Agreeing to a ceasefire Sept. 10, 70-year-old U.S. Secretary of State and 66-year-old Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov pulled the rug out from underneath the nearly six-year-old Syrian War. While branded by the West as a civil war, the conflict started March 11, 2011 during the Saudi-backed Arab Spring toppling Mideast dictators, Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali Jan. 14, 2011, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak Feb. 11, 2011 and Libya’s Col. Muammar Gaddafi Aug. 24, 2011. Unlike these dictators, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad put up a ferocious fight, using his Baathist military to resist a well-funded Saudi proxy war against his Shiite government. Allowing the Kerry-Lavrov truce to go into effect at 1800 GMT Sept. 12, the Saudi-backed rebel groups, like Jabhat Fateh al-Sham [former the al-Nusra Front], U.S.-backed Free Syrian Army and Saudi-backed Ahrar al-Sham, feel betrayed..
Saudi Arabia’s High Negotiation Committee insists that any lasting ceasefire must include a commitment to remove al-Assad from power. Speaking the Muslim holiday Eid al-Fitr Sept. 12, marking the end of Ramadan, al-Assad made clear that his work won’t be over until all terrorist groups were off Syrian soil. With London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights calling the Syrian War the worst humanitarian crisis since WWII, with about 300,000 deaths, 12 million refugees flooding neighboring countries and causing chaos in Europe, there’s logic to the ceasefire. Hoping the ceasefire sticks, the Saudis made clear that when Geneva Peace talks resume hosted by U.N. Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura, they must see a transition plan to remove al-Assad from power or war will resume. Kerry and Lavrov’s agreement mentions nothing about Saudi demands to remove al-Assad.
When Russian President Vladimir Putin started air strikes against Saudi-U.S.-Turkey-backed opposition groups Sept. 30, 2015, he gave al-Assad the military edge to stay in power. Kerry and Lavrov’s ceasefire agreement, without stating it publicly, accepts that al-Assad will stay in power for the foreseeable future. Saudi-backed rebel groups like Jabahat Fateh al-Sham, U.S.-backed the Free Syrian Army, Syrian Democratic Forces and hard-line Saudi-backed Ahrar al-Sham feel betrayed by Kerry, using the truce to regroup after facing almost certain defeat in Aleppo. After two previous ceasefires failed, there’s little chance this one will succeed unless Kerry and Lavrov rein in Saudi-backed opposition groups. Putin told the U.N. General Assembly Aug. 28, 2015, he considers al-Assad’s Shiite government the sovereign power in Syria worthy of defending.
Saudi-backed rebel groups have stated Sept. 12 they back the ceasefire “with harsh reservations,” not knowing whether Kerry backs their cause. Judging by Kerry’s military cooperation agreement with Moscow, it looks like the U.S. finally changed its demand to oust al-Assad. While it’s difficult to understand the White House logic backing Saudi rebel groups, Kerry’s pivot with Lavrov suggests the U.S. no longer backs toppling al-Assad. Kerry and Lavrov agreed that if the ceasefire holds for seven days, both countries would join forces to rid the region of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS] and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, formerly al-Qaeda in Syria. Saudi-funded rebel groups like Ahrar al-Sham and Syrian Democratic Forces are feeling sold out by Kerry. If and when peace talks resume in Geneva, Kerry and Lavrov will have to stand up to the Saudis, demanding an end to their proxy war.
At the heart of the Syrian ceasefire is a recognition that the Syrian War has destabilized the European Union, prompting the U.K’s June 23 Brexit vote to leave the EU. With refugees and economic migrants flooding to Europe, it raised questions about whether or not the EU can absorb the spillover from the Syrian War. Saudi Arabia takes no responsibility for funding rebel groups to topple al-Assad’s Alawite Shiite government. Kerry recognized with Putin and Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with it al-Quds forces and Hezbollah militia backing al-Assad, there’s no end to war. EU officials, led by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, are being forced to reconsider their pro-refugee stance, knowing objections of EU countries. Continuing the Saudi proxy war threatens to tear the EU apart over a war that is entirely stoppable by insisting the Saudis end the battle against al-Assad.
Kerry’s Sept. 10 ceasefire agreement with Lavrov hopes to end a nearly six-year fiasco known as the Syrian War. After watching U.S.-Russian relations plummet to Cold War lows, Obama and Kerry finally came to their senses that, with all the world’s geopolitical uncertainty, both countries need each other to preserve world order. Kerry and Russia face some tough choices when Saudi Arabia tells its proxy fighters to resume the battle against al-Assad. If Geneva talks break down again, U.S.-Russian relations should supersede past U.S. backing for Saudi rebel groups. By holding firm with Saudi Arabia in Geneva, the U.S. and Russia can pressure Saudi Arabia to back down off their nearly six-year quest to topple al-Assad. While the Arab Spring succeeded in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, it’s failed in Syria. If Obama and Putin put enough pressure on Saudi Arabia, the war will end quickly.
