Meeting at the Elysee Palace today with 51-year-old Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, France’s 49-year-old President Emanuel Macron pledged to not accept Russia’s March 1, 2014 annexation of Crimea. Given to Ukraine in 1954 by Nikita Khrushchev while part of the Soviet Union, Putin decided to seize the territory following a Feb. 11, 2014 pro-Western coup that toppled duly elected Kremlin-backed President Viktor Yanukovich. Putin sat idly by hosting the Sochi Winter Olympics when pro-Western forces drove Yanukovich from Kiev. Once the Games ended Feb. 23, Russian President Vladimir Putin wasted no time moving in Russian troops, sending the international community into seizures. Whatever strategic benefits Putin gets from Crimea, its more than outweighed as a global pariah, alienating Russia’s economic partners from Europe and the United States
Macron let Poroshenko know that France stands behind the territorial integrity of Ukraine, including Crimea and the Donbass regions of Southeastern Ukraine where Putin backed pro-Russian separatists no longer willing to live under Kiev’s pro-Western control. When Putin annexed Crimea March 1, 2014, former President Barack Obama did almost nothing, letting the U.N. Security Council fashion economic sanctions. When you consider the gravity of Putin seizing Crimea, Obama waited until Dec. 30, 2016 to slap sanctions on Russia, expelling 35 Russian diplomats for alleged meddling in the 2016 campaign. When Obama was informed by the intel community about Russian hacking of the Democratic National Committee and Hillary Campaign Chairman John D. Podesta in August 2016, Obama did almost nothing, prompting criticism yesterday from Democratic House Intel co-chair Adam Schiff (D-Calif.).
Putin visited Crimea June 24, prompting objections from Poroshenko and other European Union officials. “France is committed to Ukraine’s sovereignty with its recognized borders,” Macron told Poroshenko, offering no economic, political or military assistance to return Crimea to Ukraine. Putin’s seizing of Crimea created gyrations in NATO, where countries like Poland and the Baltic States requested more military assistance. Putin’s move to annex Crimea, prompted the U.S. to send more troops and missile defense systems to the region. Putin deployed more Iskander ballistic missiles in Kalingrad to neutralize NATO’s troop and air defense build-up. Putin annexed Crimea because he was worried Poroshenko would cancel his lease on Russia’s Sevastopol Black Sea naval base. Poroshenko has practically stood on his head to get Putin give back Crimea, something not close to happening.
U.S. and EU negotiators hoped Putin would follow the Sept. 5, 2014 Minsk I and Feb. 11, 2015 Minsk II agreements requiring Russia to withdraw armed support to pro-Russian separatists in the Donbass region. Russia’s been under strict economic sanctions since March 2016, showing no signs of returning Crimea to Ukraine. Both Minsk protocols don’t require Moscow to return Crimea at any future date, only withdraw economic and military backing to pro-Russian separatists. Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe [OSCE] claims Russian has subjected its monitors to “unacceptable intimidation and obstacles” in the Donbass region where Putin backed pro-Russian separatists to breakaway from Kiev. EU countries condemn Putin’s actions in Crimea but do too much business with Russia, especially when it comes to petroleum and natural gas sales.
Creating dependence on energy in the EU, Putin cleverly made it difficult for the Brussels’-based EU to take a strong stand against Russia. Lativia, Estonia and Lithuania have been worried about a possible Russian invasion since seizing Crimea in 2014. Whether justified or not, Putin’s given the impression that he’ll take anything he wants to protect Russia’s motherland. Macron could only give Poroshenko so much reassurance knowing that there’s little stomach in the EU or NATO to confront Moscow. Deploying more NATO troops and missile defense in Eastern Europe has escalated tensions with Moscow, threatening Europe with more ballistic missiles. With most EU countries ready to end economic sanctions, NATO has little clout to confront Russia in any part of Europe. Poland and the Baltics believe that if Putin could do it in Crimea, he could grab back former Soviet republics.
Putin’s issue with Crimea involves the continuity of Russia’s warm-water fleet in Sebastopol. Poroshenko has shown no willingness to work with Putin on a long-term lease in Sebastopol, should the Kremlin decide that the costs of possessing Crimea far outweigh the benefits. Getting Putin to stop supporting pro-Russian separatists in Southeastern Ukraine would go a long way in the West ending economic sanctions. Poroshenko wants nothing less than the return of Crimea. Whatever poll Russia conducted March 14, 2016 showing 96% of Crimeans wanted to join the Russian Federation, it was not their call. No one in the U.S., EU or NATO looks to evict Russia from Crimea by force. All parties hope Putin realizes that the costs of annexation outweigh the benefits. There’s no question that Poroshenko would make Putin a deal to get back sovereignty.
