-Jackson said she “struggled” with her decision to yank Manafort’s bail, saying she couldn’t “turn a blind eye.” Berman-Jackson had no choice to yank Manafort’s bail but its say nothing over whether Mueller’s charges will stick at trial. Violating federal lobbying laws especially overseas enters murky ground where most foreign activity is not restricted by U.S. laws. Manafort contends he did nothing wrong raking win millions from the Ukrainian government well before Yanukovich was chased out of Kiev Feb. 22, 2014.
Judge Berman Jackson doesn’t know the strength of the Mueller’s case against Manafort, other than some wiretapped conversations. Those same wiretapped conversations pushed former National Security Adviser Gen. Michael Flynn out of his job and forced Atty. Gen. Jeff Sessions to recuse himself from Mueller’s Russian probe. When Manafort’s defense team get their shot, they could easily make the government’s case look like Swiss cheese. Cross-examining witness at trial can turn Mueller’s case against Manafort on its head. Getting a grand jury to charge doesn’t mean anything when the government’s case faces competent defense counsel. Manafort’s activities oversea can easily be beyond the reach of U.S. law enforcement, especially when it comes to enforcing lobbying laws in foreign lands. Unregistered lobbying is a crime in the U.S. but not on foreign soil.
Whether or not Manafort raked in obscene amounts of cash on foreign soil should be on no consequence to Mueller’s probe into Russian meddling in the 2016 election. Going after anyone’s past business activities or what they did with their cash seems out of the Special Counsel’s lane. Whatever the charges, Mueller will have an uphill battle convincing a jury that wiretapped conversations involve witness tampering, especially when the lobbying work occurred overseas. Manfort contends he worked for the Hapsbug group purely overseas, not in the U.S. Prosecutors contend that the Hapsburg group worked extensively in the U.S. Whether or not Manafort was involved in that work is anyone’s guess. Mueller claims he possesses Manafort’s email showing a Hapsburg group seeking to influence U.S. lawmakers. That’s a big stretch when Manafort worked for Yanukovich in 2006.
Throwing Manafort in jail makes great headlines but doesn’t say much about whether or not Trump’s former Campaign Manager broke any U.S. lobbying laws for work done in the Ukraine in 2006. Democrats and their media friends want to tie Manafort to the Kremlin during the 2016 campaign but there’s no connection. Letting the Special Counsel use his grand jury designed for the Russian meddling probe to charge Manafort for foreign lobbying activities 10 years before the campaign won’t sit well with jurors. Talking to past associates about work performed 10 years ago doesn’t sound like witness tampering, only getting caught up with old relationships. Speculation about Klimnik’s ties to Russian intelligence only makes Mueller’s case weaker, trying to stretch the evidence. Throwing Manafort in jail for 12-year-old foreign lobbying work guarantees the government nothing.
