Hitting another brick wall in Geneva, Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohamad Javad Zarif, ended another day at the nuke table in frustration, with Iran refusing to allow spot U.N. inspections at its nuclear sites. With President Barack Obama agreeing to let Congress decide on whether or not to approve the final agreement due June 30, Iran’s stubborn position on unfettered inspections at all sites threaten to scuttle the long-awaited deal. Agreeing in principle April 2 in Lausanne, the P5+1, including U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China and Germany, hoped to nail down a final status arrangement by June 30. Ending their meeting, Kerry and Zarif hoped to let Iranian and U.S. technocrats split the differences leading to the final agreement. “The differences are still there,” said Abbas Araghchi, deputy head to Iran’s negotiating team led by Zarif.
While there’s five world powers involved in negotiations, only the U.S. and Iran have engaged in the talks. With U.S-Russian relations at a Cold War low, it exposed recently in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s defense of FIFA president Sepp Blatter’s egregious scandal, Russia backs Iran position. Promising to “resume next week at the level of deputies and experts,” Araghchi hoped for more progress but knows it’s all what works for Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei thinks it’s below Iran’s dignity to allow unfettered inspections in Iran’s secret military nuclear sites. Putting a positive spin on the latest impasse, European Union lead officials Helga Schmid hoped for the best. “”Secretary Kerry and Foreign Minister Zarif, along with their teams, had a thorough and comprehensive discussion of all of the issues today,” said an unnamed senior State Department official.
State Department officials don’t have much wiggle room with Iran on a nuke deal that’s already opposed by almost every Republican on Capitol Hill. “We are committed to working to close the remaining gaps and to staying on the schedule we’ve set forth to get this done,” said the unnamed State Department Official. Any further concessions on inspections to Iran could sabotage the June 30 deal. Speaking before the latest round of talks, Araghchi mirrored the Ayatollah’s views that it would be “out of the question” for U.N. inspectors to second-guess Iranian scientists in military sites. Iran desperately wants an end to crippling U.N. and U.S. sanctions that have damaged the Iranian economy. Getting beyond the face-saving measures to preserve its nuclear rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.
Imposing several rounds of economic sanctions since 2008, the U.N. hoped to discourage Iran from continuing its unabated nuclear enrichment programs. When Iran banned all International Atomic Energy Inspectors in 2010, the U.S. and U.N. continued to ratchet up the pressure. When former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared Iran a “nuclear state” Feb. 11, 2011, he wasn’t referring to power generation and medical isotopes. By July 25, 2012, Ahmadinejad boasted Iran hit 11,000 centrifuges, ignoring the international community’s concern about developing weapons grade uranium. Restricting Iran’s international banking activities and petroleum sales helped plunge the Iranian rial and stock market to new lows. Iran’s 66-year-old President Hassan Rouhani takes orders from Iran’s Supreme leader. If Khaemenei takes military inspections off the table, the deal could be dead.
When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of Congress March 3, his greatest concern was the lack of inspections at Iran’s nuclear military sites. President Barack Obama insists if the U.S. can’t guarantee the deal preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, then there’s no deal. Iran agreed in Lausanne April 2 to suspend a majority of enrichment activities, allaying concerns about developing weapons grade material. Iran has very little room left to prevent inspections because the deal must be approval by Congress. With the clock ticking, Zarif and Rouhani have run out of time to keep up the charade. If they don’t offer unfettered inspections of all Iran’s nuclear sites, the House and Senate will kill the deal. “We’ve been very clear that we are not contemplating an extension at this point. June 30 is the real date,” said the State Department official.
Closing on either a fiasco or a verifiable nuke deal to end Iran’s economic sanctions, the ball’s in Iran’s court to comply with IAEA inspections. Refusing inspections in “sensitive” nuclear sites won’t cut it with the U.S. Congress. Ayatollah Khamenei has demanded that U.S. and U.N. sanctions end immediately after signing the final agreement June 30. P5+1 want a “snapback” provision, allowing sanctions to activated immediately if Iran violates the terms of the agreement. “Kerry will stress to Zarif the importance of granting accesses for inspections,” said a Western diplomat. IAEAs Yukiyah Amano hinted the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty [NPT] allows for Additional Protocols, permitting “snap” inspections. When Zarif returns to Tehran to sit down with Rouhani and the Ayatollah, they know the agreement must be backed by both Houses of Congress.
