Heading to summit in Tehran Fridayt to deal with the impending anti-terrorist operation in Idlib, Syria, Russia,Turkey and Iran hope to find a way to avoid a humanitarian disaster. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad wants to deliver a final death blow to Saudi Arabia’s seven-year-old proxy war in Syria. President Donald Trump warned al-Assad to avoid using chemical weapons or face the U.S. military again. At the same time, Trump isn’t inclined to save the Free Syrian Army or its offshoot Saudi-backed Syrian Democrats Forces, the groups supported by former President Barack Obama and the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) who poured millions into the Saudi proxy war. Trump knows that once Russian President Vladimir Putin joined al-Assad’s effort to protect his sovereignty Sept. 30, 2015, the Saudi proxy war lost his its steam, turning in al-Assad’s favor.
Obama, at McCain’s urging, continued to back Syrian rebels, hoping to turn the tide back to anti-al-Assad forces. Neither Obama nor McCain could admit failure in Syria, even after Trump took office Jan. 30, 2018. Trump sees no role in Syria battling various insurgent groups, joined by a common objective of ousting al-Assad. “I think it’s a very sad situation in Idlib, the province, what’s going on there,” said Trump in the Oval Office meeting with Emir of Kuwait. “If it’s a slaughter, the world’s going to be very, very angry. And the United States is going to be very, very angry too.” Yet despite Trump’s apparent warning about a slaughter, he’s abandoned Saudi proxy war, letting rebel groups battle if need be to the end, now that they’ve taken Idlib as a refuge. After backing the Saudi proxy war against al-Assad, French President Emmanuel Macron recognizes the U.S. policy change.
Idlib houses around 3 million civilians in addition to some 20,000-30,000 rebels and terrorists, imbedded within the civilian population. Like other parts of Syria where rebels held safe havens, like Aleppo, the Syrian army has no intention of ceding territory to Saudi-backed rebels. Saudi Arabia’s 33-year old Defense Minister Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir have openly said they will never stop trying to oust al-Assad. While Trump continues to maintain close ties to Saudi Arabia, Bin Salman has been put on notice that the U.S. no longer backs the proxy war against al-Assad. Whatever happens now in Idlib, it’s up to the warring factions to work it out, not the U.S. to militarily intervene. If the meeting Friday in Tehran proves successful, Syria and Russia will allow militant groups to disarm and leave Syria.
Because militant groups have nowhere to go, they’re likely to martyr themselves, dragging civilians into the crossfire. As long as al-Assad avoids chemical weapons, Trump won’t stop Syria’s attempt to rid his country of militant groups. When Russia, Turkey and Iran meet Friday, they’ll propose the Aleppo solution, offering rebels a way out of Syria before an inevitable massacre takes place. With superior air power, Russia and Syria will turn Idlib into a rock pile like they did in Aleppo and other parts of Syria, before driving rebels out. While the U.N. and European Union show great concern now, they’ve backed the Saudi proxy war for the last seven years. U.N. Special Syrian peace Envoy Staffan de Mistura wasted two years placating the Saudi High Negotiation Commission, while barely disguising support for various rebel groups trying to topple al-Assad.
Trump needs to be very careful assessing whether the Syrian army uses chemical weapons. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has accused Syrian rebel groups using chemical weapons on its own people to trigger U.S involvement. With Idlib’s Syrian rebels last stand, they’re poised to take desperate measures, including using chemical weapons. “Let us be clear, if remains our firm stance that if President Bashar al-Assad chooses to use chemical weapons, the United States and our allies will respond swiftly and appropriately,” said a White House statement. All indications point to the U.S. staying far removed from any military intervention in Syria to save what’s left of the same Syrian rebels once wholeheartedly backed by Obama, McCain and other anti-al-Assad members of the Senate and House Armed Services Committees.
With Russian, Turkey and Iran trying to find a way out for what’s left of Syrian rebels and terrorists, the clock is ticking on what looks like the final battle in Syria. After driven out of every other safe have in Syria, Saudi-backed rebels have run out of real estate, now facing extinction by the Syrian army and Russian air force. All the messages from the White House tell Syria and Russia they have the green light to finish off the seven-year-old Saudi proxy war. After killing about 500,000, displacing 12 million Syrians to neighboring countries and Europe and creating the worst humanitarian crisis since WW II, the world wants the war over. If Syrian rebels and terrorist groups want to avoid a massacre, they need to heed the exit plan offered by the Russian, Turkish and Iranian summit. If rebels and terrorists chose to fight, there’s nothing the U.S., EU or U.N. can do about it.
