Vowing to topple Syria’s Shiite government of Bashar al-Assad, Saudi Arabia and Turkey joined forces to back the rebel insurgency to end al-Assad’s reign of terror. While over 200,000 troops and civilians have lost their lives in Syria since the Arab Spring of March 2011, al-Assad has put up fierce resistance against largely Sunni Wahhabi groups led by al-Qaeda’s Al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria seeking to topple Damascus. Backing Wahhabi groups seeking take down al-Assad, Saudi Arabia and Turkey go against Russia and Iran, vigorously defending al-Assad’s sovereignty. Russian President Vladimir Putin believes toppling al-Assad would repeat the same mistakes in Iraq with former President George W. Bush’s Iraq War, opening up the floodgates of Islamic extremism. Bringing down al-Assad would throw Syria into complete anarchy.
Saudi Arabia and Turkey see al-Assad as a common enemy. While backing the Free Syrian Army, formerly led by Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) friend Brig. Gen. Salim Idris, the White House has grave reservations about toppling al-Assad. Watching Iraq descend into a hotbed to Wahhabi extremism after toppling Saddam Hussein April 10, 2003 raises the likely outcome in Damascus. Battling Shiites in Damascus and now Shiite Houthis in Yemen, Saudi Arabia finds itself lashing out without considering the consequences of deposing al-Assad. Turkey backs the Muslim Brotherhood in their fight against al-Assad, despite Egyptian President Gen. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi banning the Brotherhood and its Palestinian offshoot Hamas in Egypt Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants Saudi Arabia to join the fight against al-Assad, directly pitting them against Iran and Russia.
Supplying arms and Iranian-backed Lebanese forces called Hezbollah, Putin wants al-Assad to stay put to protect against another power vacuum that could spread more terrorism in Syria. “The key is that the Saudis are no longer working against the opposition,” said an unnamed Turkish official. Joining forces against al-Assad, Saudi Arabia and Turkey pit themselves against Putin, paving the way for better U.S.-Kremlin relations. Joining forces against al-Assad, Turkey and Saudi Arabia align themselves with ISIS and al-Qaeda’s al-Nusra Front. Since the civil war broke out in Syria March 11, 2011, Obama has been reluctant to join Sunni insurgent group seeking to topple al-Assad’s Shiite government. Apart from despising al-Assad’s authoritarian rule, Wahhabi groups seeking to eradicate Shiite governments, whether found in Damascus, Tehran or, more recently, in Yemen.
Launching an air war against Iranian-backed Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen, Saudi Arabia can’t prioritize its military goals. Joining forces with Turkey against al-Assad, Saudi Arabia opted to alienate Iran and Russia, both of which have been key trading partners. Fighting a proxy war against Iran in Syria, Saudi Arabia’s King Salman can’t decide which side of the fence to get on. If he battles al-Assad, he’s made an enemy of Iran and Russia, both seeking regional stability over punishing al-Assad for his brutal tactics, including using chemical weapons to hang onto power. “It’s a different world now in Syria, because the Saudi pocketbook has opened and the Americans can’t tell them not to do it,” said Joshua Landis, from the Center for Mideast Studies at the University of Oklahoma. With the Saudis and Turks joining the fight against al-Assad, the U.S. strategy gets more complicated.
Prevailing wisdom with Capitol Hill Republicans, led by Senate Armed Services Chairman Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), was to topple al-Assad. Any superficial analysis of what happened in Iraq gives the White House reason to pause. When you look at the regional and geopolitics, developing betters relations with Russia and Iran should take precedence over joining a Sunni-Shiite sectarian war. White House officials must decide what’s more important to U.S. interests: Joining the Turks’ and Saudis’ proxy war against al-Assad or developing better relations with Tehran and Moscow. Turkey and Saudi Arabia back a rebel group known as Ahrar al-Sham, hoping they won’t inadvertently support al-Qaeda’s al-Nusra Front or ISIS, both hoping to install a radical Sunni caliphate in Damascus. When you look at al-Assad’s regime, it looks mild in comparison to radical Wahhabi groups.
Battling al-Assad in Syria and Houthis in Yemen, Saudi Arabia’s begun to spread itself too thin to accomplish its regional goal of establishing a Sunni state in Damascus. Neither Turkey nor Saudi Arabia has considered the obvious consequences of driving al-Assad from Damascus. All they need to do is look at what happened in Iraq. Backing Ahrar al-Sham is no guarantee that if al-Assad falls the region won’t fall to ISIS or al-Qaeda. “The cautionary tale is that every power in the Middle East has tried to harness the power of Islamists to their own ends,” said Landis, hinting that Saudi Arabia and Turkey recent effort could backfire. Before Obama gets on the wrong side of the battle, he should reconsider the regional and global importance of Russia and Iran to U.S. national security. Joining the fight against al-Assad only boosts the chances that Syria would fall to radical Islam.
