Stating the official State Department position that the U.S. wants Syrian President Bashar al-Assad out of Damascus, 65-year-old Rex Tillerson pits the U.S. against Russian President Vladimir Putin. President Donald Trump stated many times during the campaign that he could accept al-Assad staying in power, preferring instead to deal with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS] and reset U.S.-Russian relations. Trump criticized former President Barack Obama for backing the failed seven-year-old proxy war to oust al-Assad from power. Saudi Arabia’s High Negotiation Commission, working with U.N. Special Syrian Envoy Staffan de Mistura, refuses to accept al-Assad as the leader of Syria. Tillerson’s pivot is either at odds with Trump or reflects a new position now that ISIS has been ousted from Mosul, Iraq and Raqqa, Syria. Backing al-Assad’s removal, Tillerson directly pits the U.S. against Moscow.
Since the Saudi-backed Arab Spring started in Jan. 2011 with the fall of the Tunisian government, al-Assad has fought a determined Saudi-U.S.-Turkey backed uprising. When ISIS seized some 30% of Syria in the summer of 2014, al-Assad lost much of his power-base, retaining only areas around Damascus. Saudi-backed rebels, lumped into the Free Syrian Army, had al-Assad on the run until Putin joined the fight Sept. 30, 2015, committing Russia’s formidable air-assets to attack Saudi-backed insurgents. Tillerson insists U.S. policy has not changed since Trump took office Jan. 20, 2017. But if you paid attention to Trump’s view of Syria, he wasn’t calling for regime change in Damascus. “We do not believe there is a future for the Assad regime, the Assad family,” said Tillerson today.
Tillerson’s remarks contradict Trump’s stated views on Syria, namely, that pitting the U.S. against Moscow was counterproductive. Obama backed the Saudi proxy war in Syria for six years, causing nearly 300.000 deaths, driving millions more into exile, causing the worst humanitarian crisis since WW II. Floods of Syrian refugees crossed into Europe, eventually driving British voters to reject the European Union June 23, 2016. Tillerson’s pivot, pitting the U.S. against Moscow and Iran in Syria, represents a continuation of the Obama policy, not Trump’s. “I think I’ve said it on a number of occasions. The reign of the Assad family is coming to an end, and the only issue is how should that be brought about,” said Tillerson, knowing seven years of Saudi-U.S.-Turkey proxy war failed to get rid of al-Assad. Al-Assad’s reign is more secure today with Russian backing than anytime over the last seven years.
Tillerson hopes that de Mistura, who has zero power to bring about regime change in Damascus, reconvenes his Saudi-backed peace process to pressure al-Assad to leave Damascus. Any meeting by de Mistura in Geneva, whether or not backed by the U.S., can’t succeed unless Putin and Iran’s Supreme LeaderAyatollah al-Khamenei agree to abandon al-Assad. Tillerson’s statements rehash empty demands of the Saudi High Negotiation Commission led by 55-year-old U.S.-educated Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir. Tillerson knows that as long as Russia and Iran back al-Assad, he’ll remain in power. Saudi-backed rebel groups like the Free Syrian Army were crushed by Russia and Iran, driven out of their bastion in Aleppo Dec. 16, 2016. Convening de Mistura’s peace talks again in Genevea makes no sense. Trump isn’t willing to open up a new front in Syria to get rid of al-Aasad.
Stating his regime change position in Damascus, Tillerson puts the U.S. out on a limb, pitting the U.S. against Russia, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia. Whether admitted to or not, Trump has bigger fish to fry in North Korea, needing Moscow to help mitigate chances of a military confrontation with Pyongyang. Stating his regime change position in Damascus, Tillerson makes reconciling with Russia next to impossible. While there’s no mood on Capitol Hill to improve U.S.-Russian relations, having better relations with help greatly dealing with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un. Tillerson surely knows that the Obama policy backing the seven-year-old Saudi proxy war has got the U.S. nowhere. Trump offered a refreshing pivot away from confronting Moscow in Syria, something former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton wanted to do setting up a no-fly zone.
Before Tillerson drives U.S.-Russian relations into oblivion, he should rethink the U.S. policy in Syria. Rubber-stamping Saudi Arabia’s seven-year-old proxy war is a recipe for more failure. If Moscow looks comfortable for the time being with al-Assad, the U.S. shouldn’t rejoin de Mistura’s failed talks in Geneva. De Mistura has done nothing other than back the failed Saudi proxy war, something that got Obama into trouble in Syria. As long as Moscow and Iran back al-Assad, it’s fruitless backing more anti-al-Assad rebels in Syria. Washington should find more common ground with Moscow to help mitigate the crisis on the Korean Peninsula. If there’s any way Putin can join Chinese President Xi Jingping to put pressure on North Korea to disarm its nukes and ballistic missiles, the U.S. should take the opportunity. Continuing the Obama policy getS only more tension and failure.
