Repulsed by new images of dead babies in Idlib, Syria from a Sarin nerve gas attack, 70-year-old Donald Trump said he was rethinking his policy on Syria. Trump criticized former President Barack Obama for backing the six-year-old Saudi proxy war, supplying arms-and-cash to rebel groups seeking to topple 51-year-old Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Trump was especially critical of Obama for saying in 2013 that the use of chemical weapons was a “red line,” prompting U.S. military intervention. When al-Assad used chemical weapons in 2013, Obama did nothing, other than continue to give arms-and-cash to Syrian rebel groups. Now Trump faces a dilemma, responding to al-Assad’s April 4 Sarin nerve gas attack on rebel-controlled areas of Idlib, killing at least 80 civilians, mostly women, children and babies. Trump finds himself with few good options in Syria..
Calling the April 4 poison gas attack an “affront on humanity,” Trump offered no hint of how his Syrian policy would change. Before the gas attack, Trump accepted that Russia, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia worked for two years to save al-Assad. When Russian President Vladimir Putin decided Sept. 30, 2015 to back Syrian forces up with relentless air strikes on rebel strongholds, the six-year-old Saudi-funded proxy war tipped in al-Assad’s favor. Saudi’s Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir stated publicly March 5, 2016 that al-Assad must leave Damascus or the war would not stop. Obama played along with the Saudis for six years, giving arms-and-cash to Saudi-backed rebel groups. Speaking in Ankara, Turkey March 30, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said it’s up to the Syrian people to decide what happens to al-Assad. Sen. John McCain (R-Az.) bristled at the idea.
Trump’s under pressure from Sen. John McCain (R-Az.) to intervene more forcefully in Syria. Urging Trump, just like he did former President Barack Obama Oct. 12, 2016, to set up a no fly-zone, preventing the Syrian Air Force from flying combat missions, McCain called for decisive U.S. military action. McCain knows that Russia backs al-Assad, setting up a dangerous confrontation. Whether al-Assad used chemical weapons or not, McCain’s knee-jerk reaction ignores the fact that Saudi-backed rebel forces continue to occupy Syrian sovereign territory. Al-Assad wants all terrorists—including the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria—out of Syria. McCain’s approach, to back the six-year-old Saudi proxy war, hasn’t worked, killing over 300,000 civilians, displacing 12 million Syrians to neighboring countries and Europe, creating the worst refugee crisis since WWII.
U.N. Amb. Nikki Haley forcefully denounced Syria for the recent chemical attacks, killing women, children and babies. She rebuked Russia for not condemning al-Assad’s barbarity, asking how many more children have to die before Russia stops backing al-Assad. Tillerson asked Russia today to “consider carefully their continued support for the Assad regime.” Whether or not Tillerson’s request changes things in Moscow is anyone’s guess. Russia has navy and army bases in Syria, making it a strategic military partner. After eight years of deteriorated U.S.-Russian relations, Trump has little clout in Syria, especially with Russia and Iran. Syrian and Russian officials denied the use of chemical weapons in Idlib. Syria and Russia also denied the well-documented chemical attacks Aug. 21, 2013 in Ghouta, Syria, causing at least 281 deaths and 3,600 non-fatal injuries.
After tilting the six-year-old Saudi-backed proxy war to his favor, al-Assad’s recent chemical attack renews calls for him to step aside. Al-Assad didn’t anticipate Trump’s strong condemnation, believing the new administration sought better ties with Russia. Trump knows that if he’s to make any progress in Syria, he has to enlist the Russians to give up on al-Assad. As with China, there’s little chance Trump pull Putin into his orbit short of ending U.S. sanctions against the Kremlin. EU Council President Donald Tusk emphatically stated after the latest gas attacks that the EU cannot accept al-Assad in power. Syria and Russia insist that the April 4 gas attack was staged by rebel groups to change Trump’s opinion about Syria. Syrian lawmaker Oamar Osse insisted that the April 4 gas attack in Khan Sheikhoun was staged by rebels to reverse U.S. policy toward Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
When Trump blames Obama for the problems in Syria, he’s not only referring to Obama’s lack of a response to his “red line” in 2013 when al-Assad gassed civilians in Ghouta, Syria. Today’s lack of leverage has more to do with deteriorated U.S.-Russian relations, something developed over Obama’s two terms. No matter how horrific the images from Idlib province, Trump must look at the big picture that renewed efforts to topple al-Assad would likely backfire. “Rather than making concessions or political gesture, the regime is further raising the stakes and the political costs for the West of not cooperating,” said Jihad Yazigi, editor-in-chief of The Syria Report. Following McCain’s military prescription could lead to a U.S.-Russian military confrontation, possibly WWIII. Trump can condemn al-Assad’s chemical attacks without shooting Cruise missiles at Damascus.
