Pressured by the U.S. and Iraq to postpone a referendum for an independent Kurdish state, 71-year-old Massoud Barzani is up to his neck with broken promises from Iraq and the U.S. Serving as the U.S. boots-on-the-ground fighting the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria [ISIS], the Kurdish YPG Peshmerga spill their blood to liberate Raqqa, Syria from ISIS. Expecting the Kurds to carry the heavy burden of fighting ISIS, the U.S. has hinted for some time about backing independent Kurdistan. Since the 2005 Iraq constitution, two years have the fall of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, the Kurds were granted autonomy in Kirkuk and northern Iraq without statehood. Moving to a statehood referendum, Barzani fulfills a lifetime dream of statehood, something denied to generations of Kurds for a hundred years. U.S. officials led by U.S. Envoy Brett McGurk don’t want to rock the boat.
Running into conflict with Syrian and Russian forces in the fight for ISIS stronghold Deir el-Zour, the U.S.-backed Kurdish-Arab militia AKA Syrian Democratic Forces [SDF] find themselves bombed the on East side of the Euphrates River. Enduring enormous hardship battling ISIS for the U.S., the Kurds YPG militia knows that today’s sacrifices are only justified with an independent Kurdish state. Iraq President Haider al-Abadi said if Barazani seizes Iraqi sovereign territory, he’ll be forced to intervene militarily, potentially setting up a confrontation with the U.S. U.S. officials fear that if Barzani goes ahead with the vote Sept. 25, it could hurt al-Abadi’s chances for reelection. “The United States has repeatedly emphasized to the leaders of the Kurdistan Regional Government that the referendum is distracting from efforts to defeat ISIS and stabilize the liberated areas,” said a White House statement.
No one knows the Kurdish situation more than McGurk who walks a razor’s edge backing the Kurds and calling for them to postpone the referendum. McGurk knows the sacrifices made by the Kurds, especially enduring Saddam’s barbaric gas attack March 16, 1988, killing around 5,000 Iraqi Kurds at Halabja, injuring 10,000. Barazani, at 71, sees no reason to delay the vote, giving the Kurds what they’ve wanted for centuries: An independent state. When the League of Nations divided the Ottoman Empire in the wake of WW I in 1918, the Kurds were left out of the proceedings. Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Syria all received sovereign territory. Barzani wants history corrected where the Kurds finally get land given to Iraq. “Holding the referendum in disputed areas is particularly provocative and destabilizing,” the White House warned, knowing that Kurds already have autonomy.
Promising the Kurds a share of Kirkuk’s oil revenue and payments to the Peshmerga militia, McGurk asked to leave the statehood question to another day, sometime after ISIS falls in Raqqa. McGurk told Barzani he backs allowing the Kurds to continue oil exports to Turkey and participating in the Iraqi elections. But, impatient over years of broken promises on statehood, Barazani wants Kurdish statehood, not simply revenue sharing. “The are very unlikely to accept a deal unless the deal had some kind of ironclad specificity and international guarantee,” said Michael Knights, an Iraq expert at the Washington Institute of Near East Policy. Threats from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey won’t deter Barzani from letting the Kurdish population vote on independence. Barzani expects the U.S. to use leverage on Baghdad, backing an independent Kurdish state despite objections from Baghdad, Ankara, Tehran and Damascus.
Whether or not Barzani postpones the referendum is anyone’s guess. He’s certainly getting pressure from Washington, Baghdad, Tehran and Damascus to delay the vote. Defense Secretary Gen. .James Mattis has a lot on his plate managing the heated North Korea situation. Postponing the Kurdish vote would give the White House time to work on al-Abadi to consider granting sovereignty to the Kurds. Ceding territory to the Kurds in Erbil would help stabilize Iraq from foreign invaders, encroaching on Iraq’s northern border with Turkey. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned the Kurds that a statehood referendum could torpedo the Kurd’s oil sales to Turkey. Considered a terrorist group by Erdogan, the Turks have been at war with the Kurds for nearly 100 years. Considering everything on Barzani’s plate, he could postpone the Sept. 25 referendum.
Barzani could very well move forward with a Sept. 25 statehood referendum. With little to lose and much to gain, Barzani knows that Kurdish sovereignty is long overdue. Unable to declare sovereignty in Turkey, Iran and Syria, Barzain may seize the opportunity in Iraq. McGurk made clear that the U.S. wants to complete the ISIS operation in Raqqa before dealing with Kurdish sovereignty. Barazani argues that the time for a sovereign Kurdish state is never right. Declaring statehood would be non-binding on the United Nations that must offer formal recognition to any group seeking sovereignty. If McGurk can offer Barzani reassurances that the U.S. backs a sovereign Kudish state in Erbil, Barzani could consider postponing the inevitable. If the U.S. offers no guarantee to the Kurds for statehood before Sept. 25, Barzani has nothing to lose holding the referendum.
