Long-awaited flattening of the coronavirus, AKA SARS CoV-2 or Covid19, curve appears to be happening in New York, the so-called epicenter of the disease with 13,689 total cases, 7,671 new cases and 4,758 deaths or a mortality rate of 3.4%, well below the world average of 5.5%. Extreme social distancing or “shelter in place” orders have slowed the spread of the virus, which, theoretically, has no life of its own, only lives through community spread. If you had everyone at distance or quarantined, the virus would disappear over time, when patients with existing infections either got better or died. President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, who head the Coronavirus Task Force, are seeing numbers that suggest New York has begun to level off. With New York the epicenter, with the bulk of U.S. cases and deaths, that would spell progress for eipidemiologists fighting the outbreak.
With or without aggressive intervention through social distancing, the epidemic would eventually end, as all epidemics do. Extreme social distancing measures have slowed the virus in California from running wild. When California Gov. Gavin Newson said March 19 that 25.5 million of the State’s 39.56 million residents or 60% could get infected in eight weeks, it was based on computer modeling from the Bill Gates-funded University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation [IHME]. Whether Newsom used it as a scare tactic is anyone’s guess. Over the last two weeks, it’s no accident that California has leveled out at 15,401 total cases, 364 new cases and 357 deaths or a mortality rate of 2.3%, far lower than predicted by the IHME model. When you consider IHME original forecasts, it’s outrageous that any professional forecasting service could get things so wrong.
Trump is faced with a big dilemma continuing the government’s “shelter in place” orders or start to open up parts of the country. Trump’s current “stay at home” order goes through April 30, at which time if the numbers continue to improve and decline, he’ll make the decision to reopen parts of the country. “We are beginning to see the glimmers of progress,” Pence said at Sunday’s White House briefing. “The experts will tell me not to jump to any conclusions, and I’m not, but like your president I’m an optimistic person and I’m hopeful.” Pence said. Pence should have clarified that any past forecasts of 100,00 to 200,000 U.S. deaths are not longer valid, with the U.S. at 10,714 deaths with the epidemic starting to slow down. Trump’s 64-year-old State Department immunologist Dr. Deborah Birx has been way off interpreting IHME models that way overestimated U.S. casualties for the SARS CoV-2 epidemic.
Trump’s medical team on the Coronavirus Task Force led by 80-year-old Dr. Anthony Fauci doesn’t want to send the public anything to relax the current “shelter in place” orders. Trump has said the cure or shutting down the economy has been worse than the disease. Trump has a bigger decision than his medical team that only thinks about stopping the epidemic, not consequences to the U.S. economy. If you look at Wall Street today with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rocketed up 1,627.46 points to 22,679.99 or 7.73% it makes you think that insiders are reading the same reports as Trump and Pence about the outbreak slowing. Whether today’s gains hold is anyone’s guess because Wall Street makes it profits minute-by-minute not like long-term investors stuck in pension funds, 401(k)s or IRAs. Buying low and selling high has always been Wall Street’s way of making money.
Signs that the coronavirus outbreak could be slowing are showing signs of life on Wall Street trading floors. With today’s gains, the market is only 24% off its record high set Feb. 4 before SARS CoV-2 epidemic shut everything down. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said today that the numbers show that state may have reached a “plateau,” with Sunday’s 594 daily coronavirus cases on down from Saturday by 36. Wall Street sits in the epicenter of the crisis and knows when things are starting to turn around. With 7,671 new cases today bringing the total to 130,639, it’s a small fraction of New York’s 19.378 million residents. “We’re seeing things that we don’t even report because we think it’s too early to report,” Trump said Sunday, hinting that the so-called curve is starting to flatten. “I think we’re seeing things that are very good,” trying to be positive, recognizing his medical team isn’t there yet.
Trump and Pence’s positive statements about the coronavirus crisis leveling off won’t be shared by their medical experts, who must keep the pedal-to-the-metal when it comes to social distancing. With nationwide “shelter in place orders” having an impact slowing down the epidemic, Surgeon General Jerome Adams compared the current death toll to Pearl Harbor and Sept. 11. How that relates to what Trump and Pence see as a leveling off the outbreak is anyone’s guess. For whatever it’s worth, 64-year-old mega-billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates and 53-year-old billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman see light at the end of the tunnel. Judging by Wall Streets big move upward today, they’re reading the tea leaves the same way. No one wants to stop the government’s “shelter in place” orders yet but it’s clear that the country’s getting over the hump in the coronavirus crisis.
