Meeting with campaign donors in Houston, 62-year old former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush powwowed with his brother, former President George W. Bush and his 91-year-old father, former President George H.W. Bush, to figure out what’s gone wrong with Jeb’s campaign. Plunging from front-runner to about 6% in national polls, Jeb hopes for a miraculous comeback when 69-year-old real estate tycoon GOP front-runner Donald Trump falters, at some murky point in the campaign. Jeb’s campaign insists that when caucus or primary voters get close to voting, they’ll come to their senses. What the Bush camp doesn’t get is that, with or without Trump, or next in line retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, the catastrophe of “W’s” White House is too fresh for another Bush. Forget about the year of the outsider or anything else, voters don’t want more costly foreign wars and another Great Recession.
Holding a two-day family reunion in Houston is exactly the wrong place to figure out what went wrong with Jeb’s campaign. Less than seven years out from “W’s” White House, voters remember the Great Recession, double-digit unemployment, trillion-dollar-plus deficits and skyrocketing national debt. Jeb hasn’t faced the music that it’s not only about his awkward campaign style or periodic defenses of “W’s” foreign and domestic policy blunders, it’s about voters’ bad memories about the last Bush administration. Had Jeb waited another election cycle or two, things might have been different. “He’s been Trumped, as they all have,” said Tim Malloy of Quinnipiac University, whose recent polls show Jeb with only 5%. Jeb tried to attack Trump as a political novice, not ready for commander-in-chief but voters have just laughed the attacks, leaving Trump with a sizable lead.
Trump’s been the only leading GOP candidate to attack directly “W’s” legacy of a failed foreign and domestic policy. Trump openly says the Mideast would be a better place had “W” not toppled Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair admitted recently on CNN that mistakes were made in the Iraq war giving rise to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS]. While still insisting that toppling Saddam was the right thing to do, Blair admits that the chaos and terrorism now consuming the Middle East was related to mistakes made in Iraq. Trump, and to a lesser extent Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), have openly criticized Bush-43 for the colossal intel failure that prompted the U.S. to go to war in Iraq March 20, 2003. Democratic front-runner former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has been apologizing for voting Oct. 2, 2002 to back Bush-43’s Iraq War Resolution.
Intel failures of Sept. 11 prompted the Bush White to bypass the CIA and FBI, creating their own intel at the Pentagon’s Office of Special Plans, supplying former Secretary of State Colin L. Powell much of the faulty intel used Feb. 5, 2003 to sell the U.N. Security Council on the Iraq War. Former U.N. Chief Weapons Inspector Dr. Hans Blix begged the White House to hold off on war until he got better intel. While it’s all water under the bridge now, voters recall egregious mistakes by “W’s” administration that led to the Great Recession of 2008. Meeting in Houston, the Bush family hoped to reassure nervous donors that Jeb’s campaign had not collapsed. Recent cutbacks at Jeb’s Miami campaign headquarters signaled that the campaign’s in trouble. Hearing a “broad, big and bold optimistic message,” doesn’t match with press reports showing Jeb continuing to sink out-of-contention.
Jeb continues to tell donors that he’ll bounce back once voters realize that neither Trump nor Carson are serious candidates. “After having a fling with Trump and dating Carson, I think eventually these primary voters, I think they’ll find their way to governor Bush because they’ll learn he’s a serious, accomplished candidate with a legitimate record of governing,” said an unnamed donor, buying the family propaganda. It’s hard for campaign insiders, especially donors, to admit they backed the wrong horse. Trump dismissed Jeb’s weekend Bush-family retreat. “Meeting today with Mommy and Daddy,” according to Trump, won’t help Jeb pull his campaign from its nosedive. Bush family friends are having a hard time facing reality that there’s still too much bad blood over a new Bush presidential run. When memories fade, Jeb may have another shot sometime down the road.
Jeb’s campaign freefall stems primarily from voters still having a bad taste over his brother’s administration. Whatever Jeb’s shortcomings as a candidate, it pales in comparison to the negative publicity still surrounding the last Bush administration, leaving voters looking for something new. “He’s a guy that wants to run our country and he can eve run is own campaign,” said Trump, watching the Bush clan gather in Houston. Jeb’s problems weren’t helped when Trump baited him into defending his brother’s record in Iraq and elsewhere. Jeb has a real problem selling himself without divorcing himself from “W’s” decisions, both foreign and domestic, that led to the worst recession since the Great Depression. Jeb can only divorce himself so far before voters associate him with his brother. Trump’s done a good job reminding voters the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.
