Heading toward the first Fox News GOP debate in Cleveland, Ohio, Thursday, Aug. 6, nine top finishers in national polls, including 68-year-old real estate mogul and reality TV star Donald Trump, don’t now what to expect. Since announcing for president June 16, Trump has offended practically everyone, intimidating the media and much of the GOP field. Once considered a “carnival barker” by the Republican National Committee, recent polls show Trump leaping past GOP front-runners former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, with some polls showing Trump as high as 23% in a crowded field with 16 other competitors. When debate opens, no one knows what to expect from Trump, hoping to avoid his barbs in what amounts to the most important first impression with GOP voters. One thing’s for sure, you can bet Trump will be dressed and manicured to the nines.
Some of Trump’s most vociferous critics, like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry won’t even make it on the debate stage with Fox News, restricting participants to the 10 highest ranking candidates. Trump’s main objective in the first debate is to not make any egregious mistakes, maintaining his position as GOP front-runner. Known as weak in domestic and foreign policy, Trump must show some mastery of basic facts when it comes to the economy and foreign policy. Trump’s charisma can only carry him so far before voters begin to see that he’s not prepared for Prime Time in the Oval Office. Candidates prepare for debates on major issues confronting the economy and foreign policy. Without substance on major issues, salesmanship fades quickly, looking more like hot-air, something that hurts a candidate’s credibility—and eventually polls.
Trump’s advantage is that he comes to the first debate with a sizable lead in the polls, almost double Jeb Bush and Scott Walker. Lucky for Trump, neither of them are good policy wonks, making the comparison less dramatic. To preserve his front-runner status, Trump only needs to come away from the first debate without major gaffes, showing that he’s a serious candidate. Trump’s bigger-than-life personality helps immunize him from the ordinary ups-and-downs of other candidates, getting a ton of free publicity because of his celebrity status. Broadcast and print media sell more advertising covering celebrities like Trump, whose entourage grows with every passing day. GOP’s 2008 nominee, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), hoped other candidates would call him on the carpet for disparaging his well-known Vietnam war service, incarcerated five-and-a-half-years as a prisoner of war.
Unfortunately for more low-profile candidates, it’s a celebrity-driven culture, valuing style over substance, especially in the brief debate format. With 10 candidate on the debate stage sharing only 90 minute, it leaves little time for any detail. One-liners and quips last longer than long-winded diatribes, especially when it comes to complicated issues, like the economy or foreign policy. “I clearly would challenge some of his assertions,” McCain advised candidates. “Prepare to discuss the issues,” not realizing there’s precious little time to do that. Communication experts warn candidates not to step too far out of the their comfort zone. Jeb’s been advised to appear more aggressive, something that doesn’t fit his more laid-back personality. “Above all, you can’t out Trump Trump,” said communication expert Carmine Gallo, urging candidates to “stay in their own lane.”
Gallo sees candidates getting into trouble when they go too far off script or out of their comfort zone. “Americans like their heroes to be authentic and you’ll look like a phony if you try to match some else’s personality,” said Gallo, warning candidates not to appear disingenuous. When Reagan ran for president in 1980 against former President Jimmy Carter, the contrast in styles was dramatic. Reagan’s celebrity status and bigger-than-life personality eclipsed former President Jimmy Carter, making the chief executive look whinny and uninteresting. Unlike Reagan, Trump can’t hark back to his days in the California Governor’s mansion. Trump’s high-energy and love-of-the-camera won’t be matched by any other candidate, other than New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, if he makes it to the debate stage. Trump’s first goal is to look more presidential than the other candidates.
Heading into Cleveland, Trump tried to tamp down expectations. “I’m not a debater,” insisting he’d go into the lion’s den without lashing out at other candidates. Trump’s celebrity status precedes him as a presidential candidate, making it less important to sell his brand to the public. For less recognizable candidates, they have to sell their brand and get their point across without making mistakes. “I actually predict that Mr. Trump will be focused on policy and respectful,” said Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), who played Barack Obama in 2012 in former GOP nominee Mitt Romney’s debate preparation. Showing a more contained presidential side would throw Trump’s competitors for a loop, making him look ready for the oval office. Any flash of temper or over display of anger would make Trump’s competitors look better, whether they earn it or not.
