Bouncing all over the map, today’s NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll showed the former neurosurgeon Ben Carson has surged ahead of formerly front-running real estate mogul Donald Trump. What the poll really shows is that possible GOP primary voters are in chaos three months from the Iowa Caucuses where evangelicals have put anti-gay, pro-life Seventh Day Adventist Carson in the lead. What’s so bizarre about the polling is that Carson lags far behind Trump when voters are asked who would better manage the economy, a key question in any presidentiall election. NBC/WSJ’s poll shows voters preferring Trump over Carson by nearly 30% when asked about the economy. Carson’s blip as front-runner appears as the GOP’s pretend acceptance of minorities, including Blacks, Asians and Hispanics, typically voting overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates.
Carson’s debate performance in last week’s CNBC debate also shows a disconnect from today’s polls, where most viewers saw Dr. Carson at his worse, speaking in more vague generalities. GOP voters don’t seem to expect specifics from either Carson or Trump, both of whom represent opposition candidates, though voters haven’t come to grips with the fact that Trump actually mirrors mainstream voters, especially the vast majority of independents. Carson’s strong opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage endears him to Iowa’s evangelicals, giving him his current bump. Trump shows little stomach for crossing the church-and-state line, something Carson does routinely to get evangelical votes. Carson’s six-point lead over Trump in the latest NBC/WSJ poll is within the four percent statistical margin-of-error, giving a flimsy picture of the real story with GOP voters.
As voters get to know Carson from his answers in the three GOP debates, they know less-and-less about him. What they knew about him before he announced for president May 3 is that he called President Barack Obama a “psychopath,” explaining the president dresses too well. Carson told reporters he believes homosexuality is a lifestyle choice because long-term inmates choose homosexuality in prison. Equating homosexuality with bestiality, Carson’s clarified his position recently, blaming the media for taking him out of context. Calling on the media to change the debate format, avoiding “gotcha questions,” Carson expressed dissatisfaction with the current debates that ask tough questions about a candidates’ background. Ben didn’t like getting asked about his affiliation with highly dubious nutritional supplement company Mannatech, claiming to cure cancer and other incurable diseases.
Candidates would all like to control the media’s questions in live debates but that defeats the media’s First Amendment right to vet the government and politicians seeking to become elected officials. Carson doesn’t like debates because he’s forced to answer questions, potentially exposing his ignorance on key issues. When he insists there are “too many debates,” he’s concerned that the more voters get to know him, the less likely he’ll be leading the pack. Unlike New Hampshire where Trump leads Carson 26% to 13%, Iowa voters favor Carson 28% to 20%. Those same voters don’t typically vote for minority candidates, despite responding to Carson’s fierce opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage. When primaries shift to more mainstream states, it’s possible that Carson’s pro-life and anti-gay-marriage stance will backfire costing him votes and approval ratings.
Since today’s NBC/WSJ poll showed Carson overtaking Trump nationally, it forced the Trump campaign to take a second look. Since last week’s debate, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fl.) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) both got a bump, largely because neither Carson nor Trump are favored by the Republican National Committee. Chairman Reince Priebus hasn’t figured out what went wrong with GOP voters, looking for outsiders, not career politicians, in this election cycle. GOP’s early front-runner, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, has dropped to eight percent in the latest NBC/WSJ poll. Candidates like Rubio and Cruz hope that voters come to their senses to back their campaigns, despite obvious vulnerabilities against Democratic front-runner former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. If the GOP opts for overly conservative candidates, they’ll have a big problem in the general election.
Carson’s sudden overtaking Trump in NBC/WSJ’s national poll says more about the fickle nature of GOP primary voters heading into Iowa’s Feb. 1 caucus. Voters know that electability is the most important characteristic—not ideological purity—if the GOP wants to return to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Carson’s latest surge represents an aberration because GOP voters know Carson isn’t electable, not, because he’s black, but because he has no clue about foreign and domestic policy. While Trump’s no policy wonk, he’s demonstrated, like other successful CEOs, a willingness to delegate important decision-making to recognized experts. Trump’s criticized Obama for his tendency toward cronyism over picking the best-and-brightest to serve in key government roles. When GOP voters get serious in 2016, they’ll vote for candidates not on extreme Party ideology but on who’s the most electable.
