Declaring victory over Kurdish Protection Units [YPG militia] in Afrin, Syria March 19, 63-year-old Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to continue his fight against the Kurds in the borderland in southern Turkey next to the Syrian and Iraq border. Erdogan got blessings from newly reelected 65-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has nothing in particular against the Kurds but wants to weaken the U.S. reach in the region. Putin knows that the Kurd’s YPG was largely the U.S. boots-on-the-ground fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS] in Iraq and Syria. With all the anti-Russian rhetoric coming out of Washington and new round of economic sanctions March 14, Putin knows how to play the geopolitics, using Turkey to get back at the U.S. Considered a NATO ally, Erdogan plays all-sides-against-the middle, joining Russia wherever convenient.
Erdogan wants the U.S. to stop partnering with the YPG, joining Russian and Iranian efforts to rid the region of any rebel group opposed to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Putin knows that Erdogan’s no fan of al-Assad, having spent seven years backing the Saudi proxy war to oust him from Damascus. Yet to Putin the enemy-of-my-enemy-is-my-friend, backing Erdogan’s obsession with Kurds. Erdogan paints all Kurds with the same broad brush, aligning them with the hated Kurdistan Workers Party [PKK], whose years of seeking independence makes them an enemy of Turkey. Giving Erdogan the green light to go after the Kurds, Putin essentially starts a proxy war with the U.S. against Turkey. Already seizing the opportunity in East Ghouta, where anti-regime rebels lost another stronghold March 10, ISIS has shown a unique ability to regroup, especially with Turkey battling the YPG.
Erdogan shows no regard to Syria’s fragile geopolitics, where terror groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda are ready to advance. “We’ll continue this process until we completely abolish this corridor,” said Erdogan, referring to his victory of the Kurds in Afrin. But the Kurds have served for years a buffer against real terror group like al-Qaeda and ISIS. “One night, we could suddenly enter Sinjar,” where the Kurds saved the Yazidis when ISIS wiped out 5,000 Sinjar residents in 2014. “The final destination is a Turkish war on the Kurds throughout northern and eastern Syria that destroys the YPG and forces the America to work by, with and through Turkey,” said Nicholas Haeras, Mideast expert at Washington-based Center of a New American Security. Ridding the region of the YPG forces the U.S. to either put boots-on-the-group or oppose Turkey’s anti-Kurds strategy.
Turkey wants the U.S. to move largely Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces out of Manjib where the U.S. military has military bases. U.S. Special Envoy Brett McGurk already abandoned the Kurds once when Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi sought to evict the Kurds from Mosul and Kirkuk in Northern Iraq. U.S. officials stood idly by while the Iraqi military evicted the Kurds from Mosul Oct. 17, 2017. McGurk warned the Kurds not to vote for independence, expecting the U.S. would not defend the Kurds against an Iraqi assault. Now the U.S. has even bigger problems watching Erdgogan go after the YPG in Afrin, considering an attack on Manjib. If Turkey attacks Manjib, what the U.S. military supposed to do? McGurk can’t tell U.S. forces based in Manjib to stand down, letting Turkey drive out the U.S. military. U.S. officials can’t abandon the Kurds for the second time. Kurd’s YPG militia delivered on ISIS for the U.S., it’s now time for the U.S. to show its loyalty.
Kurdish Peshmerga fighters know how to survive in the hinterlands of Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq. Left out in the cold at the 1922 Treaty of Versailles, the Kurds received no sovereign land after the breakup of the Ottoman Empire. Living in autonomous regions of Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran, the Kurds have served as a stabilizing force when ISIS blitzkrieged the area in 2014, stealing some 30% of Syrian and Iraqi land. Promising to retaliate against Turkey, the YPG presents problems for Turkey going forward. Calling the YPG “a big thorn” for the U.S. military in Syria, “a YPG insurgency in Afrin would prompt Turkey to escalate against the Kurds throughout northern Syria, jeopardizing the U.S.-led mission. If Erdogan attacks U.S. bases in Manjib, the U.S. military will have to respond. Abandoning the Kurds in Mosul and Kirkuk was a shameful act.
Calling Turkey’s operation in Afrin an “occupying force,” Kurdish official Aldar Khalil said it threatens “the whole of northern Syria.” European Union’s Frederica Mogherini said in Brussels today that Turkey should do everything “to deescalate the military activities, no escalating them,” yet Erdogan, with Russian backing, wants to teach the U.S. a lesson. Erdogan has nothing but disdain for the U.S. support of the YPG even if it got rid of ISIS in the region. Turkey would rather deal with ISIS than the Kurds, attesting to how longstanding vendettas rule the day. There’s good reason to believe that Erdogan, who currently gets cash from the EU to harbor Syrian refugees, wants to move Syrians back into once Kurdish areas in Iraq and Syria. With rioting and looting already in Afrin, Turkey has added to the chaos and anarchy, with the goal of punishing the U.S. for backing the YPG.
